what if?

[Kamran Abbasi]

what if muslim countries stop supplying oil to western countries.What will be impact on those countries (Europe,canada,USA).? Only talk about these please.

 

[HAIDER]

what if muslim countries stop supplying oil to western countries.What will be impact on those countries (Europe,canada,USA).? Only talk about these please.

They use horse carts and bicycle ...

 

[Maarkhoor]

what if muslim countries stop supplying oil to western countries.What will be impact on those countries (Europe,canada,USA).? Only talk about these please.

Nothing would happen Bhutto and Shah Faisal tried it and as a result both got killed by their own people.

To avoid such situation US already have captured Iraqi oil reserved plus others and have sufficient oil reserves. Nothing would happen but in that quest oil producing Muslim countries cripple their own economy and regime.

It is foolish to think that stoppage of oil would punish US and others.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Lets debunk that idea

Present Age reality
USA is present day , largest creator of Oil / Petroleum Products in world market
They have not touched their own reserves for over 40-50 years so that they can use it when oil Prices sky rocket

USA has also authorized extracting oil from Sea , which further enhances it's production capacity. While this increases the risk of Earth Quakes , USA is not worried about that and continues to promote shale which is dangerous to coastal cities

USA is not part of OPEC , a world organization to control Oil production so oil does not crashes

USA produces it's own Rules it decides when it can crash oil prices and when it won't


Saudia / USA cooperation
3 Years ago when Iran sanctions were lifted and Iranian oil came back online in Market , World Wide oil prices crashed as there was too much oil in market. So USA/Saudia devised a plan to bring back sanctions on Iran , and they would take up any Market share lost by Iran

Under that agreement 200-300 Billion in weapons were bought from USA by Saudia and USA promised to reimpose sanctions on Iran. Then of course Saudia Announced the 2030 Vision plan to reduce it's reliance of oil

As part of deal Saudia was given some access to invest in US refineries and Saudia was interested to sell off their largest Oil Company for foreigners (you know the J who were interested to buy shares of Saudi Aramco )


Russia + Opec:
Russia has from time to time in recent years 10 years or so has shown willingness to work with Opec countries to keep oil production at a controllable pace.

Russia has shown willingness to mix Iranian Oil with Russian oil and distribute that oil in markets to offset sanctions on Iran

Ukraine was one of Russia's biggest gas purchasers was pressured into reducing purchases from Russia even when Russia was doing it a favor and letting them get cheap gas

Europe:
Gets it's goods from Russia or Central Asia , however USA has been pressuring Europe to have a rift with Russia so that it can sell their oil / gas to Europe and starve Russians for finances




The Big Picture:
OPEC countries suffering

• Venezuela Oil ~ is restricted due to sanctions and USA sells it's own Oil in market

• Iran oil ~ is sanctioned and restricted to so Raised prices mean US get more $$$$

• Nigerian oil fields ~they constantly go online and offline due to civil war or who knows who pays the vandals to bomb oil fields to raise oil prices

 

[war&peace]

USA has huge reserves of oil and it can extract from shale as well. However, Europe will suffer or they will go running to Russia for oil and lick Putin's boots.

 

[Proudpakistaniguy]

what if muslim countries stop supplying oil to western countries.What will be impact on those countries (Europe,canada,USA).? Only talk about these please.

They are actually selling oil and if they stop selling it then they will also be hurting themselves more than anyone else because most of these oil proudcing coutries in Middle East is economically dependent upon western trade

 

[YeBeWarned]

What if West stop supplying Weapons to Muslims ?

 

[BHarwana]

If Muslim countries stop supplying oil to west they have no solution for it because USA has it oil but extracting that oil is expensive for USA. There are alternates to this and those are Russian oil and Venezuela but they are the worst enemies of USA so they are pretty much stuck.

Price of oil for rest of the world will come down where oil will cost more in USA. If this continues for a year the production cost and inflation in USA will sky rocket thus many Americans will lose jobs and China will be the biggest gainer in this along with India Pakistan Japan and so on. Petri dollar will collapse in 2 years time and world will shift to yuan. The next step USA will take is to remove sanctions from Iran and try to give power to iran to play it against Saudis but that would also not help much as Iranian are already too much engaged with China after total pulling out of oil sector.

What if West stop supplying Weapons to Muslims ?

The weapons will be sold by China Russia Pakistan and Turkey and so on.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

USA has tones of oil but they use a limited supply from their own wells
Plus they have expanded into Shale Oil

There will be no shortage of Fossil Fuel for next 5,000 years in world
Based on quantities of Oil in Iran/Saudia/USA/Canada/Russia

A majority of Arab Oil is partly owned by US firms they help drill provide security and in return $$$ Go into US economy it's a Business relation

 

[YeBeWarned]

The weapons will be sold by China Russia Pakistan and Turkey and so on.

Pakistan gets it Military technology from west , there is no cutting edge Tech which Pakistan can provide which West is .. lets not fool ourselves here, Without Weapons from the west no Islamic Country can even fight India .

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

US could enjoy a fantastic relation in Islamic world however they are now run by Jews and this there is chaos in Muslim world wars and chaos

Jews are primarily interested in Land acquisition in Middle East Expand their borders
And even Turkey is able to sense the rising danger on their borders

• Take over Jordan
• Take over Syria
• Expand into Saudia
• Expand into Iraq
• Remind Egypt they have part of their land

Things have changed in Middle east it is about Land Grab now, Americans themselves have no interest to live in Desert and see no value in it but it is their 5% owners who run the show or call the shots

"Colonization"

Perhaps my analysis is flawed but at a high level it is not about Oil but more about Land and changing population Dynamics in region

"Depopulation"


But I could be wrong

 

[FalconStar]

This has to be a really stupid thing to even discuss, if these countries do this, their economies will collapse within a couple of months. As you would know none of these countries even produce a single thing apart from Oil.
Every single thing is imported. Having Oil and not selling it doesn't make you a genius or a super power it turn your country into Venezuela.
And if you don't remember when Brent Crude hit less than $50 a Barrel, Saudi budget went into deficit of $97 Billion in 2015-16.

This video gives a pretty good explanation of what's actually going on and not some thought up fantasy.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

90's:
World Oil Production , Pre Gulf War
All Countries had a Limited Share

Sanctions came on Iraqi Oil they were turned into poor nation

• Saudis paid a Massive Ransom to Americans to help Save them in First Gulf war

00's:
More sanctions on Iraqi Oil
More sanctions on Irani Oil
War with Iraq

<OIL ROSE NOW THERE IS LITTLE OIL IN MARKET>

Oil ...GOES UP $100 Massive profits made by oil sector

Saudia increased production
Russia increased production
USA increased production

USA burned tones of Fuel in Afghanistan/Libya / Iraq pilled up debt

10's:
Libiyan Oil decomissioned

Iran Sanctions lifted, iran makes some $$$$ by selling oil, however their oil production is same level as Saudis

<OIL CRASHED NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH OIL IN MARKET>

• Russia not happy
• Saudis worried about their budget
• Americans in USA happy oil is low but their government wants oil to rise as companies start to go bankrupt
• Canadian Oil based community feels pressure due to falling oil prices

2017-Present
Iran Oil sanctions back imposed
Venezuela faces sanctions
Nigerian Oil comes online and offline
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saudis increased oil production
USA increased production
Russia carries on business as usual
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Europeans liked oil prices when Iran oil was online so they are going wait a second
we can get cheap oil if Iranian oil is back bring it back


Every one had a piece of pie until recently when some confusion arose around Turkey/Saudia and Washington Post writer

• Either Saudia refused to Pay more free money to USA or something happened behind the scene after Saudia decided to buy Russian S-300 weapons

 

[Indus Pakistan]

To avoid such situation US

It would have almost no effect on USA. It produces nearly 40% of oil at home and then imports from Canada, Latin America, Africa making up 87%. Only 13% comes from Muslim countries. The 13% could easily be sourced from other locations.

 

[Nefarious]

Their people will all get freedom.