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What If 24 Su-35 bought by China are for PAF ? Just my thoughts

When China had been given exclusive access to Gawader and at no instance it was ever stated that this access is not at all militarily. Which further incurs that China would for sure deploy its Naval and Aerial assets in this area. Which brings us to final question wheter those assets esp the aerial ones would be SU-35s or any other Chinese Naval aircraft.
I totally agree with Sir @Beast .
 
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I will sure celebrate when i'll see the Su-35 in PAF with Pakistani flag on it :D :D

first jet to be delivered in 2016 to China :D :D

With so much money China spending on J-15 J-16 and J-11 also J-31 J20 J-10 why would china need just 24 Su-35? Engines? China is also making engines
 
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Contradiction yet facts, still 50% cheaper than Typhoon.
true its cheaper than the typhoon but the su-35is too advanced to be sold to pakistan yet. india will not be able to sleep.and that may come with consequences of less orders for weapons in the future for russia. the only jet pakistan can get is more f16s new or old it almost certain and the j10 series which is unlikely as its only good for a stop gap. and thats no good.
 
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A very Islamabad term known as "Chuss".
That is also the term first used when first mention of PAF link to SU-35 in 2013 by me which proves the rumour turns substantial.
 
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I know many will think my conclusion is daring and outrageous but please read through my well thought analysis. From the events to date, you all can slowly see how the events unfold and how are they related one to another especially the date are so close.

First of all, lets look at this event
Pakistan set to sign 40-year lease for Gwadar port with Chinese company: officials - The Express Tribune

President Xi visit Pakistan in april 2015 to sign the mega USD46 billion deal that is one of the largest and most ambition plan for China Pakistan. A plan China hope can boast Pakistan economy while at the same time ,make China less reliance on Strait of Malacca for import of fuel. Despite the massive investment, Pakistan is a sovereign nation and regards to responsible of protecting Gwadar port still lies on Pakistan.

The best way to protect this port is to have an fighter aircraft capable of neutralise coming airthreat from huge Indian Ocean while at the same time capable of striking the enemy at a projected range. These puts Su-27 series aircraft in the foreline. It is an aircraft with exceptional range given its huge size, massive payload of at least 9tons ammunition carries. Most of all, a very agile aircraft despite it huge airframe. The twin engine will also ensure better survival in case one engine breaks down. Su-35 touted the most advance Sukhoi series with air superiority, ground and sea attack is an attractive option for PAF. While we do know China produces the Su-27 series aircraft domestically under J-XX series with license from Russian for 200 airframe. But in terms of license issue interpretation to China and Russian is always an issue for both in the 2000s times. It was finally settle in 2008 when Russian president Dmitry Medvedev visited China and both agree on the issue. China was allowed to continue produce as much J-XX series of Su-27 lineage as she deemed but not allow to export any of this lineage to compete with Russian.
Russia and China Dispute Intellectual Property - Kommersant Moscow
This will means Pakistan is not able to get any of China modify or made Su-27 series aircraft and the only possible way to obtain such heavy weight fighter is to buy from Russian made.


Then we look at another piece of interesting news this September.
Pak-Russia talks on delivery of Su-35, Mi-35s underway: Russian Deputy FM - Pakistan - DAWN.COM
Russian Deputy FM comfirmed interest and talks regard to purchase of SU-35 by PAF although not much detailed is mention due to the sensitivity of selling Russian most advance Su-27 series to PAF against Russian biggest arm buyer ,India. Russian is eager to expand its shrinking aviation export and the fact, IAF is looking more towards the west with purchase of 36 Rafale. Russian needs to look at all potential customers and PAF is definitely one of them. Russian in past has export a number of weapon systems or equipment to PAF like RD-93 engines, Mi-17 and possible Mi-35 gunship with success. RD-93 engine which is critical to JF-17 project is only possible through the blessing of China acting as middle man to shut India complaint of Russia export weapons to Pakistan, India arch rival.

Finally, we look at this new.
China will get first Russian Su-35 fighters in 2016
China after talking about buying Su-35 for almost 5 years finally inked the deal recently and most importantly, the urgent timing of the delivery in 2016 plus a small amount of SU-35 purchase, raise an eyebrow.

Why China purchase only 24 Su-35 since China is such a big and rich country? She definitely needs more than 24 Su-35 if she needs to defend her land and sea. But some critics will argue China purchase a minimum of 24 Su-35 just to get their hands on reverse engineering of critical component like 117S engine. But lets look at some other facts.
国产心脏终于行了:太行发动机一技术让美羡慕 - 中网资讯中心

This is an extract from an interview with Lin zuoming, Chairman of AVIC who comment on WS-10 'Taihang" engine series. He mention WS-10 series engine in the latest version WS-10B has surpassed Russian engine technology in terms of lifespan, performance and reliability and claim the latest version of Taihang engine can produce 140Ktons while Russian 117S is just a slight mere of 142Ktons thrust as compare.
Saturn AL-31 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Why would China spend so much trouble just to get an almost similar performance and spec engine? Then some critics will argue besides the engine, the other sub systems may interested the Chinese like PESA radar onboard. Lets look at another aircraft currently in development and will enter series soon.

View attachment 273536

You can see the aircraft spotted with WS-10 series engine and a slanted nose cone suggesting AESA radar. China produced J-XX series aircraft are using high level of composite and 3D printing which proves the airframe superior in any aspect compare to Russian Su-35 in terms of structure strength,weight and lifespan.

Chinese Military Aviation: Fighters II

Another aircraft with slanted cone and is due to be in service is the J-10B which comfirms spotted with an AESA radar proves J-11D has the same AESA radar(more powerful due to bigger size)from the same institute.
View attachment 273537

Then this question comes into your mind. Why would China purchase 24 Su-35 when China has better option like J-11D? I think I need not tell you the answer where these 24 Su-35 will go to.

And please do not ask for comfirmation of China purchase 24 Su-35 transfer to PAF. Since this is an under table deal. There will not be any official statement regards the transfer. You will see it when these Su-35 started working on PAF airbase or spotted with PAF ensign. By going these route, Russian can shelve all problem to the Chinese and need no answer to India allegation of export advance weapon system to Pakistan while at the same time opening up another market for its shrinking aviation export and market the Su-35 for more potential customers.
@Beast interesting writeup. all of it makes sense but there is one thing bugging me. if you claim that china does not need the su-35 for its own use then need then dont you think that russia would have figured out that china is just a middle man. also i think its premature for one to say theywill b sent to pakistan.IF hypothetically what you say is correct then once they are delivered to china they will be stripped and china and will be Reverse engineer any components it needs to and then reassemble it and send it to pakistan. with the possibility of implementing Chinese or western weapons.

a long range jet is good for pakistan and they need one, but i dont see a third party transfer any possibility even if it is china deifying russia.

A very Islamabad term known as "Chuss".
what does that mean?
 
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@Beast interesting writeup. all of it makes sense but there is one thing bugging me. if you claim that china does not need the su-35 for its own use then need then dont you think that russia would have figured out that china is just a middle man. also i think its premature for one to say theywill b sent to pakistan.IF hypothetically what you say is correct then once they are delivered to china they will be stripped and china and will be Reverse engineer any components it needs to and then reassemble it and send it to pakistan. with the possibility of implementing Chinese or western weapons.

a long range jet is good for pakistan and they need one, but i dont see a third party transfer any possibility even if it is china deifying russia.

Basically, Russian and Chinese already know before hand and gang up in these deal to benefit each others. Russian got the money and fulfil the promise to India. While Chinese become the devil but serve her interest of increasing the strength of her allies which is Pakistan and her abilities to defend herself especially Gwadar port.

Its a stone to kill 2 birds
 
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Basically, Russian and Chinese already know before hand and gang up in these deal to benefit each others. Russian got the money and fulfil the promise to India. While Chinese become the devil but serve her interest of increasing the strength of her allies which is Pakistan and her abilities to defend herself especially Gwadar port.

Its a stone to kill 2 birds
so to put it straight, russia knows china is giving the su-35 to pakistan. and russia will pretend it knows nothing about it and will keep neutral to keep india happy and be on china's good books.
 
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so to put it straight, russia knows china is giving the su-35 to pakistan. and russia will pretend it knows nothing about it and will keep neutral to keep india happy and be on china's good books.
Bingo!

End of the day, Russian will just claimed the 24 plane is in Chinese hand and there is nothing Russian can do anything to Chinese. :D There is rumour the Su-35 will modify by Russian to able to fire Chinese ammunition and Chinese datalink. Since weapons appearance cannot be disguised. The Chinese will continue be the supplier of PAF Su-35 ammunition. But when comes to spare of Su-35, Russia will still be the maintenance country for PAF Su-35 since India will not know PAF received further spare for engines for avionics from Russia. Russia will push all blame to Chinese and all maintenance of PAF Su-35 are done by Chinese since they are the expert of Reverse engineer. There is no way India can verify spares are from China or Russia. :D
 
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Bingo!

End of the day, Russian will just claimed the 24 plane is in Chinese hand and there is nothing Russian can do anything to Chinese. :D There is rumour the Su-35 will modify by Russian to able to fire Chinese ammunition and Chinese datalink. Since weapons appearance cannot be disguised. The Chinese will continue be the supplier of PAF Su-35 ammunition. But when comes to spare of Su-35, Russia will still be the maintenance country for PAF Su-35 since India will not know PAF received further spare for engines for avionics from Russia. Russia will push all blame to Chinese and all maintenance of PAF Su-35 are done by Chinese since they are the expert of Reverse engineer. There is no way India can verify spares are from China or Russia. :D
mmmm its devious enough to work i guess. but shhhhh dont tell anyone, word out is that there are some indian members here too, including those who work for iaf.
 
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true its cheaper than the typhoon but the su-35is too advanced to be sold to pakistan yet. india will not be able to sleep.and that may come with consequences of less orders for weapons in the future for russia. the only jet pakistan can get is more f16s new or old it almost certain and the j10 series which is unlikely as its only good for a stop gap. and thats no good.
yes Su-35 is cheaper because its is produced by a single country Russia.
yes Typhoon is expensive because Typhoon is a Assembly kit of a consoritum of half dozzon of countries.
 
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yes Su-35 is cheaper because its is produced by a single country Russia.
yes Typhoon is expensive because Typhoon is a Assembly kit of a consoritum of half dozzon of countries.

China is paying about $83.3 million per Su-35. How much are Typhoons?

so to put it straight, russia knows china is giving the su-35 to pakistan. and russia will pretend it knows nothing about it and will keep neutral to keep india happy and be on china's good books.

And India will simply look on while all this is happening? If this is what Russia planning to do it is risking a lot, including deals that are much more than the 24 Su-35s being sold to China.
 
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I know many will think my conclusion is daring and outrageous.... [snip]
.... By going these route, Russian can shelve all problem to the Chinese and need no answer to India allegation of export advance weapon system to Pakistan while at the same time opening up another market for its shrinking aviation export and market the Su-35 for more potential customers.
Man. Beast, excellent analysis and well thought-out conclusion. It would be a clever move by Russia if they indeed went ahead to go via China. A move that India can't do jack all about it.
 
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