What does China think about Kashmir. My POV

[Foggy_Bottom]

Hi. Some of you know my background from the initial introduction I made when I joined these forums. And those who did not read it, pretty much assumed my background from the name I've taken here. Something you may missed all the same, was that my background and the theater I was specifically deployed to was the South Asia Theater, specifically Afghanistan / Pakistan and India.

While I’ve been here, I've been struggling with what areas I go into, discuss openly without compromising privileged conversations and communications. Let's face it, even after retirement I'm obliged to keep silent on the very many interactions I've been honored to have as US State department employee.

There some areas I can speak to in broad strokes and I've been thinking that I should here. Forewarning- the nature of these forthcoming posts you may find very cryptic and opaque.

Having stated that - I would like to start introducing and hope to do this from time to time, posts that speak to this specific region and my experiences when dealing with the various diplomatic corps, think thanks and what I qualify as deeply ingrained and deeply experienced people with knowledge of this region.

Here is my snippet about China's stance on Kashmir. Much of this has been behind closed doors and you won't see it being discussed in the media often.

China is wary of the Kashmir issue and is trying to balance their act of being a good ally with Pakistan- when it comes to stating their support. Very rarely will you see China speak on Kashmir and support Pakistan’s position all out. Rather most for what you will official see is at best a tactic support.

The reason for this and what I've encountered is twofold:
On one end, China does not want to open the Pandora’s Box to then give any sort of legitimacy to groups in Taiwan, HK, Tibet and SCS. Can you imagine a plebiscite call or any U.N negotiations in those regions?

On the other end, they do not want to write off India. For China to be successful as far their global ambitions go, they truly need India to be their Canada, if not a somewhat prickly Mexico.

Feel free to discuss the merit of what I submitted, and I'll try to answer as much as can.

 

[The Great One]

Hi. Some of you know my background from the initial introduction I made when I joined these forums. And those who did not read it, pretty much assumed my background from the name I've taken here. Something you may missed all the same, was that my background and the theater I was specifically deployed to was the South Asia Theater, specifically Afghanistan / Pakistan and India.

While I’ve been here, I've been struggling with what areas I go into, discuss openly without compromising privileged conversations and communications. Let's face it, even after retirement I'm obliged to keep silent on the very many interactions I've been honored to have as US State department employee.

There some areas I can speak to in broad strokes and I've been thinking that I should here. Forewarning- the nature of these forthcoming posts you may find very cryptic and opaque.

Having stated that - I would like to start introducing and hope to do this from time to time, posts that speak to this specific region and my experiences when dealing with the various diplomatic corps, think thanks and what I qualify as deeply ingrained and deeply experienced people with knowledge of this region.

Here is my snippet about China's stance on Kashmir. Much of this has been behind closed doors and you won't see it being discussed in the media often.

China is wary of the Kashmir issue and is trying to balance their act of being a good ally with Pakistan- when it comes to stating their support. Very rarely will you see China speak on Kashmir and support Pakistan’s position all out. Rather most for what you will official see is at best a tactic support.

The reason for this and what I've encountered is twofold:
On one end, China does not want to open the Pandora’s Box to then give any sort of legitimacy to groups in Taiwan, HK, Tibet and SCS. Can you imagine a plebiscite call or any U.N negotiations in those regions?

On the other end, they do not want to write off India. For China to be successful as far their global ambitions go, they truly need India to be their Canada, if not a somewhat prickly Mexico.

Feel free to discuss the merit of what I submitted, and I'll try to answer as much as can.

I think they already wrote us off back when they supplied nukes and missiles to Pakistan. They actively oppose us on all international fora - NSG, UNSC etc (except the ones for climate change ). India couldn't have realized this sooner and is fortunately embracing the West. I just wish it happen faster.

Also, how dare you compare us with Canada

 

[Kompromat]

I believe Pakistan's position on Kashmir is wrong. It would be much better to rally the international community behind the Pakistan Administered Kashmir for a free and fair referendum. If AJK chooses to become an independent state and India doesn't reciprocate by holding a referendum in Indian administered Kashmir, it would become easier and more legitimate for an independent AJK to take its narrative to the international community for 'reunification'. In my opinion the Kashmir issue is very similar to the East and West Germany. Both parts were administered by two different powers with conflicting interests, the area was heavily militarized and the real people suffering from it were the German people. In Kashmir the Kashmiri people suffer from the conflicting interests of Pakistan and India. The ideal solution that will stand the test of time is the reunification of Kashmir into a new and sovereign nation state. If that happens, the very long held dream of ''breakfast in Dehli, Lunch in Islamabad and dinner in Kabul can be realised ''.

 

[Roybot]

I believe Pakistan's position on Kashmir is wrong. It would be much better to rally the international community behind the Pakistan Administered Kashmir for a free and fair referendum. If AJK chooses to become an independent state and India doesn't reciprocate by holding a referendum in Indian administered Kashmir, it would become easier and more legitimate for an independent AJK to take its narrative to the international community for 'reunification'. In my opinion the Kashmir issue is very similar to the East and West Germany. Both parts were administered by two different powers with conflicting interests, the area was heavily militarized and the real people suffering from it were the German people. In Kashmir the Kashmiri people suffer from the conflicting interests of Pakistan and India. The ideal solution that will stand the test of time is the reunification of Kashmir into a new and sovereign nation state. If that happens, the very long held dream of ''breakfast in Dehli, Lunch in Islamabad and dinner in Kabul can be realised ''.

Why just AJK? What about the Gilgit-Baltistan region?

 

[Kompromat]

Why just AJK? What about the Gilgit-Baltistan region?

Gilgit Baltistan region wants to become a Pakistani province. I believe they too should have a referendum to set this thing straight.

 

[third eye]

I believe Pakistan's position on Kashmir is wrong. It would be much better to rally the international community behind the Pakistan Administered Kashmir for a free and fair referendum. If AJK chooses to become an independent state and India doesn't reciprocate by holding a referendum in Indian administered Kashmir, it would become easier and more legitimate for an independent AJK to take its narrative to the international community for 'reunification'. In my opinion the Kashmir issue is very similar to the East and West Germany. Both parts were administered by two different powers with conflicting interests, the area was heavily militarized and the real people suffering from it were the German people. In Kashmir the Kashmiri people suffer from the conflicting interests of Pakistan and India. The ideal solution that will stand the test of time is the reunification of Kashmir into a new and sovereign nation state. If that happens, the very long held dream of ''breakfast in Dehli, Lunch in Islamabad and dinner in Kabul can be realised ''.

I agree with the part in bold above.

The referendum is obsolete,the state assembly .On February 15, 1954 the state assembly members who were present cast a unanimous vote ratifying the state's accession to India. Constitution was drafted which came into force on January 26, 1957. Part II, section (3) of the constitution states 'The State of Jammu and Kashmir is and shall be an integral part of the Union of India'.In 1956 the Constituent Assembly finalised its constitution, which declared the whole of the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir to be 'an integral part of the Union of India'. Elections were held the next year for a Legislative Assembly. This section cannot be legally amended as per provisions of Part XII of the constitution.

India has moved on. Pak may like to do so.

 

[Foggy_Bottom]

I believe Pakistan's position on Kashmir is wrong. It would be much better to rally the international community behind the Pakistan Administered Kashmir for a free and fair referendum. If AJK chooses to become an independent state and India doesn't reciprocate by holding a referendum in Indian administered Kashmir, it would become easier and more legitimate for an independent AJK to take its narrative to the international community for 'reunification'. In my opinion the Kashmir issue is very similar to the East and West Germany. Both parts were administered by two different powers with conflicting interests, the area was heavily militarized and the real people suffering from it were the German people. In Kashmir the Kashmiri people suffer from the conflicting interests of Pakistan and India. The ideal solution that will stand the test of time is the reunification of Kashmir into a new and sovereign nation state. If that happens, the very long held dream of ''breakfast in Dehli, Lunch in Islamabad and dinner in Kabul can be realised ''.

Hi. Now I will ask you to tell me which is East Germany in this case in Kashmir.

East Germany, there was a failing government, atrocious economy, conditions, and absolutely no desire among East Germans to take part in any elections in East Germany. East germany went back to the original country they were 1st broken off from.

Secondly, I can't tell you how much there is no way, no how, no chance for international intervention on this. Nobody is going to do it, nobody wants to do it, and not even a single permanent security council member is keen on it. You have to come to terms on this honestly. I'm sorry.

 

[Kompromat]

Hi. Now I will ask you to tell me which is East Germany in this case in Kashmir.

East Germany, there was a failing government, atrocious economy, conditions, and absolutely no desire among East Germans to take part in any elections in East Germany. East germany went back to the original country they were 1st broken off from.

Secondly, I can't tell you how much there is no way, no how, no chance for international intervention on this. Nobody is going to do it, nobody wants to do it, and not even a single permanent security council member is keen on it. You have to come to terms on this honestly. I'm sorry.

In other words the international community is cooking up another war.

 

[The Great One]

I believe Pakistan's position on Kashmir is wrong. It would be much better to rally the international community behind the Pakistan Administered Kashmir for a free and fair referendum. If AJK chooses to become an independent state and India doesn't reciprocate by holding a referendum in Indian administered Kashmir, it would become easier and more legitimate for an independent AJK to take its narrative to the international community for 'reunification'. In my opinion the Kashmir issue is very similar to the East and West Germany. Both parts were administered by two different powers with conflicting interests, the area was heavily militarized and the real people suffering from it were the German people. In Kashmir the Kashmiri people suffer from the conflicting interests of Pakistan and India. The ideal solution that will stand the test of time is the reunification of Kashmir into a new and sovereign nation state. If that happens, the very long held dream of ''breakfast in Dehli, Lunch in Islamabad and dinner in Kabul can be realised ''.

I appreciate the sentiments but a plebiscite is no more an option. Pakistan has already granted non-Kashmiris the right to buy land and settle in AJK and GB. Not to mention the land ceded to China.

 

[Kompromat]

I agree with the part in bold above.

The referendum is obsolete,the state assembly .On February 15, 1954 the state assembly members who were present cast a unanimous vote ratifying the state's accession to India. Constitution was drafted which came into force on January 26, 1957. Part II, section (3) of the constitution states 'The State of Jammu and Kashmir is and shall be an integral part of the Union of India'.In 1956 the Constituent Assembly finalised its constitution, which declared the whole of the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir to be 'an integral part of the Union of India'. Elections were held the next year for a Legislative Assembly. This section cannot be legally amended as per provisions of Part XII of the constitution.

India has moved on. Pak may like to do so.

Its due to uber nationalist people like you, no progress has been made so far.

I appreciate the sentiments but a plebiscite is no more an option. Pakistan has already granted non-Kashmiris the right to buy land and settle in AJK and GB. Not to mention the land ceded to China.

Pakistanis can't buy lands in Kashmir

 

[Genesis]

China is wary of the Kashmir issue and is trying to balance their act of being a good ally with Pakistan- when it comes to stating their support. Very rarely will you see China speak on Kashmir and support Pakistan’s position all out. Rather most for what you will official see is at best a tactic support.

Support to what end? Is Pakistan able to make a move? Is this a core issue for China? Is this even a core issue for Pakistan anymore?

Also, if you were to ask 100 people in China their opinion on Kashmir, you get the same answer, where?

The reason for this and what I've encountered is twofold:
On one end, China does not want to open the Pandora’s Box to then give any sort of legitimacy to groups in Taiwan, HK, Tibet and SCS. Can you imagine a plebiscite call or any U.N negotiations in those regions?

Second, being in such a position, what is your opinion on Tibet? You really think they will break away? Even if we do give them the chance?

Taiwan and HK wants to break away regardless, but I don't think no legitimacy was the thing that kept them here, is it.

South China Sea isn't a nation, I'm not sure how it can be independent, thus not getting the reference here.

On the other end, they do not want to write off India. For China to be successful as far their global ambitions go, they truly need India to be their Canada, if not a somewhat prickly Mexico.

Feel free to discuss the merit of what I submitted, and I'll try to answer as much as can.

I'm pretty sure India wants to be the America to our Canada, whether that's doable is ify, but I doubt they want to be seen as weaker to us.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Why just AJK? What about the Gilgit-Baltistan region?

Not going to happen. That's annexed. Also a huge chunk now belongs to China. Delusions are apparent.

 

[Foggy_Bottom]

In other words the international community is cooking up another war.

There is not going to be war unless we see another 26/11. Which if it were to happen, would mean Pakistan would be heavily sanctioned and isolated. Even then, it will be a limited engagement ( mini war), and there is no chance of Pakistan using any nuclear weapons because of the limited nature of the engagement.

There is only one way for both countries and most importantly for Pakistan to get back to being economy focused and successful. That is accepting current boundaries.

I've had this discussion a hundred times with different people in different governments. Sixty plus years = statute of limitations has expired.

This thing has run its course.

 

[Dash]

In other words the international community is cooking up another war.

May be, but war or no war both dont server their interest. So its negated. Hence the logic to rally international community to hold a referendum in AJK or even GIlgit-Baltistan is of no use! It is a bilateral issue btn India and Pak.

Your diplomats know this very well.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Its due to uber nationalist people like you, no progress has been made so far.
Pakistanis can't buy lands in Kashmir

They can buy in GB. Plus, China has a huge chunk of territory. A large part of it

And the policy is national policy and a part of our Constitution. Not only that, it forms one of the pillars of the Constitution, meaning which - it can't be altered. Uber nationalism or lack of it has nothing to do with it. To change the status quo, India needs to cease to exist. That is the only realistic solution.