What does Biden Presidency mean for East Asia?

[Beidou2020]

Biden win means some breathing space for China. Biden will be tough on China but the left is not as nationalistic as the right. Biden will fight with Russia and get into fighting with Assad. China will have more time to catch up. With Trump, Pompeo, Navarro out of the picture, this is a win for China.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

My bet:

the US will rejoin Tpp.
Thanks heavens Vietnam as Tpp member is offered a huge opportunity.
We will export cars. We will flood the US with cheap but high quality products.

What are your bets?

Biden would want the U.S. to rejoin Trans-Pacific Partnership, leading China watcher says

The U.S. election is still very much in play, but a victory by Joe Biden would likely see him wanting the U.S. back in the TPP in some new form, says a Harvard professor.

www.cnbc.com

i bet the days when companies used Vietnam to evade US tariff may be over soon.
To early for WETDREAMS.

Here is another scenario.
If President Joe Biden revoke Trump trade war and all of his exec orders as he promised to do, what do you think will happens to all these nations with the temporary advantages removed.

Can Vietnam make high quality stuff, forgive my ignorance?
Malaysia PROTON a more established car maker than newbie Vinfast, sell 5~6 times more cars in a month than Vietnam cannot even export to USA. Vinfast can do that.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I can't help but say that your predictions are as delusional as that guy who said WW3 will start in October, in regards to your claim that Vietnam "will flood the US with cheap but high-quality cars".

At least @Feng Leng is funny. This is just sad.

How can these three words: vn, high quality, and cars come together???

I can't stop laughing at VinDiesel. What a wasted opportunity that they didn't go with that name.

 

[hualushui]

no TPP

 

[8888888888888]

Pity that Trump lost

 

[Whizzack]

Biden wins! Well... good thing that China has long prepared a city for him..!

 

[bshifter]

I cannot believe that idiot @Viet still believes in the possibility of the TPP revival. It died with Obama's administration where Biden was part of it. Trying to revive means digging a deeper grave this time, what is the purpose when it is already buried deep underground.

Right now the US has a lot of internal issues. It will not sit well for the Trump supporters, population is divided like never before. Country is in a total mess, pandemic out of control.

Biden's performance will be worse than Obama. Many issues stacked up against him. He is way too old, he has an explosive home based pandemic to deal with, many jobs are lost because of Covid and how the virus having a grip on the local economy.

Forget about the rapprochement with Russia, he's as anti Russia as Obama is and the whole Democratic Party.
Policy in dealing with North Korea remains pretty much the same. Tense relation between Japan and South Korea will continue to give US a headache. Taiwan gov is telling the population to stay calm with Trump out of the office, i guess many Taiwanese loves Trump whatever the reason. Trudeau is opening the champagne to celebrate Trump's exit. Will he get a break from Biden and able to release Meng? Nothing tense will happen in South China Sea or Taiwan Strait but FONOP will probably be around, The QUAD squad? Most likely disband leaving India and Australia at China's mercy. Merkel and Macron are jumping and dancing as if they had won the jackpot.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

tariff war to be over soon

 

[xuxu1457]

most Chinese believes that Trump's election is more beneficial to China.

Trump leaves America without friends

 

[bshifter]

most Chinese believes that Trump's election is more beneficial to China.

Trump leaves America without friends

I don't think it really matters, made in 2025 is not going to derail. After Biden you don't know who is the successor. This policy is set in stone, cannot put faith in global supply chain when Trump already disrupted it. Self sufficiency and self reliance will be immune to tech sanction.

 

[Viet]

I cannot believe that idiot @Viet still believes in the possibility of the TPP revival. It died with Obama's administration where Biden was part of it. Trying to revive means digging a deeper grave this time, what is the purpose when it is already buried deep underground.

Right now the US has a lot of internal issues. It will not sit well for the Trump supporters, population is divided like never before. Country is in a total mess, pandemic out of control.

Biden's performance will be worse than Obama. Many issues stacked up against him. He is way too old, he has an explosive home based pandemic to deal with, many jobs are lost because of Covid and how the virus having a grip on the local economy.

Forget about the rapprochement with Russia, he's as anti Russia as Obama is and the whole Democratic Party.
Policy in dealing with North Korea remains pretty much the same. Tense relation between Japan and South Korea will continue to give US a headache. Taiwan gov is telling the population to stay calm with Trump out of the office, i guess many Taiwanese loves Trump whatever the reason. Trudeau is opening the champagne to celebrate Trump's exit. Will he get a break from Biden and able to release Meng? Nothing tense will happen in South China Sea or Taiwan Strait but FONOP will probably be around, The QUAD squad? Most likely disband leaving India and Australia at China's mercy. Merkel and Macron are jumping and dancing as if they had won the jackpot.

The US needs Tpp. That is the only way to take on China on economic front. US, JP and the nations of the Pacific must come together. Factories must go to friends. Trump made a tragic mistake when he withdrew from the treaty. Ok I know you don’t like Tpp. If I am chinese I don’t like either.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

My bet:

the US will rejoin Tpp.
Thanks heavens Vietnam as Tpp member is offered a huge opportunity.
We will export cars. We will flood the US with cheap but high quality products.

What are your bets?

Biden would want the U.S. to rejoin Trans-Pacific Partnership, leading China watcher says

The U.S. election is still very much in play, but a victory by Joe Biden would likely see him wanting the U.S. back in the TPP in some new form, says a Harvard professor.

www.cnbc.com

TPP might be effective against the 2017 China, but not effective against the 2021 China.

The success to contain against the coronavirus has awarded us with more strength ever than before.

China's strength will easily double down in every four years, and the original TPP will not be that useful anymore.

All I can thank is that President Trump (soon to become a former one) to waste four TPP-free years for us.

Not sure where your getting the $16T number for China’s economy. China’s GDP was $14.3T at the end of 2019 and has grown only 0.2% through the first 9 months of the year. Their not close to $16T.

Based on the prediction made by the IMF:

US 2021 GDP = 21.9 trillion

China 2021 GDP = 16.5 trillion

List of countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

China's GDP will become higher because the strong RMB and weak USD (overprinted multi-trillions for the pandemic relief and economic woe).

Biden win means some breathing space for China. Biden will be tough on China but the left is not as nationalistic as the right. Biden will fight with Russia and get into fighting with Assad. China will have more time to catch up. With Trump, Pompeo, Navarro out of the picture, this is a win for China.

Because those far-right lunatics are absolutely suicidal.

They'd rather sacrifice many of the US high tech companies in order to destroy Huawei at any cost.

They are looking for MAD with China.

However, they got absolutely annihilated by the coronavirus in 2020.

And I doubt that Trump would be capable to launch a second round of economic warfare against China even he got re-elected.

The coronavirus has strengthening China and weakening the US by a lot.

The post-coronavirus will definitely turn the US into an underdog, regardless with Trump or Biden.

The US needs healing because of this unprecedented devastation caused by both trade war and coronavirus, that's why they choose Biden this time.

It is not that they want to be merciful to China, it is because they cannot afford to play the hardball game anymore.

 

[Viet]

TPP might be effective against the 2017 China, but not effective against the 2021 China.

The success to contain against the coronavirus has awarded us with more strength ever than before.

China's strength will easily double down in every four years, and the original TPP will not be that useful anymore.

All I can thank is that President Trump (soon to become a former one) to waste four TPP-free years for us.


Based on the prediction made by the IMF:

US 2021 GDP = 21.9 trillion

China 2021 GDP = 16.5 trillion

List of countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

China's GDP will become higher because the strong RMB and weak USD (overprinted multi-trillions for the pandemic relief and economic woe).

Tiger, it’s never too late. Biden has the chance to correct the mistakes Trump made. Trump created a mess. Most Vietnamese including myself supported Trump because he pushed factories into Vietnam. However when he created chaos everywhere, when he alienated friends and allies, many Vietnamese turned against him. Biden can correct this. You shouldn’t laugh too early. China’s biggest problem: you have money but no friends. Biden should keep tariffs on chinese goods. The US should encourage factories to relocate to us. I am pretty sure, we can make everything China makes. The dollar still dominates the world. The Yuan is still no where to see.

 

[patero]

Not sure where your getting the $16T number for China’s economy. China’s GDP was $14.3T at the end of 2019 and has grown only 0.2% through the first 9 months of the year. Their not close to $16T.

I follow analysts such as Kyle Bass (Hayman Capital) and Leland Millar ( China Beige Book), their estimates of China's real gdp numbers are from 2008-2016 an average of 2% less than official numbers, around 3% less from 2016-2019 whilst 2020 is going to be even worse. Their methodology is quite robust including a broad range of indicators such as tax filings. By those calculations, China's actual gdp is approx 25% lower than reported, which would equal $14.3T - $3.6t = $10.7t up to 2019.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Tiger, it’s never too late. Biden has the chance to correct the mistakes Trump made. Trump created a mess. Most Vietnamese including myself supported Trump because he pushed factories into Vietnam. However when he created chaos everywhere, when he alienated friends and allies, many Vietnamese turned against him. Biden can correct this. You shouldn’t laugh too early. China’s biggest problem: you have money but no friends. Biden should keep tariffs on chinese goods. The US should encourage factories to relocate to us. I am pretty sure, we can make everything China makes. The dollar still dominates the world. The Yuan is still no where to see.

China has been adapted with the US tariff now, and our export has not been diminished and currency becomes even stronger.

And our domestic market is poised to overtake the US market every soon, and we are not that dependent with the US trade anymore.

Vietnam is too small to supplant China in every area.

You don't have the adequate infrastructure, and your supply chain still depends on us.