That's correct bro.
It's just illiterate to compare Public Debt (Government Dedt) to Total Debt. For debt loaned to companies and individuals, we have a term for it "
Domestic Credit To Private Sector". Note it is not "
Public Debt", which usually has to be managed vs GDP or Tax Revenue, and you can dig deeper in this agenda, in China's case it's well under control. Check below link or other open sources.
About significant increase in Domestic Credit to Private Sector, it's a lot more complicated as usual:
- It's driven by even faster growing M1/M2 money supply (货币供应) for the period 2008-2015, i.e. quantitative easing (check US for the same period). More liquidity, more debt, are injected into the economy.
- Also, the huge trade surpluses in form of forex, and inbound FDI, sold to PBOC further increase money supply. This compulsory buying of Forex is a state policy (强制结汇).
- RMB appreciation expectation (人民币升值预期) brought in hot money.
- Note, alot of credits go into infrastructure/CAPEX of long pay-back period (回本期), check China's massive addition of infrastructures since 2008. The overall scale is not a problem, the credits are hedged by ever expanding assets.
- It's a good news to the vibrant small-to-medium POE which have been sidelined by SOE before.
- China has been developing the banking industry, bond/credit market, gradually. The most developed markets include US (195%), HKSAR (233%), UK (141%), Singapore (132%), etc. Shanghai is developing fast.
- If you still want a comparison vs GDP, check some benchmarks from World Bank:
On Pubic Debt, there is also major difference between debt hold by domestic investors, and those hold by foreign investors (foreign creditors). For Japan's case, it's primarily hold by Japanese investors, denominated in home currency, the problems are mostly confined within the country. For countries with debts hold by foreign investors, denominated in forex, then the pressures are more complicated, e.g. affects its credit in international bond market, currency instability, pressure on debt servicing in forex reserves.
On Net International Investment Position, here is a sample:
Japan is a creditor nation, largest in the world for the past 24 years in a row. China is second to Japan if only Mainland is accounted, but overtakes Japan if HK, Macau & Taiwan are included.
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