What ails the Indian economy?

[Sully3]

India needed a Rahul Ghandi put ended up with Modi

All of Menmohans good work down the drain

Right now for the world the hottest news coming out of India isn't economic growth like the past but instead the rise of Hindutva right wing society.

 

[wiseone2]

India needed a Rahul Ghandi put ended up with Modi

All of Menmohans good work down the drain

Right now for the world the hottest news coming out of India isn't economic growth like the past but instead the rise of Hindutva right wing society.

if you like Rahul Gandhi please take him as your Prime minister

 

[pothead]

 

[deckingraj]

The output of agriculture may be 18%. That does not mean 18% of population is involved in agriculture.

833 million people live in villages. 377 million people live in cities. That is 68% of population in villages. I will let you decide what % of the workforce is involved in agriculture.

Dude now this is the third time you are mentioning the same thing...where did i even remotely deny that a large percentage of the population work in Agriculture?? What it has to do with our GDP to be 5-6%...how are these connected?? ...I even asked you a pointed question....is there a labor shortage because large population is involved in Agriculture?? This is the basic essence of economics...when there will be better opportunities available people will move to those venues...if you don't believe me check if the number of farmers in India increasing or decreasing...if you want i can share that data as well...let me know...

agriculture can be mechanized. but where will be the labor go ? That dictates the speed and face of mechanization in agriculture.

you are not going to have a sustained 7% economic growth rate with 50%+ in agriculture

Again ...i think you are making a fundamental mistake here...why are you making an assumption that 50% of workforce will stay in Agriculture forever?? And also we have had a sustained period of high growth before 2008 and UPA scams ruined us for good..no??

b/w this 50% figure is questionable as well...http://www.hindustantimes.com/india...really-have/story-431phtct5O9xZSjEr6HODJ.html

 

[wiseone2]

Dude now this is the third time you are mentioning the same thing...where did i even remotely deny that a large percentage of the population work in Agriculture?? What it has to do with our GDP to be 5-6%...how are these connected?? ...I even asked you a pointed question....is there a labor shortage because large population is involved in Agriculture?? This is the basic essence of economics...when there will be better opportunities available people will move to those venues...if you don't believe me check if the number of farmers in India increasing or decreasing...if you want i can share that data as well...let me know...


Again ...i think you are making a fundamental mistake here...why are you making an assumption that 50% of workforce will stay in Agriculture forever?? And also we have had a sustained period of high growth before 2008 and UPA scams ruined us for good..no??

b/w this 50% figure is questionable as well...http://www.hindustantimes.com/india...really-have/story-431phtct5O9xZSjEr6HODJ.html

You mentioned agriculture is 18% of the GDP.

The census data does not lie. 68% live in villages. Most of people in villages work on agriculture. Some people commute to nearby cities from villages.

Mechanizing agriculture will take 2-10 years. The problem is creating jobs for 250 million plus who lose their living

 

[deckingraj]

You mentioned agriculture is 18% of the GDP.

The census data does not lie. 68% live in villages. Most of people in villages work on agriculture. Some people commute to nearby cities from villages.

Mechanizing agriculture will take 2-10 years. The problem is creating jobs for 250 million plus who lose their living

Ummm now i am not sure what are we even discussing....so let me refresh that....you said India's GDP growth of 5-6% is what we can achieve in a sustained manner and the reason for it is - High volume employed by Agriculture...i am challenging it and saying that we can grow at 8-10% in a sustained manner....Agriculture play no role in stopping us from achieving it...

Now let's come back to your Machanizing agriculture....let me make it blunt...this is not going to happen....not even Modi will have the guts to do it...and if he can't do it, then i don't see any other chap having even half of courage that Modi has displayed....and this is where your high number of jobs will perfectly come into picture....India is no where close to absorbing such a large number of people in other areas...and this is where it is very important for us to grow at brisk pace....and to be honest time is running out...Once this AI(Artificial Intelligence) actually comes into effect, this advantage of cheap and plenty labor will evaporate pretty quick....we only have couple of decades to set our house in order....or else just pray that this AI turns out to be a hoax

 

[wiseone2]

Ummm now i am not sure what are we even discussing....so let me refresh that....you said India's GDP growth of 5-6% is what we can achieve in a sustained manner and the reason for it is - High volume employed by Agriculture...i am challenging it and saying that we can grow at 8-10% in a sustained manner....Agriculture play no role in stopping us from achieving it...

Now let's come back to your Machanizing agriculture....let me make it blunt...this is not going to happen....not even Modi will have the guts to do it...and if he can't do it, then i don't see any other chap having even half of courage that Modi has displayed....and this is where your high number of jobs will perfectly come into picture....India is no where close to absorbing such a large number of people in other areas...and this is where it is very important for us to grow at brisk pace....and to be honest time is running out...Once this AI(Artificial Intelligence) actually comes into effect, this advantage of cheap and plenty labor will evaporate pretty quick....we only have couple of decades to set our house in order....or else just pray that this AI turns out to be a hoax

When 50% of your population is in agriculture it is hard to grow at 8% in sustained manner

Just because some economist or some false flag chinese poster farts around saying you need 7% for sustained growth and lift your masses out of poverty it is not going to happen.

It is not entirely up to politicians to decide about mechanizing agriculture. as a society we need to be prepared for it.

AI is for real. I work in the area. I see it coming.

 

[Nilgiri]

agriculture can be mechanized. but where will be the labor go ?

If there is demand pull in industry and services....the towns and cities. Refer to Tamil Nadu which now has urbanisation around 50% (5 years back itself)....and agricultural workforce going below 30% and TFR well below replacement (around 1.6) and infant mortality rate around 18 per 1000.

This will have to be the model for rest of India....better bureaucracy (resilient to top level politics) and better investment and realised delivery of education and healthcare. Freemarket will do the rest. TN is coming to the point that much raw labour (be it agri or blue collar trades and simple serviecs) is now coming from the North and East of India and providing competition against the mechanisation process given just the abundance of supply and low wages/living requirement of those areas. Maharashtra + Gujarat follows this TN model now with their own specifics too....hence they also witnessing Bihar + UP influx of raw more menial labour.

Where this demand pull of industry and services is not quite there in cities (mostly due to bad interference and intrusion in free market dynamics), we have Kerala +Southern Karnataka Model where the surplus labour is exported to Middle East (and again the domestic void is somewhat filled by northern labourers as much as freemarket "slack" can absorb). But again the basic driver that prompted it was again investment and delivery of education and health and sound public welfare etc. North and East India interiors (past big cities like Delhi and fertile plains of Punjab/Haryana) have really missed some basics...they should now catch up and hopefully they use TN model rather than Kerala model as we cannot and should not be exporting our labour (in best prime years esp) anymore as viable strategy for long term development. This needs more market reform to create better production (of industry and services) in cities and towns, but first and foremost the basic bureaucracy threshold to deliver guaranteed quality health and education where at least a strong argument can be made for market failure + public good theory.

 

[wiseone2]

If there is demand pull in industry and services....the towns and cities. Refer to Tamil Nadu which now has urbanisation around 50% (5 years back itself)....and agricultural workforce going below 30% and TFR well below replacement (around 1.6) and infant mortality rate around 18 per 1000.

Tamilnadu has lot of people working in Singapore, Middle East, USA and other places. It is a coastal state with two ports, functional state government and decent industrial base. Good luck replicating that in UP, Bihar and MP.

This will have to be the model for rest of India....better bureaucracy (resilient to top level politics) and better investment and realised delivery of education and healthcare. Freemarket will do the rest. TN is coming to the point that much raw labour (be it agri or blue collar trades and simple serviecs) is now coming from the North and East of India and providing competition against the mechanisation process given just the abundance of supply and low wages/living requirement of those areas. Maharashtra + Gujarat follows this TN model now with their own specifics too....hence they also witnessing Bihar + UP influx of raw more menial labour.

The supply of menial labor from UP and Bihar can be unlimited reducing the need for automation

 

[deckingraj]

When 50% of your population is in agriculture it is hard to grow at 8% in sustained manner
Now we are talking...as said time in again...that 50% of population(please correct this 50% figure as it is a myth) is not in agriculture out of choice. They will move(and moving) to better opportunities as and when they are coming. Today there are more daily wage labours(and increasing) working on farms then owner's themselves. Please refer to link i shared earlier...

Just because some economist or some false flag chinese poster farts around saying you need 7% for sustained growth and lift your masses out of poverty it is not going to happen.

Why you are so much fixated on this false flag Chinese poster?? We surely need to reach 8% consistent growth and then moving towards double digit...there is no other way out...

It is not entirely up to politicians to decide about mechanizing agriculture. as a society we need to be prepared for it.

Even if the society is ready politician wont bring it in...because there will be a massive flux, which is too much to handle for any party...check what happened to Land Acquisition Bill..Modi and Co realized that it is too hot to handle...though every single economist(real one and not these politically motivated leeches) very well knew how important it is for economy to kickstart....

AI is for real. I work in the area. I see it coming.

Which makes it even more important to make most of our asset "Abundant and cheep labor"..no?

 

[NoOne'sBoy]

ya'll got to make bare fat stacks fam otherwise ya'll gonna be trippin like them bitches in NYC. aint nobody gonna be eating them shit if you dont give them work and the kids gonna be shooting up at each other and will turn into a venezuela. i went to india once, it's mad dusty and crowded. i wondered how long does it take for ya'll to get them high standards of livin. i wanted to even stay behind and rap like tupac in india about poverty and shit, swear down fam

 

[ashok321]

GST is a mountain, and SMEs can’t scale it without some support

 

[wiseone2]

are you denying 50% of people are engaged in low productivity jobs in villages ?

 

[Nilgiri]

Tamilnadu has lot of people working in Singapore, Middle East, USA and other places. It is a coastal state with two ports, functional state government and decent industrial base. Good luck replicating that in UP, Bihar and MP.

I am talking things as basic as schools, hospitals, village roads, canals etc... that were started in TN when it was much poorer than UP and Bihar (both in todays terms and also back then). Public infra delivery with a basic bureaucracy that people can rate/vote and make better over time (no matter who is running the state at top level) is simply lacking to large degree in ganges valley. Yes these states simply cannot follow a model of overseas deployment, even Kerala which exports the most is a low overall % if you churn the data. But the thing is you need to improve human capital in first place to get at any later model of whatever internal/external presence it will follow.

Without that, the rest of the conversation (ports, labour deployment) is not even up for discussion in first place. BTW TN has much larger local labour retention (as many as do work outside its small %) compared to Kerala because there is much more industry and services in TN cities. More of that has to be done across India once the human capital in its more heavily populated areas is improved to standards at least seen in south and west today. This needs free market to operate better and more efficiently since its resource velocity vectors are 2nd to none overall.

The supply of menial labor from UP and Bihar can be unlimited reducing the need for automation

Free market would need them to prove what their productivity is compared to ROI ramp for capital investment that can replace/compete with them (most brutal comparison is why not give all construction labourers spoons instead of spades to simply employ more to do the same result). Again it needs good basic human capital development.

 

[wiseone2]

I am talking things as basic as schools, hospitals, village roads, canals etc... that were started in TN when it was much poorer than UP and Bihar (both in todays terms and also back then). Public infra delivery with a basic bureaucracy that people can rate/vote and make better over time (no matter who is running the state at top level) is simply lacking to large degree in ganges valley. Yes these states simply cannot follow a model of overseas deployment, even Kerala which exports the most is a low overall % if you churn the data. But the thing is you need to improve human capital in first place to get at any later model of whatever internal/external presence it will follow.

Without that, the rest of the conversation (ports, labour deployment) is not even up for discussion in first place. BTW TN has much larger local labour retention (as many as do work outside its small %) compared to Kerala because there is much more industry and services in TN cities. More of that has to be done across India once the human capital in its more heavily populated areas is improved to standards at least seen in south and west today. This needs free market to operate better and more efficiently since its resource velocity vectors are 2nd to none overall.



Free market would need them to prove what their productivity is compared to ROI ramp for capital investment that can replace/compete with them. Again it needs good basic human capital development.

UP/Bihar human resources development lags behind Tamilnadu. Even if they caught up on human development the physical infrastructure like access to ports cannot be fixed