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eff Wasserstrom is a self-proclaimed China specialist who is seriously considering never returning to China -- at least, he says, not while President Xi Jinping is in power.
The American professor, who for decades made multiple trips a year to China and was last there in 2018, hasn't focused his career on Tibet or Taiwan -- lightning-rod issues which attract Beijing's ire at lightning-quick speed -- but he has written about cultural diversity and student protests in mainland China, and appeared on panels with people he says the Communist Party is "clearly upset with."
Three years ago, that made the California-based academic wonder if his visa application to China might be rejected.
Today, it makes him consider whether crossing the border risks his indefinite arbitrary detention. The chance of that outcome, Wasserstrom says, might be "pretty minimal," but the consequences are so grave -- those detained can be locked up for years without contact with their families or a trial date -- he is not willing to gamble.
And he is not alone.
More than a dozen academics, NGO workers and media professionals CNN spoke to, who in pre-Covid times regularly traveled to China, said they were unwilling to do this once the pandemic restrictions lifted, over fears for their personal safety. Several in the international business community said they would significantly modify their behavior while outside China to avoid attracting the ire of authorities in the country, where they need to do business.
The dramatic detention of a handful of foreigners in recent years has instilled a deep fear in some people, especially those with politically adjacent occupations. As President Xi breeds a culture of nationalism and forges increasingly hostile relations with Western governments, some fear that if a diplomatic spat between their government and Beijing occurred while they were in China they could become a target.
Many cited the detention of two Canadians in China in December 2018 as a turning point in their thinking. Michael Kovrig, an NGO worker and former diplomat, and Michael Spavor, who organized trips to North Korea, including for NBA player Dennis Rodman, were detained just after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver on charges filed in the United States. Their detentions have been characterized as a bargaining chip to help leverage Meng's release, an accusation Beijing denies.
The two Canadians detained in China: Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.
Last August, Chinese-Australian TV anchor Cheng Lei was also detained amid worsening ties between Beijing and Canberra. Cheng's detention was all the more surprising given she worked for the state media channel, CGTN.
All three are facing charges of spying.
Gordon Matthews, a professor of anthropology living in Hong Kong, says some of his colleagues at the Chinese University of Hong Kong who have devoted their lives to China are exploring pursuing new lines of academic inquiry to avoid visiting the mainland.
William Nee, an American who works for NGO China Human Rights Defenders, falls into the category of foreigners unwilling to travel to China, and says he knows many others, with "a lower risk profile" than the two detained Canadians, who have made the same judgment.
"It's not really a question only of, 'What are the things I have been doing that may have contributed to my getting detained?' It's also a question of, 'What is my nationality? What have the politicians from my country have been saying?'" says Nee.
"If they're willing to arbitrarily detain someone who was a very moderate, thoughtful academic, or a think tank type of person," he adds, "then it's difficult to see how anyone can feel safe."
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the "so-called increased risk in arbitrary detention of foreigners in China" was "completely inconsistent with the facts."
"China has always protected the safety and legitimate rights and interests of foreigners in China in accordance with the law," the ministry in a statement in response to CNN's inquiry. "On the Internet and social media, many foreigners share their experiences of working and living in China, saying that China is one of the safest countries they have ever lived in, and it is safe even when walking alone at night."
The statement added that, in fact, Meng Wanzhou's experience in Canada was a "typical case of arbitrary detention, and we hope she can return to China as soon as possible."
The level of risk
In June, a business advisory council to the US State Department issued a report titled "Hostage Diplomacy in China," seen by CNN, which cited the two Canadians' cases as a primary reason why firms should be more careful when sending employees to China.
Academics, former diplomats and think tanks across the world have similarly signed open letters expressing concern over what the two detentions mean for them. Last month, US President Joe Biden, commenting on the Canadians' case, told reporters: "Human beings are not bartering chips ... We're going to work together until we get their safe return."
Thomas Nunlist, a risk analyst at Hill & Associates, says he has seen an increase in demand from multinational companies seeking guidance on matters of detention risk mitigation, and response protocol, in China in recent years.
Nunlist says for the average business person, traveler or student the "risk of detention is low." However, he adds that a number of factors increase the risk of being detained in China, including holding dual citizenship, having a government background or being politically connected, or involvement in "sensitive activity."
Between 2009 and 2020, more than 50 cases involving foreigners detained in police custody or prevented from leaving China have appeared in media reports, according to Nunlist. Of those, 28 were involved in what his firm deemed to be "sensitive activity." "Some activities, such as involvement with North Korea or work in human rights advocacy, were clearly sensitive; others, such as conducting geological or historical research, were less obviously politically sensitive," he says.
Others cases included foreigners taking drugs in China, where dealing narcotics can still result in capital punishment, while a handful involved being approached and questioned. Three Canadians have been sentenced to death on narcotics charges since relations between Ottawa and Beijing soured, although China denies politics affect the sentences.
Exit bans
There is another form of detention in China that often doesn't involve a jail, or even committing a crime. It comes in the form of an exit ban -- legal under the Exit and Entry Administration Law adopted in 2012 for unsettled civil cases in China.
Sometimes security officials will visit people to inform them they are subject to exit bans; other times it is not evident until a person tries to leave the country. Usually, recipients can live in their own apartments and move around their community freely -- China itself becomes a giant prison they cannot leave.
In recent years, the bans have increasingly been used on foreigners -- including on US, Australian and Canadian citizens -- who face no charges in China. A number of ethnically Chinese US citizens, in particular, have been banned from leaving China, essentially kept as "hostages" to lure their Chinese relatives living abroad to return to the country to settle business and legal disputes.
"American citizens are too often being detained as de facto hostages in business disputes or to coerce family members to return to China," said James P. McGovern, a US Democratic congressman and chairman of the bipartisan Congressional-Executive Commission on China.
But they are not exclusively used on those of Chinese ethnicity.
www.cnn.com
The American professor, who for decades made multiple trips a year to China and was last there in 2018, hasn't focused his career on Tibet or Taiwan -- lightning-rod issues which attract Beijing's ire at lightning-quick speed -- but he has written about cultural diversity and student protests in mainland China, and appeared on panels with people he says the Communist Party is "clearly upset with."
Three years ago, that made the California-based academic wonder if his visa application to China might be rejected.
Today, it makes him consider whether crossing the border risks his indefinite arbitrary detention. The chance of that outcome, Wasserstrom says, might be "pretty minimal," but the consequences are so grave -- those detained can be locked up for years without contact with their families or a trial date -- he is not willing to gamble.
And he is not alone.
More than a dozen academics, NGO workers and media professionals CNN spoke to, who in pre-Covid times regularly traveled to China, said they were unwilling to do this once the pandemic restrictions lifted, over fears for their personal safety. Several in the international business community said they would significantly modify their behavior while outside China to avoid attracting the ire of authorities in the country, where they need to do business.
The dramatic detention of a handful of foreigners in recent years has instilled a deep fear in some people, especially those with politically adjacent occupations. As President Xi breeds a culture of nationalism and forges increasingly hostile relations with Western governments, some fear that if a diplomatic spat between their government and Beijing occurred while they were in China they could become a target.
Many cited the detention of two Canadians in China in December 2018 as a turning point in their thinking. Michael Kovrig, an NGO worker and former diplomat, and Michael Spavor, who organized trips to North Korea, including for NBA player Dennis Rodman, were detained just after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver on charges filed in the United States. Their detentions have been characterized as a bargaining chip to help leverage Meng's release, an accusation Beijing denies.
The two Canadians detained in China: Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.
Last August, Chinese-Australian TV anchor Cheng Lei was also detained amid worsening ties between Beijing and Canberra. Cheng's detention was all the more surprising given she worked for the state media channel, CGTN.
All three are facing charges of spying.
Gordon Matthews, a professor of anthropology living in Hong Kong, says some of his colleagues at the Chinese University of Hong Kong who have devoted their lives to China are exploring pursuing new lines of academic inquiry to avoid visiting the mainland.
William Nee, an American who works for NGO China Human Rights Defenders, falls into the category of foreigners unwilling to travel to China, and says he knows many others, with "a lower risk profile" than the two detained Canadians, who have made the same judgment.
"It's not really a question only of, 'What are the things I have been doing that may have contributed to my getting detained?' It's also a question of, 'What is my nationality? What have the politicians from my country have been saying?'" says Nee.
"If they're willing to arbitrarily detain someone who was a very moderate, thoughtful academic, or a think tank type of person," he adds, "then it's difficult to see how anyone can feel safe."
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the "so-called increased risk in arbitrary detention of foreigners in China" was "completely inconsistent with the facts."
"China has always protected the safety and legitimate rights and interests of foreigners in China in accordance with the law," the ministry in a statement in response to CNN's inquiry. "On the Internet and social media, many foreigners share their experiences of working and living in China, saying that China is one of the safest countries they have ever lived in, and it is safe even when walking alone at night."
The statement added that, in fact, Meng Wanzhou's experience in Canada was a "typical case of arbitrary detention, and we hope she can return to China as soon as possible."
The level of risk
In June, a business advisory council to the US State Department issued a report titled "Hostage Diplomacy in China," seen by CNN, which cited the two Canadians' cases as a primary reason why firms should be more careful when sending employees to China.
Academics, former diplomats and think tanks across the world have similarly signed open letters expressing concern over what the two detentions mean for them. Last month, US President Joe Biden, commenting on the Canadians' case, told reporters: "Human beings are not bartering chips ... We're going to work together until we get their safe return."
Thomas Nunlist, a risk analyst at Hill & Associates, says he has seen an increase in demand from multinational companies seeking guidance on matters of detention risk mitigation, and response protocol, in China in recent years.
Nunlist says for the average business person, traveler or student the "risk of detention is low." However, he adds that a number of factors increase the risk of being detained in China, including holding dual citizenship, having a government background or being politically connected, or involvement in "sensitive activity."
Between 2009 and 2020, more than 50 cases involving foreigners detained in police custody or prevented from leaving China have appeared in media reports, according to Nunlist. Of those, 28 were involved in what his firm deemed to be "sensitive activity." "Some activities, such as involvement with North Korea or work in human rights advocacy, were clearly sensitive; others, such as conducting geological or historical research, were less obviously politically sensitive," he says.
Others cases included foreigners taking drugs in China, where dealing narcotics can still result in capital punishment, while a handful involved being approached and questioned. Three Canadians have been sentenced to death on narcotics charges since relations between Ottawa and Beijing soured, although China denies politics affect the sentences.
Exit bans
There is another form of detention in China that often doesn't involve a jail, or even committing a crime. It comes in the form of an exit ban -- legal under the Exit and Entry Administration Law adopted in 2012 for unsettled civil cases in China.
Sometimes security officials will visit people to inform them they are subject to exit bans; other times it is not evident until a person tries to leave the country. Usually, recipients can live in their own apartments and move around their community freely -- China itself becomes a giant prison they cannot leave.
In recent years, the bans have increasingly been used on foreigners -- including on US, Australian and Canadian citizens -- who face no charges in China. A number of ethnically Chinese US citizens, in particular, have been banned from leaving China, essentially kept as "hostages" to lure their Chinese relatives living abroad to return to the country to settle business and legal disputes.
"American citizens are too often being detained as de facto hostages in business disputes or to coerce family members to return to China," said James P. McGovern, a US Democratic congressman and chairman of the bipartisan Congressional-Executive Commission on China.
But they are not exclusively used on those of Chinese ethnicity.
Westerners are increasingly scared of traveling to China as threat of detention rises | CNN
As President Xi breeds a culture of nationalism and forges increasingly hostile relations with Western governments, some fear that if a diplomatic spat between their government and Beijing occurred while they were in China they could become a target.
