1.The Burmese have been v smart in using it's strategic location and huge potential resources to woo all sides simultaneously. China, Russia, USA, Japan, Singapore, Israel, UK, India and Thailand have all been thoroughly exploited by the Burmese.
2. What is now becoming visible is India's efforts to ensnare BD and Burma into a deadly trap. India faces her top adversary to the west; her backside must be kept neutralized. In spite of multifarious boundary, insurgency and other issues, India has found it expedient to invest heavily in Burma. RAW and MI cooperate with Burma's MSS and exchange info. Burmese Buddhist extremism and India's Hindu extremism find a common danger in the growing Muslim power/population in this sub-region. India sells arms to Burma - some her own production and others imported. India trains the Burmese military and has advisers posted in that country.
3. Since 1947, India has been targeting BD which she sees as a fortress of emerging Muslim renaissance in the subcontinent. Initially IB and then RAW and now MI also, has successfully made deep penetrations into all sectors and segments of life in BD. Culture and media has been the major target appreciating Bengali's weakness for culture, language, music, literature, drama, etc.Back in 1948, Mahtabuddin, the publisher of The Daily Ittefaq was arrested for holding secret meetings with IHC officials for a possible merger with India. Today it is difficult to identify an individual in these sectors not under RAW's pay. Even BD's security services have been penetrated. And of course the political power in BD is wielded from Delhi through the obligated Shekh Family Inc, the children of those killed on 15 Aug 1975 and the remnants of Gen Uban's Mujib Bahini and JRB.
4. Watch carefully how BD's military is developing into a police force. Whereas five to seven Divs would be sufficient to discourage any India adventure, there are now eleven Divs - which obviously means sacrificing quality for quantity. MBT-2000 and JF-17 were selected by the military backed govt, but it is anathema to talk about these because of Pakistani inputs. Instead BD is moving towards Russian inventory in common with India's. I see a deep conspiracy in this - a conspiracy that will remind you of 1971.
5.India is slowly pushing BD into a limited conflict with Burma. On the political platform that will save SHW from contesting another election where she will loose because all the dirty tricks of RAW have been exposed in the past elections. But more crucially the war will throw BD deeper into India's poisonous embrace. Today BD is isolated and friendless except India's supposed "friendship". For spares of Russian eqpt there is no country that will help BD except India who will exact her pound of flesh.
6. Perhaps Pakistan's current policy of total withdrawal from BD, though diabolical, is correct. Once overrun we will fight a protracted and deadly war to last long. Like Rajput Gen Man Singh and Maratha raider Vaskar Pandit, India's aggression will find fierce opposition under every bush in BD. India will not have troops and resources enough to find comfort. The converse of Pakistan's doctrine of "Def of East Pakistan lies in the West" will emerge to be true.