Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Water may be cause of future wars
Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri has clarified that his earlier statement about water being a possible cause of war between states in South Asia was misunderstood; in fact, he had said that the possibility of war over waters was minimised by discussions under SAARC. He said the obligation of managing the melting glaciers and common sources of water has compelled Pakistan, India and other states of the region to cooperate.
While elsewhere in the world various states have had to contend with water disputes in the absence of water treaties among them, the Indo-Pak Waters Treaty has ensured that consultation and arbitration instead of war is the right way of dealing with the problem. That is why SAARC is positioned to actually extend the Indo-Pak model of water treaties among its member states. The SAARC summit in fact established that ââ¬Åthe situation was improving in this part of the worldââ¬Â and that ââ¬Åleaders of countries of the region have reached a consensus that no single country can overcome problems emanating from regional causesââ¬Â.
Pakistan and India are linked with each other through the many rivers that flow between them from mountains in the disputed valley of Kashmir. Likewise, Nepal and India are linked through a disputed storage of water system inside Nepal affected by the water policies of the lower riparian India. India controls 50 rivers flowing to Bangladesh and still has to reach some kind of agreement over them; and there are problems with the flows going to Bangladesh from Indiaââ¬â¢s Farraka Dam. Only cooperation inside SAARC can resolve these issues amicably.
All countries of the region, according to Mr Kasuri, are deficient in water resources and are faced with a bleak future unless they act as one region and manage the water-sheds of the region collectively. The glaciers on the northern mountains are melting fast and can have a decisive impact on the countries of the region while no one country can tackle the challenge single-handedly. He said: ââ¬ÅThere is no future for these countries without cooperationââ¬Â. Therefore the leaders of SAARC have agreed to face natural calamities like floods, earthquakes, famine, and locust attacks through collective efforts.
While the minister was upbeat, one can hardly imagine how these regional states will overcome their lack of imagination and start trusting each other for collective action.
The world faces a dark future as far as water is concerned. By 2025, more than two billion people are expected to live in countries that find it difficult or impossible to mobilise the water resources needed to meet the needs of agriculture, industry and households. That is one-third of the worldââ¬â¢s population.
In northern China, rivers now run dry in their lower reaches for much of the year. In parts of India, groundwater levels are falling so rapidly that 10 to 20 percent of agricultural production is under threat. From the Aral Sea in Central Asia to Lake Chad in sub-Saharan Africa, the lakes are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. The disputes erupting within countries are one consequence of increasing scarcity. But water is the ultimate ââ¬Åfugitive resourceââ¬Â. Forty percent of the worldââ¬â¢s population lives in territories that share water across international frontiers. That is natureââ¬â¢s interdependence. But are the states willing to be interdependent?
So far, no. The Tigris and Euphrates river systems figured prominently at the recently observed World Water Week. The two rivers dictate the ââ¬Åhydrological interdependenceââ¬Â that is actually absent. In Turkey, the two rivers are seen as an underexploited source of power and irrigation. But viewed from Syria and Iraq, the Turkish dams are a threat to their populations. Unfortunately, the three states look at any discussion over water as a zero-sum game. Every drop of water going to Turkish farmer appears as a loss to the Syrian farmer.
Unfortunately, big river diversions are planned in China and India without consulting the down-river states. Bangladesh has warned that any diversion of the Ganges to meet the needs of Indiaââ¬â¢s cities could undermine the livelihood of millions of vulnerable farmers in Bangladesh. If there is no war, there is starvation and death. If South Asia begins to die because of lack of cooperation, it will be a failure of SAARC simply because it is moving slower than the Himalayan glaciers are melting under climatic change. *
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\04\11\story_11-4-2007_pg3_1
Water may be cause of future wars
Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri has clarified that his earlier statement about water being a possible cause of war between states in South Asia was misunderstood; in fact, he had said that the possibility of war over waters was minimised by discussions under SAARC. He said the obligation of managing the melting glaciers and common sources of water has compelled Pakistan, India and other states of the region to cooperate.
While elsewhere in the world various states have had to contend with water disputes in the absence of water treaties among them, the Indo-Pak Waters Treaty has ensured that consultation and arbitration instead of war is the right way of dealing with the problem. That is why SAARC is positioned to actually extend the Indo-Pak model of water treaties among its member states. The SAARC summit in fact established that ââ¬Åthe situation was improving in this part of the worldââ¬Â and that ââ¬Åleaders of countries of the region have reached a consensus that no single country can overcome problems emanating from regional causesââ¬Â.
Pakistan and India are linked with each other through the many rivers that flow between them from mountains in the disputed valley of Kashmir. Likewise, Nepal and India are linked through a disputed storage of water system inside Nepal affected by the water policies of the lower riparian India. India controls 50 rivers flowing to Bangladesh and still has to reach some kind of agreement over them; and there are problems with the flows going to Bangladesh from Indiaââ¬â¢s Farraka Dam. Only cooperation inside SAARC can resolve these issues amicably.
All countries of the region, according to Mr Kasuri, are deficient in water resources and are faced with a bleak future unless they act as one region and manage the water-sheds of the region collectively. The glaciers on the northern mountains are melting fast and can have a decisive impact on the countries of the region while no one country can tackle the challenge single-handedly. He said: ââ¬ÅThere is no future for these countries without cooperationââ¬Â. Therefore the leaders of SAARC have agreed to face natural calamities like floods, earthquakes, famine, and locust attacks through collective efforts.
While the minister was upbeat, one can hardly imagine how these regional states will overcome their lack of imagination and start trusting each other for collective action.
The world faces a dark future as far as water is concerned. By 2025, more than two billion people are expected to live in countries that find it difficult or impossible to mobilise the water resources needed to meet the needs of agriculture, industry and households. That is one-third of the worldââ¬â¢s population.
In northern China, rivers now run dry in their lower reaches for much of the year. In parts of India, groundwater levels are falling so rapidly that 10 to 20 percent of agricultural production is under threat. From the Aral Sea in Central Asia to Lake Chad in sub-Saharan Africa, the lakes are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. The disputes erupting within countries are one consequence of increasing scarcity. But water is the ultimate ââ¬Åfugitive resourceââ¬Â. Forty percent of the worldââ¬â¢s population lives in territories that share water across international frontiers. That is natureââ¬â¢s interdependence. But are the states willing to be interdependent?
So far, no. The Tigris and Euphrates river systems figured prominently at the recently observed World Water Week. The two rivers dictate the ââ¬Åhydrological interdependenceââ¬Â that is actually absent. In Turkey, the two rivers are seen as an underexploited source of power and irrigation. But viewed from Syria and Iraq, the Turkish dams are a threat to their populations. Unfortunately, the three states look at any discussion over water as a zero-sum game. Every drop of water going to Turkish farmer appears as a loss to the Syrian farmer.
Unfortunately, big river diversions are planned in China and India without consulting the down-river states. Bangladesh has warned that any diversion of the Ganges to meet the needs of Indiaââ¬â¢s cities could undermine the livelihood of millions of vulnerable farmers in Bangladesh. If there is no war, there is starvation and death. If South Asia begins to die because of lack of cooperation, it will be a failure of SAARC simply because it is moving slower than the Himalayan glaciers are melting under climatic change. *
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\04\11\story_11-4-2007_pg3_1
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