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Watching Ukraine burn through ammo fighting Russia has the US Army rethinking how much it really needs for when war breaks out

The thing is, that did not explain the Russian losses.

If their goal is just to liberate Donbas like you claim, then number 1, they are still a bit before they can achieve that. and number 2. the way to achieve that is not proportional to the goal, the Russian lost 300,000 troop dead and wounded for a small scale operation like liberation of Donbas and instead of fighting a concentrated war, they fought a diverse war with a frontline more than 1200 km.

Ukraine is ruined, yes, but then it does not taken the fact that if this war stop tomorrow, and even if the frontline stay where it was, Ukraine still have control to the sea, and Ukraine still have control of 82--83% of their land, and Russia is left to deal with the aftermath by itself, while the sanction may not ever lifted until they give up Donbas, which mean whatever you are seeing in Russia now is going to be the Russia in the future.

Ukraine? Well, the west will rebuild them, and they still have control of most of their land, and only lost one port (that's Mariupol) and after the rebuilding, they will get back to at least 90% of what they used to be.

In a way, Russian had already lost, because if push comes to shove, Ukraine really do give up Donbas in bid of NATO membership, they are going to be accepted (there are no way NATO will let Ukraine go after transferring that many equipment only for them to go back to Russian camp or worse went to Chinese camp) What Russia is going to do when Ukraine being a part of NATO? And that's going to be the way, THE ONLY WAY, to solve this problem it just how long Ukraine realise this is the only way is the matter of question here.


I mean, as long as you happy, as they said, it does not have to be real, right? I mean, as they say, Ignorant is a bliss

The Russian aim was to liberate the Russian speaking east of Ukraine

It's was Ukrainian intransigence and western stupidity that led to the blood bath and expansion of the war

It was the eastern march of NATO towards Russian borders that caused the problem right from the beginning, otherwise negotiations were the way forward

Once the war started the Russians regardless of the costs could not lose, it became a matter of national honour for them and Putin

So 10,000 or 100,000 dead no longer matters

The Russians have diverted oil supplies south, they have made deals with states in their sphere of influence for supplies and support and China is sitting back watching everyone kick the shit out of each other


It's reaching the point where the meat grinder has taken TOO MUCH OUT OF THE UKRAINIANS, the scramble to enlist women soldiers, older soldiers and now requesting for anyone over 18 shows you the Ukrainians are beginning to scrape the bottom of the barrel
The front also is seeing the Ukrainians struggling to keep the Russians back


Ukraine actually has to have something to rebuild and it won't if the youth of Ukraine are pressganged into the conflict and sacrificed

Things are heading towards negotiations and the western allies are also beginning to speak up about the need to negotiate
 
I will say both wartime production and artillery shell back in WW1 is quite different than what we need to produce now.

Even the different between M795 and M107 are heaven and earth. And I am not talking CCF or Buzz round, just normal round.......

75mm and 155mm are used literally since WW1. And even steel alloys for the casing are the same.

The only difference is now we have more powerful explosives instead of Melinite
 
The Russian aim was to liberate the Russian speaking east of Ukraine

It's was Ukrainian intransigence and western stupidity that led to the blood bath and expansion of the war

It was the eastern march of NATO towards Russian borders that caused the problem right from the beginning, otherwise negotiations were the way forward

Once the war started the Russians regardless of the costs could not lose, it became a matter of national honour for them and Putin

So 10,000 or 100,000 dead no longer matters

The Russians have diverted oil supplies south, they have made deals with states in their sphere of influence for supplies and support and China is sitting back watching everyone kick the shit out of each other


It's reaching the point where the meat grinder has taken TOO MUCH OUT OF THE UKRAINIANS, the scramble to enlist women soldiers, older soldiers and now requesting for anyone over 18 shows you the Ukrainians are beginning to scrape the bottom of the barrel
The front also is seeing the Ukrainians struggling to keep the Russians back


Ukraine actually has to have something to rebuild and it won't if the youth of Ukraine are pressganged into the conflict and sacrificed

Things are heading towards negotiations and the western allies are also beginning to speak up about the need to negotiate
First of all, if Russia really do just aim at liberating Russian speaking Ukraine sector, they will not attack thru North into Kyia, thru South into Kherson. It's no longer a feign when you actually jump off and attack and lose people over it, that become an advance, not a Feign. Let's just get that bit clears, it's not the west prompting the Russian to attack on 3 front, they stack up against 3 front and they attack all in 1 go, which they should not have been because it diverted their force.

Second you cannot win a war just because you need to win for whatever reason, be it national pride or religion. You win a war because you achieve objective on the ground, that's the only way you can win, and at this point, Russia achieved nothing and hundred of thousand of soldier being killed and wounded. It mean nothing, and the Ukrainian aren't going anywhere, because that's their land, where are they supposed to go?

And when the war keep going on, there are going to be pressure on the Russian part because you can only cover your death at a rate, when people not coming home and you can't oppress it anymore, that lead to protest, and that lead to why Russia left Afghanistan with nothing. And each day is going to be more expensive for Russia, because you need new people, new resource to keep the momentum going, and even if you transition into defensive posture, you are still looking at several asymmetrical factors, as well as organised attack, and that is not going to be "nothing just sit there" type

I mean right now as we speed Russia already asked North Korea and Iran for Drone and shell, do you think Iran or North Korea have Russian level of production capacity? If they did, they wouldn't be buying from Russia from the beginning, the issue here, is Russia have to depleted their own production before they turn to someone, which mean if they cannot sustain themselves, there are no way Iran and NK can sustain this war by themselves in a medium to long run.

And I don't know what you mean by
if the youth of Ukraine are pressganged into the conflic

This war cost hundred of thousand Russian and Ukrainian life, not millions, maybe in 10 years if this war still keep going at this rate, we can talk about million of Ukrainian youth killed in combat, not this rate, yes Ukraine is smaller than Russia, they still do have 45 million population.......

And finally, what there are talk about? Any ceasefire now without a long term security bid is going to be rejected by Ukraine, because that is giving the Russian time to do round 2. Again, any talks has to be a balance of Ukrainian security and Russian need, and both side did not done enough damage yet to have the other side to rescind their term in talks, which mean no talk. And no, the west is not pressuring Ukraine to talk either, that's completely up to Ukraine.

75mm and 155mm are used literally since WW1. And even steel alloys for the casing are the same.

The only difference is now we have more powerful explosives instead of Melinite
Well, the casing is different, the det charge is different, the fragmentation projectile is different, and the material is different.

In the old days, all you need is a dude to hammer those charge into a casing, it does not even need to be right nor align, now, if you do this, it's going to crack the casing, if not even the projectile and it will explode on your *** when it hitting the breech of a gun.

I don't know about Russia, but making a 155 shell now is very different than making a 155 shell in 1970, let alone 1911. And again, I am not even talking about Smart round, CCF or Buzz or Basebleed.......
 
I will say both wartime production and artillery shell back in WW1 is quite different than what we need to produce now.

Even the different between M795 and M107 are heaven and earth. And I am not talking CCF or Buzz round, just normal round.......
Arms output also has a lot to do with administrative capacity, political will, localization rate, raw materials.... not entirely determined by the complexity of weapons

The simplest example is the R-4360, its complexity and internal components even surpass many types of jet engines today, but the United States can still produce more than 18,000 units.
 

Western ammo stocks at ‘bottom of the barrel’ as Ukraine war drags on, NATO official warns


By Brad Lendon, Radina Gigova, Fred Pleitgen and Kostyantin Gak, CNN

Updated 8:57 AM EDT, Wed October 4, 2023

Western militaries are running out of ammunition to give to Ukraine, NATO and British officials warned Tuesday, as they urged the bloc’s nations to ramp up production to “keep Ukraine in the fight against Russian invaders.”

The news of possible ammunition shortfalls comes after money to buy weapons for Ukraine was not included in a stopgap spending bill the US Congress passed at the weekend to avoid a federal government shutdown.

Fresh uncertainty over the future of US aid arose Tuesday when US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who advocated for support of Ukraine, was ousted from his leadership position by Republican colleagues.

The developments are troubling news for Ukraine as the war with neighboring Russia is in its 20th month and raises questions over whether Moscow may feel able to outlast western commitment promises.

“The bottom of the barrel is now visible,” Adm. Rob Bauer of the Netherlands, the chair of the NATO Military Committee and NATO’s most senior military official, said of the West’s ammunition stockpile Tuesday during a discussion at the Warsaw Security Forum.

“We give away weapons systems to Ukraine, which is great, and ammunition, but not from full warehouses. We started to give away from half-full or lower warehouses in Europe” and those stores are now running low, Bauer said.

James Heappey, minister of state for the armed forces of the United Kingdom, speaking at the same panel as Bauer, said even though stockpiles may be thin, aid for Kyiv must continue and Western countries need to increase their capacity to make more ammo.

“We have to keep Ukraine in the fight tonight and tomorrow and the day after and the day after,” Heappey said. That means, “continuing to give, day in day out, and rebuilding our own stockpiles,” he added.

Meanwhile, analysts are warning that the US “arsenal of democracy” needs to start working overtime or Ukraine’s war effort may be in trouble.

“The United States and its allies are sending to Ukraine a wide range of munitions, but they are not being produced or delivered as quickly as needed,” Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow Thomas Warrick wrote last week.

Warrick wrote that as Ukraine delayed the start of summer offensive to get more ammo and equipment to the front lines, Russia was able to build up defenses that have significantly blunted Ukrainian advances.

“Ukraine’s forces have proven themselves flexible and adaptive, but they need to have sufficient ammunition and weapons,” he wrote.

But events in Washington are placing supplies – and Ukraine’s standing on the battlefield – in doubt.

“An inability to ensure timely procurement and deliveries could undermine essential Ukrainian operations to retake additional territory or defend against potential future Russian offensives,” US Undersecretary of Defense Michael McCord wrote in a letter to congressional leadership on Friday as the spending bill that ultimately eliminated aid for Ukraine was being negotiated.

“Without additional funding now, we would have to delay or curtail assistance to meet Ukraine’s urgent requirements, including for air defense and ammunition that are critical and urgent now as Russia prepares to conduct a winter offensive and continues its bombardment of Ukrainian cities,” McCord wrote.

On the battlefield, there were signs of shortages and a desire for more modern weapons.

“We are very low on ammo,” Myron, of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade, told CNN Wednesday. “Every time we fire a round we have to take a decision, is it expedient. We count every round.”

Alex, from the same brigade, was operating a Soviet-made rocket launcher. “It’s not very precise,” he said. “It also depends on the weather, range. It would be good to have more precise rockets or guided ones.”

“It’s not very precise. It also depends on the weather, range. It would be good to have more precise rockets or guided ones.”

US military aid to Ukraine has amounted to a staggering $46.6 billion from the war’s start through July 31, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. NATO allies have contributed billions more.

But military leaders acknowledge ammo especially is being used at a staggering rate on the Ukraine battlefields.

Ukrainian troops typically fire between 2,000 and 3,000 artillery shells per day at Russian forces, a US defense official told CNN in July.

The Pentagon said in July it had provided Ukraine with more than 2 million artillery rounds to date.

“This is an artillery intensive fight,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at the time. “You know, we’ve seen large amounts of artillery be employed on both sides of the fence. And so that puts a strain on the international supply of munitions, artillery munitions.”

At the time, Washington’s supplies of NATO standard 155mm artillery rounds were so low that it was decided to supply Ukraine with controversial cluster munitions.

 
Arms output also has a lot to do with administrative capacity, political will, localization rate, raw materials.... not everything in its complexity.

The simplest example is the R-4360, its complexity and internal components even surpass many types of jet engines today, but the United States can still produce more than 18,000 units.
Well, it really depends, building shell is not as complicated as it was, however, would it worth to ramp up the production is another issue.

Say for example. For Ukraine, should the US increase M795 production from roughly 10,000 a month to 40,000 a month and gave the extra 30000 a month to Ukraine, the issue here is not whether or not US can make those 30,000 a month extra, or whether or not the US can afford it, but rather why not just send them 30,000 CBU round or M107 round before we try to dip into the production surge? I mean, increasing incrementally is different than surge, it get a lot easier to go from 10,000 to 20,000 and send the other 20,000 CBU round to Ukraine and then phase out the CBU round while increasing the M795 production incrementally from 10000-20000 then to 30000 then to 40000
 
Nato is so determined to bleed Ukraine the last drop of blood.
Suposedly its about trying to bleed the russians,but if the ukis wind up getting literally bled white in the process...,well thats just too bad.
I`m reminded of the old zionist concept of the "useful idiots",altho at this point I`m not actually sure whos the bigger idiot,nato or the ukis. 🤔
 
Delisional takes, by western nafo bots, russian economy grows and their military industrial complex is heating outpacing by far what nafo can supply to ukraina, they lost strategically.
In process west lost so called global south to china and russia and factually isolated them self but yet that information has to come to their thick buble heads.
 
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Not only operationally, but also strategically, Ukraine/NATO have lost. Russia took a beating but it has won. Negotiations will happen on Russia's terms now. But the real spoils go to China who won without doing anything so that's a double L for the West.

Anyone who thinks otherwise is a delusional moron.
 

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