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I will try to calculate the damage that will be done to US economy in the event of war with Iran
Right now oil price is 60$ per barrel. What will be the oil price in the event of war? Some say-150$ per barrel, but this doesn't make sense, because 150$ per barrel was the price of oil in 2007 --even without war.
In 2011 Stratfor estimated that oil price will climb to 500$ per barrel if Iran closes the Straight of Hormuz------but I will take an estimate that price will be 350$ per barrel in the event of closure of the Straight of Hormuz
First, US consumes 7,3 bln barrels of oil per year, while produce 4,3bln barrels of oil----Deficit: 3bln barrels of oil that needs to be imported.
With oil price being 60$ per barrel, US spent (7,3bln barrels*60$=) 440bln$ per year on oil (if oil price is 60$ per barrel)
Lets assume the war starts, Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz and oil price climbs to 350$ per barrel.
In order to protect US economy from oil shock, Congress will pass a law banning US oil exports and establishing a fixed price of domestically produced oil at 60$ per barrel (it will be forbidden by law for domestic oil producers to sell oil at a price higher than 60$ per barrel )----so 4,3 bln barrels of domestic oil will be sold at a fixed price of 60$ per barrel......But import oil---3bln barrels----will be bought at a market price of 350$ per barrel
So US spending on oil will be (4,3bln barrels*60$ + 3bln barrels*350$)= 1308 bln$ per year
So in peace time US spends 440bln$ per year on oil,---- during the war it will have to spend 1,3trln$ per year on oil--------this is three times more----meaning gasoline price will rise by a factor of 3----from 2,9$ per gallon---to 8,7$ per gallon
1308bln$ spending on oil at war time----minus ----440bln$ spending at peace time =difference of 870bln$
Now, if US household spend larger portion of their net income on gasoline---they spend less on other things like groceries or entertainment etc------If US household spend 870bln$ more on gasoline --they spend on other things 870bln$ less----MEANING OTHER SECTORS WILL EXPERIENCE FALL IN DEMAND WORTH 870BLN$
If demand on groceries, entertainment etc... falls by 870bln$---GDP will decrease by 870*1,5= 1300bln$ (1,5 is multiplier effect coefficient. Spending multiplier is---for example when you increase spending by 1 dollar, GDP usually growth by 1,5 dollars and vice versa)---1300bln$ recession--- is US GDP declining by 6,5%
Now the second issue is US exports----US exports is 1,6trln$-----70% of exports go to Asia and Europe and those regions will experience huge recession so US exports will fall ...let say...by 10%-----Meaning 160bln$........Exports decline by 160bln means GDP will decline by 240bln$ or 1,2% if we take multiplier effect into account (with coefficient 1,5)
Now, if GDP declines by 6,5% due to oil price increase and 1,2% due to decline in exports = 7,7% GDP decline----this means US budget revenues will fall by 7,7% as well.
Since US budget revenues are 3,65trln$---this means revenues will fall by 280bln$ and this amount will have to be borrowed by issuing new bonds and paying interest on them.
Then we have direct costs of war....In Desert Storm US deployed 500.000 troops. In 2003 invasion US deployed 280.000 troops......Lets assume that for the purpose of defense of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia US will deploy 350.000 troops......Deploying 1 fully equipped soldier in the war zone costs 1mln$ per year, meaning deploying 350.000 will cost 350bln$ per year.
In Desert Storm Coalition flew 98.000 sorties against Iraq which had a population of 18mln people back then. Iran has a population of 83mln people---4,6 times larger----so at least 450.000 sorties will be needed at the event of war with Iran.....One sortie costs 100k$ on average so 450.000 sorties will cost 45bln$
So direct costs of war ---350bln$ for deployment +45bln$ for air campaign = 395bln$ in first year of war.---this amount must be borrowed by issuing new treasures.
Final costs of war with Iran:
1) 870bln$ per year---US households overpaying for gasoline
2) GDP decline by 1,3trln$ or 6,5% + GDP decline due to exports declining by 240bln$ or 1,2%--------total GDP decline ---7,7%
3) Direct costs of war------395bln$ in first year of war.
4) US federal debt rising by additional (395bln$ + 280bln$) = 675bln$ ----just because of war
5) damage due to Stock market decline-----hundreds of billions
6) additional indirect costs like pensions for veterans of Iran war, interests on debt etc...----unknown
Total damage: 870bln$+1,54trln$+ 675bln$=3085bln$ +hundreds of billions due to Stock market decline
And all this is for USA-----countries in Asia and Europe will experience even more severe recession
The only winner will be Russia----price of oil will increase so will Russian budget revenues +US will be distracted in a new quagmire, thus giving Russia time to rise in Europe
So Dotard will think twice before attacking Iran even if Iran crosses the red line
You forgot the biggest equation. How much money lives and years have US spent on their bases in ME? In the event of full scale war. Iran will have no other option but to destroy every single American base in ME. US will have to spend even more rebuilding. That is if they manage to do it. Before Russia and China does
