War game argues that USAF fleet could be outmatched by Chinese

[batmannow]

DATE:29/09/08
SOURCE:Flight International
War game argues that USAF fleet could be outmatched by Chinese
By Stephen Trimble

Rand's 90-slide briefing presented in August argues that the US Air Force's fifth-generation fighter fleet could be outmatched by hordes of lesser-skilled Chinese Sukhoi Su-27 pilots in a 2020 battle over the Taiwan Straits. In the Rand war game, China launches an air attack on skies above Taiwan. Using advantages of proximity and sheer numbers, the assault force consists of 72 Su-27 Flankers, 24 in each of three regiments. Operating from Andersen AFB, Guam, the USAF can muster only six Lockheed F-22s in the Taiwan Straits at any time.

As the engagement starts, Chinese Flankers outnumber F-22s by 72 to six. The F-22s are also heavily outgunned in the battle. Three Su-27 regiments carry a total of 912 air-to-air missiles, compared with 48 by six F-22s.

In the end, the simulation optimistically assumes no F-22s are shot down in dogfights, but enough Su-27s break through to wipe out the USAF's tankers. Since the F-22s lack the range to return to a friendly base, they are lost any way.

 

[IceCold]

DATE:29/09/08
SOURCE:Flight International
War game argues that USAF fleet could be outmatched by Chinese
By Stephen Trimble

Rand's 90-slide briefing presented in August argues that the US Air Force's fifth-generation fighter fleet could be outmatched by hordes of lesser-skilled Chinese Sukhoi Su-27 pilots in a 2020 battle over the Taiwan Straits. In the Rand war game, China launches an air attack on skies above Taiwan. Using advantages of proximity and sheer numbers, the assault force consists of 72 Su-27 Flankers, 24 in each of three regiments. Operating from Andersen AFB, Guam, the USAF can muster only six Lockheed F-22s in the Taiwan Straits at any time.

As the engagement starts, Chinese Flankers outnumber F-22s by 72 to six. The F-22s are also heavily outgunned in the battle. Three Su-27 regiments carry a total of 912 air-to-air missiles, compared with 48 by six F-22s.

In the end, the simulation optimistically assumes no F-22s are shot down in dogfights, but enough Su-27s break through to wipe out the USAF's tankers. Since the F-22s lack the range to return to a friendly base, they are lost any way.

First of all there will not be just six F-22 to take the chinese on, obviously once the tensions heat up, US will send reinforcement. Also dont forget that to back the F-22 US will also have JSF. And together they can pretty much take out the whole of what the chinese have to offer unless ofcourse Chinese increase the quality of their products.
This article is just another try from the americans to justify to their ignorant american people that US is justified in spending such a huge amount of an platform such as the F-22 when a more cheaper version F-35 is available to them.

 

[Contrarian]

2 CSG's is all it takes to stop Chinese intentions dead in their tracks.

 

[maqsad]

Well when you think about it, in air to air combat all it really comes down to is missile vs. missile and missile vs. evasion. No matter how many hundreds of millions of dollars an F-22 costs, once it can be painted on a radar then the technological edge is reduced to almost nothing.

As far as maneuverability is concerned perhaps the F-22 is the only aircraft that can breakdance at 10,000 feet but can it outmaneuver a cheap A2A missile which has a lock on it, flies faster(for 90 seconds) turns faster and is a hell of a lot harder to target than a jet?

No doubt the F-22 is the most advanced jet in existence, perhaps even for decades but missile technology matters so much that the odds are evened when you multiply the cheapies.

 

[Contrarian]

And the current point is that F-22 cannot be locked on. If maybe in a decades time, radar tech of the rest of the world is able to match up and is able to lock on, what makes you think US would not have made changes to the F-22?

Do you know whether the F-22 might be able to jam the incomming missiles? What makes you think that the Chinese planes comming in from the mainland would not already be painted by the radar of the F-22 and fired on long before they reach their own firing range.

F-22 is not just stealth. Its look first and shoot first as well.

 

[maqsad]

It's impossible to say if current radar tech can paint an F-22 because all the details are classified so we have to take the word of the defence contractors paid hundreds of billions to develop, manufacture and support the craft. Yahhhh righttt. The Romulan cloaking device that the F-22 supposedly uses cannot bend light, sound, IR, EMF and other passive and active sensing mechanisms to absolute perfection. If it's not perfect then it can be detected. Also, if anyone can already detect it then they would not advertise that fact either so as to give everyone flying the F-22 a false sense of security--what would be the point to put your cards on the table?

 

[Contrarian]

The point is not that it can be detected, the point is that it cannot be detected at sufficient ranges to stop it from performing its action. That is stealth.

If your radar detects the plane at say 20 miles, what good is that if you already have a BVRAAM comming at you from the F-22 launched from 60 miles away? Or say if the IRST's detect it at say 15-25 miles? Same results.

Again, the result is same from a SEAD/DEAD POV. You cant detect the plane at long enough ranges to prevent it from delivering the payload.

 

[Awesome]

Why would the Chinese be just flying Su-27s in 2020?

 

[Contrarian]

Nope, their primary aircraft will be- Su-30(ala J-11B), Su-30MKK and J-10.

 

[Jliu]

And before anyone here starts sprouting off about the fictional J-XX let me assure you that it doesn't exist.

Although that does not include preliminary design work on composites and RCS reduction applique the PLAAF & co. are decades away from anything approaching an F-22A.

 

[IceCold]

SO Is it possible for an advance jet such as the F-22 to actually lock on to an incoming A2A missile and shoot it down before it actually reaches anywhere closer to the F-22 itself?
The question may sound funny but pardon my ignorance on the related issue.

 

[batmannow]

SO Is it possible for an advance jet such as the F-22 to actually lock on to an incoming A2A missile and shoot it down before it actually reaches anywhere closer to the F-22 itself?
The question may sound funny but pardon my ignorance on the related issue.

Dear IceCold;sir,
your question , isnt funny at all.
but the problum is that our dear commrads dont like to hear anything, which doesnt go in favour of USAF. by the way, similar kind of gosip was poped up at the time of hongkong, was about to come under chinese control.
TAIWAN is the next, any way!
if the F-22 is so, untouchable then it can be said, that once included in USAF , it will virtulay , make the skies around the world in to direct US control?

so, then everything would be over?
i guss, including china, russia and their joint tech , will bring something cool..for the F-22, very soon.

by the way, what if f-22 fired upon with 6 a2a missile's at same time?

 

[su-47]

Well when you think about it, in air to air combat all it really comes down to is missile vs. missile and missile vs. evasion. No matter how many hundreds of millions of dollars an F-22 costs, once it can be painted on a radar then the technological edge is reduced to almost nothing.

As far as maneuverability is concerned perhaps the F-22 is the only aircraft that can breakdance at 10,000 feet but can it outmaneuver a cheap A2A missile which has a lock on it, flies faster(for 90 seconds) turns faster and is a hell of a lot harder to target than a jet?

No doubt the F-22 is the most advanced jet in existence, perhaps even for decades but missile technology matters so much that the odds are evened when you multiply the cheapies.

to launch a missile at an F-22, you have to locate it. missiles need something to lock onto. F-22s are designed to shoot down anything before they can lock to the F-22

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

It is agreed that the F 22 needs to be locked onto---the F 22 can lock onto target before anyone else can see it---but if the the numbers are 6 to 72, the raptor does not stand a chance---while it has launched it missiles at a disctance---the air gap between the two planes is closing fast----the raptor can only fly so far and it needs to be gas'd up---after launching its missiles, the raptor turns away---but the remaining su 27 - 30's will have a speed advantage over it to narrow the gap. The raptor can only fly back so far---.

Name me one pilot who would not want to go on a one way chase just to down the raptor----the raptor will be bingo fuel and weapons---if 46 of the missiles were a hit---which is numerically impossible, there would still be 26 enemy fighters in the chase---so RAND is right in its conclusion---one way or the other, the raptors will be lost.

U S air force is not in the habit of sending out massive number of interceptor aircraft to forestall the incoming enemy.

The enemy never sends out 72 planes to look like 72 birds flying out. The enemy aircraft will be flying in tight two planes or four plane formations each to look like one aircraft on enemies radar---by 2020 would the USAF have the ability to distinguish how many aircraft are in a very tightly flying formation---is there a technology available that could decipher that today!!!

 

[Jliu]

SO Is it possible for an advance jet such as the F-22 to actually lock on to an incoming A2A missile and shoot it down before it actually reaches anywhere closer to the F-22 itself?
The question may sound funny but pardon my ignorance on the related issue.

In theory yes. A Kh-55 (Ukrainian variant exported to PRC) has a known RCS value of ~1.102 and since a APG-63v2 has no trouble tracking at cruising altitude so I don't see why not with the Raptor's APG-77 especially if you look at (understated) publicly available stats. But I would be hesitant to affirm as no such test has taken place.