VN - Party leader arrives in Beijing for China visit

[Lux de Veritas]

wrong. since the oil rig incident, the pro-china faction is weakened. vietnam is at the crossroad, should the party chief return home with empty hands, the consequences will be dramatic, not only for vietnam, but laos and cambodia. after the china trip, he will head to america.

Aligning with one country doesn't mean that you can not do business with another country.

JP and SK are much bigger trade partners with China than VN is. Yet JP and SK are US allies, not VN.

If USA is not able to be the significant trading partner with her allies, I doubt how long will this alliance last.

And given USA continues to go broke, she is going to lost ally.

 

[William Hung]

wrong. since the oil rig incident, the pro-china faction is weakened. vietnam is at the crossroad, should the party chief return home with empty hands, the consequences will be dramatic, not only for vietnam, but laos and cambodia. after the china trip, he will head to america.

More than that, during the oil rig the CCP did something else that crossed the line and altered the policy of the VCP completely. I made a thread on this and the mod locked it.

 

[Viet]

Let's not go offtopic about the past. Let's talk about the present and future.

from the news, xi jingping offers nothing, except warm but empty words. I think the talk is waste of time and money.

 

[William Hung]

If USA is not able to be the significant trading partner with her allies, I doubt how long will this alliance last.

And given USA continues to go broke, she is going to lost ally.

Japan has been a US ally for a long time now and Japan has been, and still is, a big trading partner of China. You can be an ally with someone else and still be a trading partner with another. That was my point.

And dare I say, Japan is even more anti-China than VietNam.

 

[Viet]

Let me remind u here, it's just 1st time ! More is ur P.M, not VCP leader.

Another question i wanna ask a Vietnamese ... as u think, which side right now take most power of Vietnam military force, VCP chairman or P.M ? Who can easily get support from the Army?

formally the defence minister and General Thanh. he heads and commands the army. he is said to be loyal whoever controls and heads the country. that reflects the tradition of the vietnamese army since ancient times.

 

[Lux de Veritas]

Japan has been a US ally for a long time now and Japan has been, and still is, a big trading partner of China. You can be an ally with someone else and still be a trading partner with another. That was my point.

And dare I say, Japan is even more anti-China than VietNam.

It will take awhile before for the East Asian state to realign. Soon China will be bigger GDP than USA, next militarily stronger.

While USA is better off per capita basis, it is the aggregate GDP that counts on benchmarking the power of nation.

When USA become half time or even a quarter the power of China, who knows what will happen.

Now is just the start.

 

[William Hung]

You are right. This GS guy is not so simple.

Exactly, and he is not so "pro-China" like some Chinese members here mistakenly think.

from the news, xi jingping offers nothing, except warm but empty words. I think the talk is waste of time and money.

Yes, the fact that Viet Nam's request to stop the spratly land reclamation will inevitably be ignored by the CCP will make Xi's reconciliatory promise extremely meaningless.

But the meeting is not really a waste of time. It tells the US that the VCP still has a relationship with the CCP and if the US negotiate with the VCP unfairly, the VCP can still become pro-CCP again.

This meeting is just some preparation work before the GS go to the US for some real negotiations.

 

[Viet]

More than that, during the oil rig the CCP did something else that crossed the line and altered the policy of the VCP completely. I made a thread on this and the mod locked it.

the deployment of the oil rig is one of the most blunders ever. the chinese thought they could impose their will on vietnam and vietnam would back down due to imbalance of power and dependency on china. it is a sort of blackmail.

 

[William Hung]

It will take awhile before for the East Asian state to realign. Soon China will be bigger GDP than USA, next militarily stronger.

While USA is better off per capita basis, it is the aggregate GDP that counts on benchmarking the power of nation.

When USA become half time or even a quarter the power of China, who knows what will happen.

Now is just the start.

It will take more than a strong GDP+military for China to realign Asia.

I once told this to another Chinese member: in the current unipolar world where the US is the sole superpower, there are still plenty of countries, including the ones in its backyard, who refuse to align with the US. So what makes you think that all the Asian countries will realign with China once she becomes strong enough to create a multipolar world?

I share your sentiments that Asia should realign and unite, but at the rate and direction of how things are going, I can't see how that is possible for the foreseeable future. And no, I'm not convinced the AIIB, silk road, etc can change that.

the deployment of the oil rig is one of the most blunders ever. the chinese thought they could impose their will on vietnam and vietnam would back down due to imbalance of power and dependency on china. it is a sort of blackmail.

The CCP got baited into playing the American's chess game and made the wrong move. I've always made this claim from the beginning. PRC members here still insist that China is winning this chess game and the US is losing.

But just compare the SCS situation now with what it was before 2009 (when the US first made its chess move) and you can see who is winning and who is losing.

 

[Lux de Veritas]

It will take more than a strong GDP+military for China to realign Asia.

I once told this to another Chinese member: in the current unipolar world where the US is the sole superpower, there are still plenty of countries, including the ones in its backyard, who refuse to align with the US. So what makes you think that all the Asian countries will realign with China once she becomes strong enough to create a multipolar world?

I share your sentiments that Asia should realign and unite, but at the rate and direction of how things are going, I can't see how that is possible for the foreseeable future. And no, I'm not convinced the AIIB, silk road, etc can change that.



The CCP got baited into playing the American's chess game and made the wrong move. I've always made this claim from the beginning. PRC members here still insist that China is winning the chess game and the US is losing.

But just compare the SCS situation now with what it was before 2009 (when the US first made its chess move) and you can see who is winning and who is losing.

In 1937, people think China is going to be conquered by Japan. It is a big joke to think china GDP surpassing USA then.

In 1951, China beaten USA in Korean War. In 1963, China got her nuke.

While there are plenty of countries refusing to aligning with USA especially Islamic one, the western europe are more or less USA ally.

I see East Asia China ally.

Now China GDP starting taking over USA. Wait for the surprise.

 

[Viva_Viet]

In 1937, people think China is going to be conquered by Japan. It is a big joke to think china GDP surpassing USA then.

In 1951, China beaten USA in Korean War. In 1963, China got her nuke.

While there are plenty of countries refusing to aligning with USA especially Islamic one, the western europe are more or less USA ally.

I see East Asia China ally.

Now China GDP starting taking over USA. Wait for the surprise.

We only surprise when CN can take back Taiwan within 20 years

 

[William Hung]

In 1937, people think China is going to be conquered by Japan. It is a big joke to think china GDP surpassing USA then.

In 1951, China beaten USA in Korean War. In 1963, China got her nuke.

While there are plenty of countries refusing to aligning with USA especially Islamic one, the western europe are more or less USA ally.

I see East Asia China ally.

Now China GDP starting taking over USA. Wait for the surprise.

I'm not saying that China's GDP can't surpass that of the US. I was saying that even if China becomes much stronger economically and militarily, can she realign Asia to create a new regional order? somehow I doubt this.

First of all, I think China needs to present a worldview that every other Asian countries would want to join and to strife for together with China. And this worldview would need to override any differences and frictions that currently exist between most Asian countries. Right now, I don't see China presenting any such worldview, other than the "let's get rich together" worldview which is pretty generic and trivial. On the contrary, China was previously pushing hard for an exclusive sino worldview (ie. The Chinese Dream) that are still embedded in people's memory.

I think the US had an advantage in that they've already created their current alliances and world order during the Cold War where there was an "imminent threat" from the "evil Reds" and their uniting worldview was "to build and protect our free and capitalist world." This worldview was inclusive and the need to fight against the evil Reds overrided any small frictions and differences the US Alliance members had with each other.

Now here is one reason why I think China is not succeeding in creating a new Asian regional order: The US is currently winning in presenting China as that "imminent threat" where countries like VN, PH, JP, etc, needs to unite with the US to protect themselves. In other words, the PRC is presented as the new evil Reds.

P. S. and this is why I said China was losing the chess game against the US in the SCS dispute. The CCP did a good job at presenting themselves as a threatening and coercive bully in the eyes of the Philippines, VietNam, Japan, etc. I'm not arguing who was right and who was wrong. I'm saying what @Viet said earlier. The oil rig (and the other SCS/ECS incidents before that) was a big blunder for the CCP.

 

[Viet]

The CCP got baited into playing the American's chess game and made the wrong move. I've always made this claim from the beginning. PRC members here still insist that China is winning this chess game and the US is losing.

But just compare the SCS situation now with what it was before 2009 (when the US first made its chess move) and you can see who is winning and who is losing.

chinese suffer delusion because they assume the vietnamese are as stupid and dumb as other people in southeast asia and elsewhere.

look, I read from the news they claim vietnam will benefit from silkroad projects. but how can we benefit if they build roads and sea ports elsewhere in thailand or singapore? all of traffic will bypass vietnam.

other propaganda is aiib. they sell it to vietnam as a big bang. but seriously, as this is a chineese controlled bank, I expect they will never give us a penny. they never do in the past, why should they change their mind now?

 

[Lux de Veritas]

I'm not saying that China's GDP can't surpass that of the US. I was saying that even if China becomes much stronger economically and military, can she realign Asia to create a new regional order? somehow I doubt this.

First of all, I think China needs to present a worldview that every other Asian countries would want to join and to strife for together with China. And this worldview would need to override any differences and frictions that currently exist between most Asian countries. Right now, I don't see China presenting any such worldview, other than the "let's get rich together" worldview which is pretty generic and trivial. On the contrary, China was previously pushing hard for an exclusive sino worldview (ie. The Chinese Dream) that are still embedded in people's memory.

I think the US had an advantage in that they've already created their current alliances and world order during the Cold War where there was an "imminent threat" from the evil Reds and their uniting worldview was "to build and protect our free and capitalist world." This worldview was inclusive and the need to fight against the evil Reds overrided any small frictions and differences the US Alliance members had with each other.

Now here is one reason why I think China is not succeeding in creating a new Asian regional order: The US is currently winning in presenting China as that "imminent threat" where countries like VN, PH, JP, etc, needs to unite with the US to protect themselves. In other words, the PRC is presented as the new evil Reds.

I saw one thing China could ace against USA. USA now is absorbed in ruinous financial capitalism, leaving her old, weak and poor to die and infrastructure to rot. I doubt USA will stay together as one piece in the next 100 years.

Chinese culture on the other hand is socialist inherently, and right now she is trying hard to build a universal healthcare system. She has been a unitary state for more than 2000 years.

I would say now USA still have the upper hand. Who knows what happen in 2050?

 

[Viet]

If USA is not able to be the significant trading partner with her allies, I doubt how long will this alliance last.

And given USA continues to go broke, she is going to lost ally.

are you sure? wake up, the US has become our biggest export market.
in case you missed the news, the US has offered concret economic and military assistance if we ally with them.