To few of us, the exalted lot of armchair analysts in PDF, China-India possible conflict is a serious defense issue, therefore— to determine whether it will occur or not—why not we apply the Murphy’s Law—devised by a USAF Captain—necessarily another defense personnel—at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949 while working on Air Force Project MX981, designed to see how much sudden deceleration a person can stand in a crash. Some mortals say, though, actually what he did was take an old law that had been around for years in a more basic form and give it a name.
Aerospace manufacturers picked it up and used it widely in their ads during the next few months, and soon it was being quoted hilariously in many news and magazine articles, and was born the Murphy's Law : "If anything can go wrong, it will". Between China and India many things can go wrong in reality—isn’t it ?
To Bangladeshis, this issue is not a game of killing frogs by over-excited stone-wielding juveniles of the global stage but a matter involving deaths or atleast of deadly issues to us. We just can not be complacent by saying “We will remain neutral—as Switzerland does or did”. We are stronger than Switzerland in worldy terms only in 2 counts : we are 130,000 sq. km + 160 m ; and Switzerland is 40,000 sq.km. + 6 m. But, other than these, what luxury we posses to think so simply ?
Therefore, let us see whether such a war, if at all happens, will Bangladesh be subjected to following dilemas:
1. Will India ask for passage to Bangladesh—in return of what they assisted for in 10 months of 1971 and later to AL ?
2. Will China ask for the same—irrespective of India asked or not—if they can attain a chasing spree over IA within few days/weeks of war ?
3. Will Bangladesh see—in the doldrums of such a war—an opportunity of crashing those dams/barrages India built that are robbing its share of water and again in monsoon, causing floods ? What about disputed border land ?
4. Will Chinese Navy require to arrive in Bay of Bengal and ask Port or any other facilities to Bangladesh ?
5. Will such a war cause hindrance to our import / export affecting all walks of mass ?
6. Will India work harder to keep AL in the helm of Bangladesh—no matter how people of the land judge them—in all the years to come considering only grateful AL will forget all comparative analysis on Bangldesh’s interest, and will assist India come what may ?
7. This war in all probalities will not obliterate any of China and India from the atlas, and both will one day revive. Who will re-appear stronger and dominating in the region and still will remain friendly to us?
8. Whatever is the out come in #7 above, will both or any will return to Bangladesh with vendetta for denying the passage, if so is done by Bangladesh ? What about for destroying any dam / barrage &/or re-taking disputed border land ?
9. Keeping in mind all the economic / technical / technological assistances we enjoyed from both so far, and the relative strength and mindset each posses to do further in future, whom should we assist / support if needs arrive ?
10. Who proved so far its sincere intent to become our ‘Friend in need’ ?
11. Who interfered so far lesser or nil in our internal matters by lending support to only one specific political party or otherwise ?
12. If pressurized by any, how do we react to preserve our interest in all spheres ?
If the replies give us a set of problems to ponder, we must visualize a possible China-India War, and sould start our exercise in all respects to prepare for such a contingency…….keeping aside any debate on—hilarious or not—the Murphy’s Law.