Vision on the Global South

[AndrewJin]

Yup, that's why diversifying the faster the better, not all eggs in one basket.
Like I said, have a balanced view, think global and act local.

顺便提醒兄弟们南亚穷得只剩下买武器自我安慰。面对西方的竞争，从全球贸易和地缘战略角度看，最重要的依次是东亚（日韩港台）、亚欧大陆桥（俄罗斯、德国）、阿拉伯（伊朗）、东南亚、拉美、非洲、南亚（巴铁）。

I have some doubts, where their GDP growth comes from? And which sectors are their foreign investments in?

 

[Aepsilons]

The Global South has not been the center of international spotlight for centuries, be it during the world war times like WWI/WWII, or during peace time when economic development is the main tone of global geopolitics. However these don't rule out the fact that the Global South is home to majority of people on earth, have huge natural resources and growth potential. Other than currently dominant China-West (OECD) trade relation and the grand vision of Eurasian integration, from the events of a series of efforts, apparently China has a clear picture of long-term vision and solid strategy on the Global South. These action plans are being witnessed:

1) ASEAN

Other than the smaller and advanced economy of Singagore, all are nations with huge people/growth potentials in industry, domestic market. Solid actions are taken on 10+1 FTA (ACFTA), 10+3 (JP, SK included, HK likely to join) forum, grand Mekong River development plan, Kunming-Singapore Rail Link, and numerous other sub-regional level or bi-lateral co-operation/initiatives. Despite some minor disruption arises from two bi-lateral territorial disputes, the overall integration progress in deepening fast.

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2) Africa

Africa, a land of 30 million sqm, 1.1 billion people and GDP of US$ 2.39 trillion (2013; If Africa is viewed as a country then it's world's 7th largest economy). Given its massive size, rich resources and fast growing GDP, is probably one of the most favorite destination for Chinese trade investment for decades.

Due to its size and diversity, other than venue like China-Africa Forum, a multitude of sub-regional or bi-lateral co-operations are implemented to cater for unique situations in different region (say North which is part of Arabaic World vs Sub-Saharan Africa) and countries (from relatively more advanced SA, Nigeria to less developed Congo, Angola etc.).

Other than economic ties, certain degree of security co-operation is also boosted to reinforce domestic economic development e.g. Sudan, and with states around Horn of Africa to protect maritime trade/commercial interests.

The Next Rising Country for Investment

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3) South Asia

Despite relatively low economic base in the region, the growth potential is highly optimistic. Trade and investment co-operations with friendly states in the region has been progressing fast, and initiatives from Silk Road (or Maritime Silk Road) like ports (e.g. Gwadar, Chittagang, Colombo), Pak-China economic corridor, infrastructure/utility building (e.g. electricity) and industrial developments would help integrate the regional economy into the prospering Eurasian economic bloc.

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4) Latin America & the Caribbean

Similarly, China is dramatically expanding ties with Latin America in all fields from trade, finance, investments, infrastructure, utility to defense. Another PDF thread for reference:

China's big chess move against the US: Latin America

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5) Arabic World

The Arabic World spans from North Africa to West Asia, and it's highly diversified in geopolitics, economy status (so literally speaking not all of it is regarded as Global South) and even culture. Other than venue like China-Arab Forum, China is also deeply engaged in building/expanding economic tie with each individual country based on country-specific situations. In general, China is already one of the largest trading partner of the Arab world, it not the largest, and the such ties are expected to to further deepen.

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6) Central-Eastern Europe

Though not literally belongs to Global South, similar to the Arab world, its current status and potential are equally attractive. Traditionally China has deep ties with the Eastern Europe region dated back to the Soviet era. Nowadays the main tone of co-operation become economic development. Trade, infrastructure (ports, rail-link, express-ways etc), investment, finance and industrial alliance are the key areas of co-operation. Similar to the ASEAN 10+1 concept, a 16+1 concept is also breeding in the region, with an objective to boost intra-regional economic integration as well as with boost tie with China.

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Currently China's largest trading/investment/tech partners are still the West, namely US, West Europe (Germany is an interesting country to study separately) and East Asia (Japan is also worth studying separately). While China is increasingly betting on a Eurasian integration with Russia and other SCO states, a clear vision as well as well-balanced strategy on the Global South would also be equally important. Ultimately, the Global South is where most people live, where resources are found, and where future growth would be.

The above is a quick and simple summary of it, welcome to add more context, data and analysis on China's vision and strategy on the Global South.

Excellent analysis @Shotgunner51 !!!

 

[Yizhi]

from China investment point of view:
China's global investment has been on a rapid rise.

data: Inward and outward foreign direct investment flows and stock, annual, 1970-2013

the growing Chinese investment overseas is an important component of China's rising global interests. in order to protect China's interests globally both in developed world and developing world, shrewd and well-designed plans & strategies are needed, the focus on Global South is especially crucial to Chinese interests in this sense.
a map of China's global investment:

China Global Investment Tracker Map

the energy pic, deeply intertwined with geopolitical situation of the region.

data: China Global Investment Tracker, August 2014

Great data!

• In fact, both exports/imports with developing countries grow fast, while that with developed countries flatten out since the beginning of this decade.

• Since 2012 China exports to developing countries exceed that of developed, that marks a big difference. China's attention to the Global South pays off.

• Among the Global South, the trade volumes as well as priority of strategic importance are:

ASEAN, the biggest segment as of 2014. With a fairly developed economic base (e.g. Indonesia's GDP per capita has crossed $3000, Thailand has crossed $6000, Malaysia close to $10000), super-advanced finance/tech (e.g. Singapore), and integration with China (e.g. grand Mekong River development, Kunming-Singapore HSR/Rail Link, ACFTA) the 10-country ASEAN is expected to continue be the biggest opportunity for China's whole Global South strategy.

Arab World (IDB-MENA-19; Middle East and North Africa) the 2nd biggest trading partner as of 2014. Oil/energy will be continue to be the primary imports here, while also being a huge market for China's industrial output. China should actively integrate with the Arab World and pursue with action plans like local infrastructure building, Southern flank of Silk Road, Iran/AF/PAK membership in SCO.

Latin America & the Caribbean (S and C America) came 3rd. Rich with natural resources, here will continue to export large amount of commodities to China. And as middle-income group of countries, it will be continue to be China's major export market of consumer goods, machinery, weaponry and civilian nuclear tech, etc.

Sub-Saharan Africa, 4th largest trading partner. Compared to other region, China imports way more than exports here, because this vast continent is an important supplier of oil/energy/materials, while a relatively under-developed economy (2013 avg GDP per capita $1738) doesn't boost much market demand for goods/services. However from an investment point-of-view, there are huge amount of domestic opportunities for China FDI e.g. infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture, energy generation, telecommunication, education, medical etc.

Central and Eastern Europe, the trade volume with China isn't high currently, however as new initiatives (16+1, New Silk Road) takes shape and more Chinese FDI injected into the region's infrastructure/transportation it will be more important to China in the future.

South Asia. The trade volume isn't high as well. Unlike the other regions, the region is much smaller in geographical span and deficient on natural resources hence low exports. On the other hand a relatively weak economic base (2013 avg GDP per capita $1418, lowest among all of above) also result in a low imports data. However, there are opportunities for FDI in areas like infrastructure, manufacturing, civilian nuclear tech etc., especially in friendly states like Pakistan and other IOR countries.​

@AndrewJin

thanks for the thorough analysis!
i think "Global South" as one topic is a bit too broad? maybe we should stick to one specific aspect?

 

[Shotgunner51]

These threads should be inter-linked for thoughtful read:
The Maritime Silk Road of the Manila Galleons
China eyes bigger global role with Chinese solutions

 

[cirr]

What i meant was that India is the Largest Trading partner of China in South Asia so you should have mentioned it in the South Asia section & We are growing faster than all of South Asia except maybe SL

I agree。

 

[AndrewJin]

I agree。

+1

 

[Echo_419]

I agree。

+1

 

[AndrewJin]

I think @Shotgunner51 should further analyse your Global South Theory!

 

[Shotgunner51]

I think @Shotgunner51 should further analyse your Global South Theory!

So many news unfolded these days right? OK bro but where to start it's a broad topic that involves China's economic, foreign and even defence policies? Not to mention the wide geographical span! Which one you want? Instead of write up I better respond to other posts, more confined.

 

[AndrewJin]

顺便提醒兄弟们南亚穷得只剩下买武器自我安慰。面对西方的竞争，从全球贸易和地缘战略角度看，最重要的依次是东亚（日韩港台）、亚欧大陆桥（俄罗斯、德国）、阿拉伯（伊朗）、东南亚、拉美、非洲、南亚（巴铁）。

希望这里的国人多看看，少去扯那些猴子啊之类的，越扯他们越嗨。

 

[Shotgunner51]

希望这里的国人多看看，少去扯那些猴子啊之类的，越扯他们越嗨。

是的别把眼光放在菲越等，现在硬实力没问题但软实力太差，慢慢来没什么好急的。中韩FTA是成绩单，必须继续加深（台韩都是），日本也是同属儒教文明大国只需要警惕右翼，总体中国和同文化的东亚先进国日韩港台（甚至算进去Singapore）必须首先经济一体化作为Pacific战略的先决条件 。然后是ASEAN（10国）他们当中起码一半是铁的，所以大方点少和小兄弟过不去。带上澳洲FTA这个资源供应国，中美竞争中他们不闹事就可以了。

欧亚大陆首是中俄轴心也是全球化核心，团结SCO加巴铁加阿富汗稳定后院，再对接MENA（埃及、KSA、伊朗是3大优先；对敏感议题小心点例如Shia-Sunni冲突或Secular-原教旨）、非洲（西非核心Nigeria及Atlantic沿海国，东非IOR沿海国，南非/Tanzania/Congo等等）、CEE（中东欧10国加Belarus，也是俄罗斯的势力范围）。欧亚非是世界的中心，有资源也有市场，“一带一路”整合。

逐步分化中的西欧中唯一只有先进国德国有意义其他无实力也无所谓，只吸引德国靠近中俄轴心就行，中俄美竞争中他们不闹事就可以了。日德两国是真正意义的工业技术超级大国，必须重视其战略及经济意义。除UK和瑞士两个小国比较特殊的金融地位可以稍微利用，不用理会西欧一众其无拉拢价值的美国小兄弟。

拉美是美国后院必须全力单独开发，有资源也有市场，重点南美大国巴西/阿根廷/智利/Venezuela/秘鲁/古巴等等，在中美主要战略要冲Panama和古巴。

南亚就巴铁为最重要核心，对接MENA/非洲，直接融入SCO及亚欧经济圈，加SL作为海上丝绸之路IOR节点重点开发，孟加拉可以开发，印度既反华也太穷不用理会。

 

[CHN Bamboo]

是的别把眼光放在菲越等，现在硬实力没问题但软实力太差，慢慢来没什么好急的。中韩FTA是成绩单，必须继续加深（台韩都是），日本也是同属儒教文明大国只需要警惕右翼，总体中国和同文化的东亚先进国日韩港台（甚至算进去Singapore）必须首先经济一体化作为Pacific战略的先决条件 。然后是ASEAN（10国）他们当中起码一半是铁的，所以大方点少和小兄弟过不去。带上澳洲FTA这个资源供应国，中美竞争中他们不闹事就可以了。

欧亚大陆首是中俄轴心也是全球化核心，团结SCO加巴铁加阿富汗稳定后院，再对接MENA（埃及、KSA、伊朗是3大优先；对敏感议题小心点例如Shia-Sunni冲突或Secular-原教旨）、非洲（西非核心Nigeria及Atlantic沿海国，东非IOR沿海国，南非/Tanzania/Congo等等）、CEE（中东欧10国加Belarus，也是俄罗斯的势力范围）。欧亚非是世界的中心，有资源也有市场，“一带一路”整合。

逐步分化中的西欧中唯一只有先进国德国有意义其他无实力也无所谓，只吸引德国靠近中俄轴心就行，中俄美竞争中他们不闹事就可以了。日德两国是真正意义的工业技术超级大国，必须重视其战略及经济意义。除UK和瑞士两个小国比较特殊的金融地位可以稍微利用，不用理会西欧一众其无拉拢价值的美国小兄弟。

拉美是美国后院必须全力单独开发，有资源也有市场，重点南美大国巴西/阿根廷/智利/Venezuela/秘鲁/古巴等等，在中美主要战略要冲Panama和古巴。

南亚就巴铁为最重要核心，对接MENA/非洲，直接融入SCO及亚欧经济圈，加SL作为海上丝绸之路IOR节点重点开发，孟加拉可以开发，印度既反华也太穷不用理会。

但是中日关系？怎么解决？

 

[Aepsilons]

Great Analysis @Shotgunner51 ! Keep up these high quality academic posts !

You really are Think Tank Material, IMHO.

 

[Shotgunner51]

但是中日关系？怎么解决？

长话短说，和解决台湾问题一样（怀柔统派，排挤独派）。在面对先进但规模不够大的日本，硬实力例如面积资源人口经济总规模摆在事实面前无须担，推动经济人文社会整合 (Economic integration of East Asia)，只要同时警惕右翼和美国保守势力干预。不用急，日本香港台湾的现状对中国改革有示范和倒逼效果，对中国起的是积极作用。领导层都是磨练出来的的，智慧与眼光不容低估，有信心！

Great Analysis @Shotgunner51 ! Keep up these high quality academic posts !

You really are Think Tank Material, IMHO.

You like the thesis? Thanks, that's a huge compliment especially from poster of your caliber!

 

[XiaoYaoZi]

但是中日关系？怎么解决？

硬实力摆在那呢，日本人现在完全不在状态，对决上招招后手，等过个五六年，就清醒了，到时日本的电子汽车业也败的差不多了。