Inception-06
SENIOR MEMBER
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Pakistan continues to prioritize the development and deployment of new nuclear weapons and delivery systems as part of its ‘full spectrum deterrence posture’ vis-à-vis India.1 It is estimated that Pakistan possessed approximately 160 nuclear warheads as of January 2020 (see table 10.8). Pakistan’s nuclear weapon arsenal is likely to continue to expand over the next decade, although projections vary considerably.2 Pakistan is believed to be gradually increasing its military fissile material holdings, which include both weapon-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium (see section X)
Land-based missiles
Pakistan is expanding its nuclear-capable ballistic missile arsenal, which consists of short- and medium-range systems (see table 10.8). It currently deploys the Abdali (also designated Hatf-2), the Ghaznavi (Hatf-3), Shaheen-I (Hatf-4) and Nasr (Hatf-9) solid-fuelled, road-mobile shortrange ballistic missiles. An extended-range version of the Shaheen-I, the Shaheen-IA, is still in development. The Ghaznavi, Nasr and Shaheen-I were all test launched in 2019.12 The arsenal currently includes two types of medium-range ballistic missile: the liquid-fuelled, road-mobile Ghauri (Hatf-5), with a range of 1250 km; and the two-stage, solid-fuelled, road-mobile Shaheen-II (Hatf-6) with a range of 2000 km.13 The Shaheen-II was test launched in May 2019.14 A longer-range variant, the Shaheen-III, is currently in development but has been test launched once—in 2015.15 The missile has a declared range of 2750 km, making it the longest-range system to be tested by Pakistan to date. A variant of the Shaheen-III, the Ababeel, which is possibly equipped with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) technology, is also in development. It was last test launched in 2017.16 In addition to expanding its arsenal of land-based ballistic missiles, Pakistan continues to develop the nuclear-capable Babur (Hatf-7) groundlaunched cruise missile. The Babur has been test launched at least 12 times since 2005 and has been used in army field training since 2011. An extendedrange version, which is known as Babur-2 and sometimes referred to as Babur Weapon System-1 (B), has a claimed range of 700 km, as against the 350-km range of the original version. It was first test launched in 2016 and was tested for a second time in 2018.17
Sea-based missiles
As part of its efforts to achieve a secure second-strike capability, Pakistan is seeking to create a nuclear triad by developing a sea-based nuclear force. The Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) appears to be intended to develop a nuclear capability for the Pakistan Navy’s three diesel-electric Agosta class submarines.18 The Babur-3 was first test launched in 2017 and was tested for a second time in 2018.19 Pakistan has ordered eight air-independent propulsion-powered conventional submarines from China, the first of which is expected to be delivered in 2022. It is possible that these submarines, known as the Hangor class, might also be given a nuclear role with the Babur-3 SLCM.20
Land-based missiles
Pakistan is expanding its nuclear-capable ballistic missile arsenal, which consists of short- and medium-range systems (see table 10.8). It currently deploys the Abdali (also designated Hatf-2), the Ghaznavi (Hatf-3), Shaheen-I (Hatf-4) and Nasr (Hatf-9) solid-fuelled, road-mobile shortrange ballistic missiles. An extended-range version of the Shaheen-I, the Shaheen-IA, is still in development. The Ghaznavi, Nasr and Shaheen-I were all test launched in 2019.12 The arsenal currently includes two types of medium-range ballistic missile: the liquid-fuelled, road-mobile Ghauri (Hatf-5), with a range of 1250 km; and the two-stage, solid-fuelled, road-mobile Shaheen-II (Hatf-6) with a range of 2000 km.13 The Shaheen-II was test launched in May 2019.14 A longer-range variant, the Shaheen-III, is currently in development but has been test launched once—in 2015.15 The missile has a declared range of 2750 km, making it the longest-range system to be tested by Pakistan to date. A variant of the Shaheen-III, the Ababeel, which is possibly equipped with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) technology, is also in development. It was last test launched in 2017.16 In addition to expanding its arsenal of land-based ballistic missiles, Pakistan continues to develop the nuclear-capable Babur (Hatf-7) groundlaunched cruise missile. The Babur has been test launched at least 12 times since 2005 and has been used in army field training since 2011. An extendedrange version, which is known as Babur-2 and sometimes referred to as Babur Weapon System-1 (B), has a claimed range of 700 km, as against the 350-km range of the original version. It was first test launched in 2016 and was tested for a second time in 2018.17
Sea-based missiles
As part of its efforts to achieve a secure second-strike capability, Pakistan is seeking to create a nuclear triad by developing a sea-based nuclear force. The Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) appears to be intended to develop a nuclear capability for the Pakistan Navy’s three diesel-electric Agosta class submarines.18 The Babur-3 was first test launched in 2017 and was tested for a second time in 2018.19 Pakistan has ordered eight air-independent propulsion-powered conventional submarines from China, the first of which is expected to be delivered in 2022. It is possible that these submarines, known as the Hangor class, might also be given a nuclear role with the Babur-3 SLCM.20
