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Vietnam’s rising stature: Chinese palpable nervousness

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The year 2020 has witnessed substantial raise in the Vietnamese stature in the region and also at the international platform. Vietnam witnessed high level visits recently. Japanese PM Suga’s first foreign visit after taking over was to Vietnam. His predecessor Abe also made his first foreign trip to Vietnam. Recently US Secretary of State Pompeo wrapped up his South East Asian tour in Vietnam.

Japanese PM’s visit was of strategic importance. During his visit, 12 cooperation documents between ministries, branches and enterprises of the two countries in many fields such as infrastructure, energy and digital with a total value of about $ 4 billion. Both nations agreed to promote cooperation in the fields of defence, security, trade and prevention of COVID-19. This would significantly help in building Vietnam’s defence capabilities and industrial development. Earlier the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) had signed with the Vietnam Government an agreement to provide Japanese ODA loans of $347 million for the project to help Vietnam increase maritime security and safety capacity. Within this framework, the Vietnam Coast Guard will be financially supported to build 6 patrol vessels to strengthen its maritime security agency.

Vietnam is emerging as a favourite destination for the Japanese manufacturing firms, who intend to shift their operations from China. In August the then Japanese PM Abe, observing that half of the Japanese businesses that receive support from the Government in expanding supply chains had chosen Vietnam, assured Vietnam of his government’s assistance to such firms for diversifying supply chains.

Crucially both Japanese PM Suga and Vietnamese PM Phuc reaffirmed the importance of ensuring peace, security, safety and maritime and aviation freedom in the East Sea (SCS); promoting the settlement of disputes by peaceful measures; and strictly complying with international laws, especially the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in activities at sea.

The purpose of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit was to boost the US-Vietnamese cooperation, especially in trade and security in the SCS and more broadly in the Indo-Pacific region. He underscored support for the sovereignty of Southeast Asian nations, international law, and a free and open Indo-Pacific. The State Department issued a statement on the day of Pompeo’s visit, “the US respects Vietnam’s rights and interests and seek to preserve peace and uphold freedom of the seas in a manner consistent with international law and that US stands with our Indo-Pacific allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources in the South China Sea, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law”.

In essence, both the visits not only indicated the deepening of relations of Japan and US with Vietnam but also suggested that Vietnam is going to play an important part in shaping the world order by supporting the free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific. It was also an acknowledgement that Vietnamese leadership can carry with it the ASEAN and can be invaluable in containing the Chinese bullying approach. There is no doubt, if the strategic balance is to be maintained based on multipolarity and rule of law, Vietnam’s centrality is imperative.

There are a number of factors responsible for Vietnam’s emergence as an important nation.

First, Vietnam has firmly faced the Chinese belligerence for decades. It fought with China though a small country with limited resources as compared to China. It is the strongest challenger of the Chinese claim over the nine-dashed-line in the SCS. It stiffly resists the Chinese encroachment in its EEZ. These have earned admiration of not only regional countries but also of external powers. Without Vietnam’s strong opposition to the Chinese claim in the SCS, China would have succeeded to a great extent in turning it into its lake.

Second, its economic development has been impressive. Even during the pandemic period, it registered economic growth and its economic growth in 2021 is expected to be 6.8%.

Third, Vietnam has served remarkably as the ASEAN chair and demonstrated its strong and constructive leadership. Despite the Chinese attempts to keep ASEAN divided, this year as Vietnam as the ASEAN chair succeeded in issuing a Joint Statement, without the use of terms like “some leaders” and “some ministers” to express the concerns over the Chinese aggressive activities like in the past.

Fourth, Vietnam’s role as the Non-Permanent Member of UNSC has also been impressive. As the President in the first month, it presided a number of important meetings to discuss security issues in the Middle East, Syria, Colombia, the Central African Republic and West Africa. Vietnam as the President successfully hosted two important meetings on the observance of the UN Charter and cooperation between the UN/UN Security Council and ASEAN. Vietnam chaired a ministerial-level open debate on January 10, 2020 themed “Maintenance of international peace and security: upholding the UN Charter”. In the meeting, Vietnam emphasised the importance of the UN Charter, international law and fundamental principles of respecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries, preventing the use or threat to the use of force and settling disputes by peaceful means. The second meeting initiated a process of consultations between UNSC and ASEAN.

Fifth, Vietnam took a number of steps to deal with the pandemic both domestically and abroad. It admirably dealt with the pandemic in the country resulting in negligible fatalities. It drew attention to the risks of this virus and called for regional and international cooperation early in February. In April, Vietnam organised the online Special ASEAN+3 Summit on the COVID-19 response. The countries agreed to exchange experience and support each other with medical supplies. Vietnam participated in several international virtual meetings and shared its experience and proposed measures to deal with the pandemic. Vietnam also supplied the much-needed medical equipment and protective gears not only in the region but beyond in Asia, Europe, US and South America. It emerged as an effective disease control model.

The rise in Vietnam’s stature is also due to its ability to engage different poles while protecting its sovereignty and economic interests. It has maintained excellent relations within the region as also out of the region. It has close relations with India, Russia. EU and US. It has also maintained close relations with China while resisting its aggressive acts.

Vietnam’s rising stature has caused nervousness in China as reflected in the Global Times. Quoting Qian Feng, the director of the research department at the National Strategy Institute of Tsinghua University in Beijing it said that Pompeo’s Vietnam tour suggested that Washington hoped to win the country to its side to encircle China in the SCS. It further said that Vietnam hoped to use US momentum as a bargaining chip to support itself in the SCS. Reflecting the discomfort, the article said that Vietnam’s discordant voice is no substitute for ASEAN as a whole. It reflects China’s growing worry over Vietnam’s likelihood of joining the Quad to form a stronger “global anti-China alliance”. China views every development through the prism of China-US rivalry, ignoring the global opposition of its hegemonic policy.

Given the Chinese expansionist approach, Vietnam would continue to face serious challenges. To deal with them, Vietnam would have to take suitable measures along with other countries. A well-coordinated strategy should be worked out for early implementation of free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific to have a rule-based order. The Quad nations are interested in having Vietnam with them. They perceive that such a step would act as a force multiplier to contain China and actualisation of the Indo-Pacific strategy. Alongside, the implementation of the PCA Ruling should be pressed as most nations support it.
 
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The year 2020 has witnessed substantial raise in the Vietnamese stature in the region and also at the international platform. Vietnam witnessed high level visits recently. Japanese PM Suga’s first foreign visit after taking over was to Vietnam. His predecessor Abe also made his first foreign trip to Vietnam. Recently US Secretary of State Pompeo wrapped up his South East Asian tour in Vietnam.

Japanese PM’s visit was of strategic importance. During his visit, 12 cooperation documents between ministries, branches and enterprises of the two countries in many fields such as infrastructure, energy and digital with a total value of about $ 4 billion. Both nations agreed to promote cooperation in the fields of defence, security, trade and prevention of COVID-19. This would significantly help in building Vietnam’s defence capabilities and industrial development. Earlier the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) had signed with the Vietnam Government an agreement to provide Japanese ODA loans of $347 million for the project to help Vietnam increase maritime security and safety capacity. Within this framework, the Vietnam Coast Guard will be financially supported to build 6 patrol vessels to strengthen its maritime security agency.

Vietnam is emerging as a favourite destination for the Japanese manufacturing firms, who intend to shift their operations from China. In August the then Japanese PM Abe, observing that half of the Japanese businesses that receive support from the Government in expanding supply chains had chosen Vietnam, assured Vietnam of his government’s assistance to such firms for diversifying supply chains.

Crucially both Japanese PM Suga and Vietnamese PM Phuc reaffirmed the importance of ensuring peace, security, safety and maritime and aviation freedom in the East Sea (SCS); promoting the settlement of disputes by peaceful measures; and strictly complying with international laws, especially the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in activities at sea.

The purpose of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit was to boost the US-Vietnamese cooperation, especially in trade and security in the SCS and more broadly in the Indo-Pacific region. He underscored support for the sovereignty of Southeast Asian nations, international law, and a free and open Indo-Pacific. The State Department issued a statement on the day of Pompeo’s visit, “the US respects Vietnam’s rights and interests and seek to preserve peace and uphold freedom of the seas in a manner consistent with international law and that US stands with our Indo-Pacific allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources in the South China Sea, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law”.

In essence, both the visits not only indicated the deepening of relations of Japan and US with Vietnam but also suggested that Vietnam is going to play an important part in shaping the world order by supporting the free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific. It was also an acknowledgement that Vietnamese leadership can carry with it the ASEAN and can be invaluable in containing the Chinese bullying approach. There is no doubt, if the strategic balance is to be maintained based on multipolarity and rule of law, Vietnam’s centrality is imperative.

There are a number of factors responsible for Vietnam’s emergence as an important nation.

First, Vietnam has firmly faced the Chinese belligerence for decades. It fought with China though a small country with limited resources as compared to China. It is the strongest challenger of the Chinese claim over the nine-dashed-line in the SCS. It stiffly resists the Chinese encroachment in its EEZ. These have earned admiration of not only regional countries but also of external powers. Without Vietnam’s strong opposition to the Chinese claim in the SCS, China would have succeeded to a great extent in turning it into its lake.

Second, its economic development has been impressive. Even during the pandemic period, it registered economic growth and its economic growth in 2021 is expected to be 6.8%.

Third, Vietnam has served remarkably as the ASEAN chair and demonstrated its strong and constructive leadership. Despite the Chinese attempts to keep ASEAN divided, this year as Vietnam as the ASEAN chair succeeded in issuing a Joint Statement, without the use of terms like “some leaders” and “some ministers” to express the concerns over the Chinese aggressive activities like in the past.

Fourth, Vietnam’s role as the Non-Permanent Member of UNSC has also been impressive. As the President in the first month, it presided a number of important meetings to discuss security issues in the Middle East, Syria, Colombia, the Central African Republic and West Africa. Vietnam as the President successfully hosted two important meetings on the observance of the UN Charter and cooperation between the UN/UN Security Council and ASEAN. Vietnam chaired a ministerial-level open debate on January 10, 2020 themed “Maintenance of international peace and security: upholding the UN Charter”. In the meeting, Vietnam emphasised the importance of the UN Charter, international law and fundamental principles of respecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries, preventing the use or threat to the use of force and settling disputes by peaceful means. The second meeting initiated a process of consultations between UNSC and ASEAN.

Fifth, Vietnam took a number of steps to deal with the pandemic both domestically and abroad. It admirably dealt with the pandemic in the country resulting in negligible fatalities. It drew attention to the risks of this virus and called for regional and international cooperation early in February. In April, Vietnam organised the online Special ASEAN+3 Summit on the COVID-19 response. The countries agreed to exchange experience and support each other with medical supplies. Vietnam participated in several international virtual meetings and shared its experience and proposed measures to deal with the pandemic. Vietnam also supplied the much-needed medical equipment and protective gears not only in the region but beyond in Asia, Europe, US and South America. It emerged as an effective disease control model.

The rise in Vietnam’s stature is also due to its ability to engage different poles while protecting its sovereignty and economic interests. It has maintained excellent relations within the region as also out of the region. It has close relations with India, Russia. EU and US. It has also maintained close relations with China while resisting its aggressive acts.

Vietnam’s rising stature has caused nervousness in China as reflected in the Global Times. Quoting Qian Feng, the director of the research department at the National Strategy Institute of Tsinghua University in Beijing it said that Pompeo’s Vietnam tour suggested that Washington hoped to win the country to its side to encircle China in the SCS. It further said that Vietnam hoped to use US momentum as a bargaining chip to support itself in the SCS. Reflecting the discomfort, the article said that Vietnam’s discordant voice is no substitute for ASEAN as a whole. It reflects China’s growing worry over Vietnam’s likelihood of joining the Quad to form a stronger “global anti-China alliance”. China views every development through the prism of China-US rivalry, ignoring the global opposition of its hegemonic policy.

Given the Chinese expansionist approach, Vietnam would continue to face serious challenges. To deal with them, Vietnam would have to take suitable measures along with other countries. A well-coordinated strategy should be worked out for early implementation of free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific to have a rule-based order. The Quad nations are interested in having Vietnam with them. They perceive that such a step would act as a force multiplier to contain China and actualisation of the Indo-Pacific strategy. Alongside, the implementation of the PCA Ruling should be pressed as most nations support it.
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Imagine
This is dubious India stroking Vietnam's ego and tries to divide and conquer on East Asia countries.

Vietnam is not East Asian though. There are just four East Asian countries: China, Japan and the two Koreas. Vietnam is Southeast Asian and Mongolia is North Asian.
 
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Singapore and Vietnam are also considered a part of the East Asian cultural sphere due to its cultural, religious, and ethnic similarities.

I should have been clearer that I was using East Asia as a geopolitical term rather than a cultural term. Vietnam is geopolitically a part of Southeast Asia. It's a member of ASEAN rather than part of the "+3". We have the China–Japan–South Korea trilateral summit which Vietnam isn't a party. Granted the current geopolitical concept of East Asia as China Japan and Korea is the result of the collapse of the tributary system of Imperial China. But I just don't see a return to a geopolitical concept of East Asia including Vietnam without the end of U.S. influence in the region.

As a cultural term, I prefer the Japanese/Chinese counterparts to "East Asian cultural sphere", which literally translates as "Han characters cultural sphere". Vietnam no longer uses Han characters. China, Japan and South Korea are in talks to choose 1,000 basic Han characters so people from the three countries can communicate by writing. It's mostly a feel good project without any real world impact but Vietnam wasn't even invited because they completely abolished the use of Han characters.

When South Vietnam president Ngo Dinh Diem visited South Korea in 1957 he gifted a poem in Classical Chinese to the South Korean president Yi Seung-man in which Ngo referred Vietnam and Korea as brotherly nations who share a written language. I have no problem with Vietnam's moving away from Han characters, the system doesn't suit the Vietnamese language, but without this fundamental connection Vietnam is going to drift culturally further and further away from China, Japan and Korea.

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Is this a joke or do Vietnamese seriously believe this stuff?

Vietnam barely has a higher overall GDP than Guizhou, which is top three poorest province in China.
 
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Imagine


Vietnam is not East Asian though. There are just four East Asian countries: China, Japan and the two Koreas. Vietnam is Southeast Asian and Mongolia is North Asian.
Doubt the Japanese or the koreans want to be associated with the Chinese in any way, though the chinese seem to be very keen to be associated with them.
Japanese and Korean societies are developed and i am not talking about the economics side. Socially.
 
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