The navy is good I'm with you on that, but it's already outnumbered by the PLAN navy and the gap is widening year on year, as for tech it is comparable for both sides. That's not a good situation. You've mentioned their lack of long range strike missiles which now a days counts as a disability in conflict situation, you might as well not fight than be struck by salvo after salvo.
Yes they have a great history of naval warfare but when was the last time they fought a conflict? In light of the stresses they face resource wise, population wise, just how long would they last?
I'm not underestimating them I'm questioning their ability to sustain a prolonged fight and even the will to fight. Remember that survey done i.e. regarding on whether people would fight for their country, Japan came bottom.....
Their war fighting days are over.