Vietnam to become world’s 19th largest economy by 2035: CEBR

[xuxu1457]

best wishes， besides viet，Are there any real member from Vietnam in this forum?
viet It seems that he live in Germany and may not know clearly about today Vietnam .

 

[flowerfan2020]

I would say just a wishful think for Vietnam. The reality always go different way but I wish you a good luck.

 

[Cliftonite]

In 1960s, IMF and WB predicted the Phillipines

The Americans left Philippines with a strong economy. Corruption destroyed it.

 

[Viet]

I though it has become their congress domain now and we have to wait the result that could take some time. Dont forget that Republican is majority in congress now (cannot be controlled by Biden), I dont know about their senate though.

No. the Democrats have the majority in the first chamber, House of Representatives.
The decision who has the majority in the second chamber, the Senate, will be decided in few days in Georgia.

 

[Indos]

The Americans left Philippines with a strong economy. Corruption destroyed it.

Their progress is slowing after they embrace democracy. Democracy needs strong civilian institution and basically it is not one man show, so the entire society quality become very crucial to determine the output. Some how if you look on Catholic majority country, they are less successful than Protestant countries like US/Britain/German/France.

The culture of following their priest/Church without question could damage their critical thinking ability, it is different with Protestant that has freedom of thinking and within Protestant they can make church that have different teaching with the other church.

In Islam I think Islam Modernist movement is also vary valuable to create freedom of thinking and dont just follow Ulama doctrin. I believe their movement in early 1900 has created a better Muslim society that is quite competitive in this modern world.

Indonesia second largest Islam organization which is Muhammadiyah is part of Islam Modernist movement. We dont regard Ulama too high here, as for Traditional Islam they tend to regard Ulama too high and like to kiss Ulama hand when they meet.

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Muhammadiyah (Arabic: محمدية‎, followers of Muhammad; full name: Persyarikatan Muhammadiyah) is a major Islamic non-governmental organization in Indonesia.[1] The organization was founded in 1912 by Ahmad Dahlan in the city of Yogyakarta as a reformist socioreligious movement, advocating ijtihad - individual interpretation of Qur'an and sunnah, as opposed to taqlid - the acceptance of the traditional interpretations propounded by the ulama.[2]

Since its establishment, Muhammadiyah has adopted a reformist platform mixing religious and secular education,[3] primarily as a way to promote the upward mobility of Muslims toward a 'modern' community and to purify Indonesian Islam of local syncretic practices.[3] It continues to support local culture and promote religious tolerance in Indonesia, while a few of its higher education institutions are attended mostly by non-Muslims, especially in East Nusa Tenggara and Papua provinces. The group also runs a large chain of charity hospitals,[1] and operated 128 universities as of the late 1990s.[4]

In 2008, Muhammadiyah was considered the second largest Islamic organization in Indonesia with 29 million members.[2] Although Muhammadiyah leaders and members are often actively involved in shaping the politics in Indonesia, Muhammadiyah is not a political party. It has devoted itself to social and educational activities.

Muhammadiyah - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Viet]

5 fold in less 15 years? Just did the math, 1.1^15=4.177, which means vn should maintain more than double-digit growth for the next 15 years even with the inflation factor considered... But unfortunately, you didn't even achieve that when you have such a low base...

Western media, you know...
This is called 'China can so we can serie 中国行我也行系列'

nonsense
the math is this, Gdp in 15 y with 350b as start base and 7 pct growth: 350*(1+0,07)^15=966
with 600b currency appreaciation and inflation we will have 1,6 trillion.

 

[casual]

I think vietnam can do better then 19th. 6-7% per year is too conservative. Vietnam is one of only a few countries in the world where the government is capable of long term planning.

 

[Indos]

No. the Democrats have the majority in the first chamber, House of Representatives.
The decision who has the majority in the second chamber, the Senate, will be decided in few days in Georgia.

I dont know much about that but the fact is your country has been designated as currency manipulator, together with Swizz. This is actually just an excuse due to their irritated fealing over your huge trade surplus with them. You have been targeted and labelled and we should wait whether Biden administration will increase the pressure by imposing more tariff to your goods or maintain the same Trump policy to keep pressuring your Central Bank to appreciate your Dong currency or relaxing the measure as you hope.

From where I see, I think much of your export is actually a transhipment like what Singapore does which make Singapore becomes one of the top 20 exporter countries in the world. More exactly a transhipment from Chinese goods that try to dodge from US tariff on Chinese goods, this is why there is huge jump happen since 2018 on your export to USA.

My suggestion is that to curb that transhipment activity since they dont create any value added activity inside Vietnam and only benefit your trader and port. The measure will ultimately reduce your export figure but it will create more room from your manufacturing industry to penetrate US market and relax your investor worry since US administration will also welcome that and consequently reduce their pressure on your home country.

 

[HassanCheema]

Economies proped up by regional conflicts can't survive for long time.

I don't think Vietnam want to replace china in the world.she doesn't have capacity to do it.if I put it mildly.

Have nothing against them.all the best.hope asia prosper.

 

[Viet]

I dont know much about that but the fact is your country has been designated as currency manipulator, together with Swizz. This is actually just an excuse due to their irritated fealing over your huge trade surplus with them. You have been targeted and labelled and we should wait whether Biden administration will increase the pressure by imposing more tariff to your goods or maintain the same Trump policy to keep pressuring your Central Bank to appreciate your Dong currency or relaxing the measure as you hope.

From where I see, I think much of your export is actually a transhipment like what Singapore does which make Singapore becomes one of the top 20 exporter countries in the world. More exactly a transhipment from Chinese goods that try to dodge from US tariff on Chinese goods, this is why there is huge jump happen since 2018 on your export to USA.

My suggestion is that to curb that transhipment activity since they dont create any value added activity inside Vietnam and only benefit your trader and port. The measure will ultimately reduce your export figure but it will create more room from your manufacturing industry to penetrate US market and relax your investor worry since US administration will also welcome that and consequently reduce their pressure on your home country.

It’s a myth that we use chinese transshipment to make the money. The US is not that stupid. Vietnam exporters must show certificates of origin.
Trump targets Vietnam because he realized he is not the winner of the trade war. He hates it when he is labeled as loser.

 

[Indos]

It’s a myth that we use chinese transshipment to make the money. The US is not that stupid. Vietnam exporters must show certificates of origin.
Trump targets Vietnam because he realized he is not the winner of the trade war. He hates it when he is labeled as loser.

Trade war actually is won by US if you see the deal. Despite so as US industry relatively loss its competitiveness over Chinese and in some extend to East Asian countries (that include ASEAN) so it does make sense that China export can still grow while US trade deficit keeps widening during the trade war.

Trump administration has also targeted Malaysia if you dig more about the matter, but not yet any aggressive action being made by US administration to them since you are the one that has the highest trade surplus with US that needs to be engaged first. Your trade surplus with US is double the surplus made by Malaysia at around 27 billion USD. Any error made by Malaysian have also been taken care as we see US has impose sanction to one of their biggest palm oil producer and ban their glove company due to their treatment to foreign labors.

 

[S10]

I think it's doable for Vietnam, assuming no major conflict in the next 10 years. That's a big assumption though. They're sitting on islands within the Nine Dash Line, and I don't see China doing nothing given the fact that Vietnam is trying to cozy up to US and Japan.

After Taiwan (~2025 to 2030), South China Sea will be the next focus.

 

[Viet]

Trade war actually is won by US if you see the deal. Despite so as US industry relatively loss its competitiveness over Chinese and in some extend to East Asian countries (that include ASEAN) so it does make sense that China export can still grow while US trade deficit keeps widening during the trade war.

Trump administration has also targeted Malaysia if you dig more about the matter, but not yet any aggressive action being made by US administration to them since you are the one that has the highest trade surplus with US that needs to be engaged first. Your trade surplus with US is double the surplus made by Malaysia at around 27 billion USD. Any error made by Malaysian have also been taken care as we see US has impose sanction to one of their biggest palm oil producer and ban their glove company due to their treatment to foreign labors.

The US imports per year $3 trillion in goods and services from abroad, only $80 billion last year from Vietnam. That is less than 3 pct. that’s nit much, not something that US should worry about.
True our forex is rising however like our GDP our reserves is tinny if compared to other Asean partners like Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia.
If Trump wants more trade wars, he can target them. Yes why not target the oil sheik Singapore?

 

[Mista]

The US imports per year $3 trillion in goods and services from abroad, only $80 billion last year from Vietnam. That is less than 3 pct. that’s nit much, not something that US should worry about.
True our forex is rising however like our GDP our reserves is tinny if compared to other Asean partners like Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia.
If Trump wants more trade wars, he can target them. Yes why not target the oil sheik Singapore?

The US has trade surplus against Singapore, and for Trump who thinks trade is only bilateral, he likes it lol.