Vietnam strategic plans for building defence capability: Facts and Analysis

[BoQ77]

Why we would not see any purchase of US fighters in near future?

This section isn't for the dream

Lack of infrastructure for Western origin weapon.
None of pilots and maintainers for US fighters
Refering to Indonesia deal of F-16, the US is ok for the deal in 2011 and it takes some years for the first batch to be regenerated, renew and delivered. While Indonesia is familiar with US fighters already.

That lead to any deployable fighter has US origin wouldn't be seen in 3-4 years from now in Vietnam.
I expect something during 2020-2023, and a training base in Vietnam about 2017-2018

1. The pilot who was invited to US for Aviation Leadership Program ( ALP ) wouldn't completed his training in less than 2 years ( Iraqi pilot need 3 years ). It estimated that in 2017 he could finish his course and back to Vietnam.
2. A training base in Vietnam in 2017 and some trainer aircrafts, maintainers would be ready during 2017-2018.

So next purchase possibly still Airbus EC-295 ( AEW ) because Vietnam facility is ready for C-295, pilots trained, maintainers ready, ... as C-295 was order on or about 2009-2010 and 3 of them in service now !!! Vietnam declared FOC of them

 

[BoQ77]

Who saves Spratly island for Vietnam ?
....................................................................

 

[BoQ77]

Who saves Spratly island for Vietnam ?
....................................................................

In 1988, No Russian help. Vietnamese helped themselves to save Spratly islands and features.
With support of Vietnam Air Force Su 22. Later They are Su 27, 30.. And growing Navy.

In the future, Vietnam doesnt count on American help to save Spratly, again, Vietnamese would save themselves.
With...

 

[BoQ77]

Air Force is the key for Vietnam to save Spratly features for the past 25 years.
Especially, Su-22 is the only choice for nearly 10 years 1988-1997, and still in service to protect Vietnam Spratly.
After 1997 until now, the key role passed to Su-27 and later Su-30.

 

[William Hung]

In 1988, No Russian help. Vietnamese helped themselves to save Spratly islands and features.
With support of Vietnam Air Force Su 22. Later They are Su 27, 30.. And growing Navy.

In the future, Vietnam doesnt count on American help to save Spratly, again, Vietnamese would save themselves.
With...

In 1988, the Su-22 was not used in any missions in the SCS. But it still achieved the mission of safeguarding the rest of the spratlys by just sitting in its aircraft hangar.

Have you read the interview of a Chinese PLAN Admiral who was invovled in the 1988 skirmish? He explained how back in the 1980s, they believed that the air-defence of the PLAN ships was no match for the Su-22, so even though they could have taken more islands in 1988, they decided not to because they feared the Su-22. So, we could say the Su-22 achieved its mission of safeguarding the rest of the spratlys just by sitting in its hangar.

 

[William Hung]

In 1989 Vietnam acquired more Su22, are you sure their destiny is in hangar too?

Su-22 was only sitting in the hanga in 1988 skirmish, but it still prevented the PLAN from taking more islands.

I’ll tell you something funny...

In 1988, the VPAF was scared to use the Su-22 to intervene in the naval skirmish.

But the PLAN did not know this. At that time, they were also scared of the Su-22 intervening. So, they didn’t dared to take the other islands.

The Su-22 was scared of the PLAN ships and the PLAN ships were scared of the Su-22. LOL

Its called deterrence.

Deterrence prevented further bloodbath.

 

[William Hung]

Your info could be funny story.

100% fact VNPAF did not send Su-22 to 1988 skirmish.

I also have a copy of the Chinese language interview of the PLAN Admiral explaining his fleet was too wary of Su-22 to take more islands.

Its a true fact, Su-22 was scared of PLAN ships and PLAN ships was scared of Su-22.

 

[BoQ77]

100% fact VNPAF did not send Su-22 to 1988 skirmish.

I also have a copy of the Chinese language interview of the PLAN Admiral explaining his fleet was too wary of Su-22 to take more islands.

Its a true fact, Su-22 was scared of PLAN ships and PLAN ships was scared of Su-22.

Lansdowne reef was saved by Su22.
the first flight of Su22 to Spratly was in 10 Feb 1988 as test.
Surveillance flight was by AN-26

The limit is land based navigating radar system, CAs capability.

Actually, Su-22 was transfered from Thanh Hoa to Phan Rang and start the training in sea operations in Nov 1987. The condition is very critical because the range of land based radar doesn't cover Spratly, while the absence of radar in Su-22 made the mission harder.
The appearance of Su-22 in Lansdowne reef in April 1988 could be considered as great effort,
That marked the first milestone of naval air force to save offshore features.
This explain why Vietnam continue to acquire more Su-22M4 one year later 1989. and others until year 2000s.

- The economy situation at the time
- The cheap price of secondhand Su-22
- The role in protecting Spratly of Su-22 during 1980s , 1990s
We could see Vietnam tried their best to manage their tight budget to achieve the occupation of nowaday 34 features in Spratly in the hardest time. No offshore navy, no advanced fighters.
It's lucky that Vietnam coast is closer to Spratly , compare to China.

That's why when China went for Su-27, Vietnam must buy Su-27 after that... because Su-22 isn't competitor of Su-27

Xuất kích giữ đảo Len Đao

Trong chiến dịch CQ-88, ngay từ đầu chủ trương của ta là chỉ sử dụng các lực lượng vận tải và công binh để thực hiện đóng quân bảo vệ chủ quyền, không để đối phương tạo cớ đánh chiếm toàn bộ quần đảo khi lực lượng của ta còn mỏng do phải căng sức trên toàn bộ tuyến biên giới phía Bắc và Tây Nam vì vậy không quân tiêm kích ít khi hiện diện trên quần đảo Trường Sa. Thực hiện nhiệm vụ lúc này là các máy bay vận tải AN-26 của Trung đoàn 918.

Từ ngày 1/3-20/4/1988, Trung đoàn không quân 918 thực hiện 10 chuyến bay ra Trường Sa quan sát chụp ảnh, thông báo tình hình đối phương trên biển về sở chỉ huy. Ngay sau trận chiến ở đảo Gạc Ma, ngày 14-15-16/3/1988, máy bay An-26 của Không quân Việt Nam đã bay ra Cô Lin, Len Đao trinh sát trận địa nhưng Trung Quốc cũng điều máy báy ngăn chặn.

Ngày 30/3/1988, tư lệnh Quân chủng Không quân ra chỉ thị về việc tăng cường bay huấn luyện trên biển xa cho Su-22M nhằm nâng cao khả năng tác chiến trên biển. Ngày 24/4, quân chủng quyết định điều thêm 3 chiếc Su-22M từ Thọ Xuân vào Phan Ranh. Cuối tháng 6, có thêm 10 chiếc Su-22M nữa vào Phan Rang.

Một tháng sau sự kiện ngày 14/3, Hải quân đi trên tàu chiến hải quân, chở theo 35 lính công binh và 7 lính hải quân do Tư lệnh Vùng 4 Hải quân chỉ huy được trang bị súng 12ly7, DKZ… quay lại quyết giành lại Len Đao và Gạc Ma. Trước khi đi, phía ta đã xác định có thể xảy ra chiến sự, lực lượng của ta mỏng, trong khi Trung Quốc tàu lớn, quân đông và họ cũng quyết liệt xâm chiếm đảo của ta.

Từ 2h sáng, Hải quân Việt Nam bí mật cho xuồng nhỏ vào thăm dò, rồi cho người tiếp cận Len Đao và Gạc Ma. Tuy nhiên ta chỉ có thể cắm cờ lên đảo Len Đao. Tại Gạc Ma, phía Trung Quốc đã xây nhà cấp tốc và giăng lưới điện xung quanh đảo nên các chiến sĩ không tiếp cận được.

Buổi sáng ra, phát hiện ra ta cắm cờ ở Len Đao, Trung Quốc cho 7 tàu chiến và vô số xuồng nhỏ bao vây, uy hiếp. Hải quân Việt Nam vẫn kiên quyết bám đảo dù lực lượng của ta ít hơn rất nhiều.Không khí hết sức căng thẳng, trận chiến rất dễ xảy ra, nhưng trên bầu trời xuất hiện 7 máy bay chiến đấu của Việt Nam bay từ đất liền ra quần đảo,ngay lập tức phía tàu Trung Quốc tản ra. Bộ đội ta tiếp tục hoàn thành nhiệm vụ xây dựng công sự và bảo vệ vững chắc đảo Len Đao cho đến ngày hôm nay.

Không quân Việt Nam đã góp phần giữ vững chủ quyền đảo Len Đao năm 1988

Tiếp tục những chuyến bay nối đất liền và đảo xa

Nhận thấy sự cần thiết tăng cường lực lượng Không quân trong nhiệm vụ bảo vệ quần đảo Trường Sa, ngày 10/6/1988, Tư lệnh Không quân phê duyệt lại kế hoạch triển khai nhiệm vụ bảo vệ và chi viện Trường Sa. Quân chủng chủ trương sử dụng các lực lượng hiện có (gồm tiêm kích đánh chặn MiG-21bis, cường kích Su-22M, vận tải cơ An-26 và trực thăng Mi-8/Ka-25) thực hiện 4 nhiệm vụ chính: bay trinh sát, vận chuyển đường không; tấn công các mục tiêu trên biển và đảo; tiêm kích bảo vệ đội hình chiến đấu không quân - hải quân; hiệp đồng chặt chẽ với hải quân và phòng không bảo vệ Trường Sa.

Ngày 24-28/6 hai biên đội Su-22M (4 chiếc) của trung đoàn 923 lần lượt bay nhiệm vụ ra đảo Trường Sa và An Bang.

Từ 24 đến 29/10/1988, Quân chủng Không quân tham gia đợt diễn tập chi viện quần đảo Trường Sa (mang tên CV-88). Địa điểm diễn tập là căn cứ Phan Rang, Cam Ranh và vùng biển hai tỉnh Phú Khánh - Thuận Hải. Lực lượng tham gia có: máy bay tiêm kích - bom Su-22M (Trung đoàn 923), 2 trực thăng Mi-8 (Trung đoàn 917), 2 máy bay vận tải An-26 (Trung đoàn 918)…

Trong diễn tập, phi đội Su-22M thực hiện các phương án tấn công tiêu diệt và ngăn chặn đội hình hải quân địch trên biển, chi viện yểm hộ cho hải quân phản công chiếm lại đảo. Đội hình tiêm kích đánh chặn MiG-21 yểm trợ bảo vệ đội hình tàu và máy bay Su-22M. Các đơn vị trực thăng Ka-28, Mi-8, vận tải An-26 làm nhiệm vụ trinh sát, chuyển quân, tìm kiếm cứu nạn.

Ngày 25/11/1988, tổng tham mưu trưởng ra mệnh lệnh bảo vệ Trường Sa, khu vực biển và thềm lục địa. Ở phía Nam, Quân chủng Không quân tích cực tham gia bảo vệ Trường Sa, khi tàu nước ngoài gây ra chiến sự thì phối hợp với hải quân đánh bại họ ở vùng biển quần đảo Trường Sa.

Với sự xuất hiện của những chuyến xuất kích của Không quân Việt Nam trên quần đảo Trường Sa năm 1988, chúng ta đã góp phần ngăn chặn được âm mưu đánh chiếm quần đảo Trường Sa của Trung Quốc góp phần cùng quân chủng Hải quân đóng giữ và bảo vệ thắng lợi 11 đảo mới với 32 điểm đóng quân.

Sau năm 1988, lực lựng Không quân đánh biển được chú trọng ưu tiên hiện đại hóa để đáp ứng yêu cầu trong tình hình mới.

Năm 1989, các máy bay Su-22M4, biến thể hiện đại nhất của dòng Su-22 thay thế Su-22M làm nhiệm vụ bảo vệ Trường Sa.

 

[BoQ77]

In the future, Vietnam doesnt count on American help to save Spratly, again, Vietnamese would save themselves.
With...

F18 ( replace Su 22 )
or F35

US would replace F16/F18 by F35
10 years from now there is big chance to buy cheap, secondhand stuff but could use most of deployable weapons, while F35 not and expensive.
From 2026, F35 is more reasonable choice..

 

[BoQ77]

The wish list for US assets ( that could be true or not ):
- Intelligence information ( military satellites ) for South China Sea movements
- Long range advance radars
- Oliver Hazard Perry-class EDA ( then to be upgraded to include MK-41 VLS cells like G-class frigate)
- MPA ( P-3C or SC-130J )
- AAV-7
- Osprey V-22 / SH/MH-60 helicopter
- Stinger / TOW / Javelin
- F16 EDA
- SAM ( Sea RAM, SM-xx )

-- Two (2) Oliver Hazard Perry Class Frigates (FFG-7) being provided as Excess Defense Articles (EDA). Each vessel will be equipped with:
-- the MK-92 Mod 6 Fire Control System;
-- the SQQ- 89V(9) Anti-Submarine Warfare System;
-- the MK-75 76mm Gun System,
-- Phalanx 20mm Close-In Weapon System (CIWS) (Block 18),
-- MK-13 Guided Missile Launching System (GMLS),
-- AN/SLQ-32 Electronic Warfare System,
-- SPS-49 Radar,
-- SQR-19 Towed Array Sonar,
-- SQS-56 Sonar,

spare and repair parts, publications and technical documentation, personnel training and training equipment, provisioning, system integration, U.S. Government and contractor logistics, engineering, and technical support services, and other related elements of logistics and program support.

The estimated cost is $190 million.

MK41 Mod 16

-------------

The Mk 41 is capable of firing the following missiles: RIM-66 Standard, RIM-67 Standard, RIM-161 Standard Missile 3, RIM-174 Standard ERAM, Tomahawk, RUM-139 VL-ASROC, RIM-7 Sea Sparrow, and RIM-162 ESSM. The missiles are pre-loaded into "canisters", which are then loaded into the individual "cells" of the launcher. The ESSM is loaded in a quad-pack with 4 missiles in one Mk 25 canister. Launcher cells are fitted to ships in 8 cell (2 rows of 4) modules that share a common uptake hatch (exhaust system) sited between the two rows. Mk 41 VLS adopts modular design concept, which result in different versions that vary in size and weight due to different "canisters" in various modules. The height (missile length) of the launcher comes in three sizes: 209 inches (5.3 m) for the self-defense version, 266 inches (6.8 m) for the tactical version, and 303 inches (7.7 m) for the strike version. The empty weight for an 8-cell module is 26,800 pounds for the self-defense version, 29,800 pounds for the tactical version, and 32,000 pounds for the strike version.

 

[cochine]

Now That Vietnam Can Buy U.S. Weapons, What Will It Want?

(I can't past here the link)

Vietnamese navy officers (in white) talk with U.S. sailors aboard the guided missile destroyer USS Chafee in the central Vietnamese city of Danang in 2012. The two countries have increased military cooperation in recent years and President Obama announced Monday that he was lifting the ban on weapons sales to Vietnam.
Hoang Dinh Nam/AFP/Getty Images

President Obama's decision to lift a decades-old ban on the sale of lethal military equipment to Vietnam opens up potentially lucrative contracts for U.S. defense companies.

The Vietnamese leadership has been pushing hard for access to American military systems and has a relatively small but quickly growing defense budget, says Ben Moores, a defense specialist at the consultancy IHS Janes. He says that includes a roughly $13 billion wish list for military equipment.

"That's everything from tanks, armored personnel carriers, attack helicopters, tactical helicopters, long range radars, maritime patrol aircraft. So they've got a wide range," he says.

Vietnam has had a long relationship with Russia, from which it buys more than 80 percent of its military hardware.

Anthony Nelson of the US-ASEAN Business Council says lifting the arms embargo doesn't mean Vietnam will rush into the arms of U.S. weapons manufacturers.

"I don't think it's a kind of transformative development," he says. "It's not going to immediately lead to enormous arms purchases or a complete reboot of their military."

But China — Vietnam's regional rival — is also familiar with the Russian weaponry, and Hanoi will likely want to diversify as tensions grow in the South China Sea.

A Vietnamese man and child look at models of weapons at the Vietnam People's Air Force Museum on May 23 in Hanoi. President Obama announced during the first day of his visit this week that the U.S. is fully lifting its embargo on sales of lethal weapons to Vietnam.

Linh Pham/Getty Images

Nelson says this is where U.S. defense companies will look to compete with sophisticated technology especially for use at sea.

"In particular in command and control, in maritime domain awareness, in communications ... it's going to make a big difference," he says. "U.S. companies will definitely be interested in competing there."

Nelson points to Lockheed Martin's P-3 Orion patrol craft, which he says could help in submarine command and control, and Raytheon's radar systems designed for maritime use.

But the U.S. has plenty of competition besides Russia.

Greg Poling, an Asia specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says Vietnam already buys missiles from India, radar from Israel, and coast guard vessels from Japan and Korea.

Poling says lifting the embargo will not likely be an immediate windfall for U.S. defense companies. He says the move is more symbolic than a nod to American arms manufacturers.

"What this really is is a symbol of is the normalization of relations," says Poling. "That we're finally at a normal partnership with Vietnam."

He said that move was inevitable, but "certainly the fear that China has created has helped accelerate that timetable by several years."

Analysts say it could take several years before any U.S. weapons system arrives in Vietnam. Two years ago, the administration partially lifted the lethal weapons ban for Vietnam's maritime defense, yet there still hasn't been a major purchase from the U.S.

 

[BoQ77]

Do you prefer the MK41 or UVLM ? @Carlosa @JaiMin @William Hung

MK41 canister types

32 ESSM ( 4ea per cell ) incl. in this armed onto 1700- 2000 ton Thai frigate. Naresuan

Australia Adelaide ( OHP class ) 4,100 ton

 

[William Hung]

Do you prefer the MK41 or UVLM ? @Carlosa @JaiMin @William Hung

MK41 canister types

32 ESSM ( 4ea per cell ) incl. in this armed onto 1700- 2000 ton Thai frigate. Naresuan

Australia Adelaide ( OHP class ) 4,100 ton

I like the Mk41 for air defence missiles and the Russian UKSK for anti-ship and land-attack missiles.

I'm Chinese American and I only buy made in China products to support Chinese economy.

Bad move on our government part to allow weapons sales to Vietnam, which is but a pawn in the big game against China.

Hehehe another butthurt and sour-grape comment from a Chinese. I’m starting to think this lift of arms embargo is really hurting some Chinese members here.

 

[SvenSvensonov]

- SAM ( Sea RAM, SM-xx )

You have your choice of ESSM:

Or SM-2:

ESSM is a mid-range air-defense weapon with a range around 60km. SM-2 is a fleet defense missile with a range around 90-100km depending on the variant. Both have been widely exported

The same can't be said for SM-3 and SM-6.

Forget about SM-3. This is the world's premier ABM system with an ASAT capability as well:

And SM-6 is our cutting-edge fleet-defense missile.

SM-3 requires the highly restricted Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense software that is not included in the main Aegis package and is a package only Japan shares with the US.

The SM-3 also uses different sensors then SM-2 and SM-6 for terminal guidance, the latter two can use the SPG-61 illuminator (though SM-6 can be cued without it too):

Being supplied with the critical systems, ones even top-tier allies aren't privy to is really stretching the discussion into unrealistic territory. SM-6 is currently used by the US and several top-tier allies like Japan and Australia and has a range twice that of SM-2 and is a capable BMD weapon as well. It is a restricted weapon based on its range and capabilities.

SeaRAM may be pushing it for a new partner, even with the arms embargo lifted, that does not mean you have unrestricted access to US weapons and systems.

RAM on the other hand is a completely viable solution for short-range air-defense.

SM-2, RAM and ESSM are options Vietnam can leverage. SM-6 and SM-3 (and probably SeaRAM) aren't even offered to top-tier allies. Forget them.

Make no mistake, we consider Vietnam a friend now and an important player in the SCS who can help with our geopolitical aims, but we don't yet fully trust your commitment either. Start small, prove to us you can be trusted and then we'll talk about our high-tier systems.

Hehehe another butthurt and sour-grape comment from a Chinese. I’m starting to think this lift of arms embargo is really hurting some Chinese members here.

Yeah, his comment is suspicious. Most Americans see Vietnam as a counterweight to China and, though maybe not happy to proliferate arms, aren't adverse or opposed to them either.

I support the sale of weapons to Vietnam, though initially, until Vietnam proves its trustworthiness and longevity as a partner to us, second-hand weapon systems.

PAC-2 and perhaps PAC-3, P-3, SM-2 and RAM, the remaining Perrys, unarmed UAVs and AUVs, the LCS if Vietnam was interested. God knows someone has to be interested in them.

HMWWVs, M60s in storage, M113s, HAWK batteries, Harpoon missiles... it's not good equipment by our standards, considering they've all been phased out, but they're still respectable. But our relations and levels of trust are going to take time to foster. We aren't opening the floodgates immediately.

Americans don't feel like he does towards Vietnam, we are supportive.

 

[William Hung]

You have your choice of ESSM:

Or SM-2:

ESSM is a mid-range air-defense weapon with a range around 60km. SM-2 is a fleet defense missile with a range around 90-100km depending on the variant. Both have been widely exported

The same can't be said for SM-3 and SM-6.

Forget about SM-3. This is the world's premier ABM system with an ASAT capability as well:

And SM-6 is our cutting-edge fleet-defense missile.

SM-3 requires the highly restricted Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense software that is not included in the main Aegis package and is a package only Japan shares with the US.

The SM-3 also uses different sensors then SM-2 and SM-6 for terminal guidance, the latter two can use the SPG-61 illuminator (though SM-6 can be cued without it too):

Being supplied with the critical systems, ones even top-tier allies aren't privy to is really stretching the discussion into unrealistic territory. SM-6 is currently used by the US and several top-tier allies like Japan and Australia and has a range twice that of SM-2 and is a capable BMD weapon as well. It is a restricted weapon based on its range and capabilities.

SeaRAM may be pushing it for a new partner, even with the arms embargo lifted, that does not mean you have unrestricted access to US weapons and systems.

RAM on the other hand is a completely viable solution for short-range air-defense.

SM-2, RAM and ESSM are options Vietnam can leverage. SM-6 and SM-3 (and probably SeaRAM) aren't even offered to top-tier allies. Forget them.

Make no mistake, we consider Vietnam a friend now and an important player in the SCS who can help with our geopolitical aims, but we don't yet fully trust your commitment either. Start small, prove to us you can be trusted and then we'll talk about our high-tier systems.



Yeah, his comment is suspicious. Most Americans see Vietnam as a counterweight to China and, though maybe not happy to proliferate arms, aren't adverse or opposed to them either.

I support the sale of weapons to Vietnam, though initially, until Vietnam proves its trustworthiness and longevity as a partner to us, second-hand weapon systems.

PAC-2 and perhaps PAC-3, P-3, SM-2 and RAM, the remaining Perrys, unarmed UAVs and AUVs, the LCS if Vietnam was interested. God knows someone has to be interested in them.

HMWWVs, M60s in storage, M113s, HAWK batteries, Harpoon missiles... it's not good equipment by our standards, considering they've all been phased out, but they're still respectable. But our relations and levels of trust are going to take time to foster. We aren't opening the floodgates immediately.

Americans don't feel like he does towards Vietnam, we are supportive.

Thanks for the info and explanations. I expect some Vietnamese news media will publish an article based on similar views soon. Seriously.

hey @BoQ77, I just noticed your name is in green, 8000 posts already! :omg: congrats, well deserved for being a respectable member.