Well, IMO, currently, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP) is still in power and control are part of the extremist elements in the country. However, the forces of the CPP has declined sharply after the general election in 2013, and the risk they will be defeated by CNRP and other extremist parties in a general election expected in 2018 is entirely possible . If the CNRP power, a possibility that bilateral tensions can escalate quickly if they proceed the policy like under Pol Pot with Mao ideology influence, it reminiscent of the period of the years 1977-78. Until then, VN will have difficult time to cope.
When deciding to send troops to liberate Cambodia in late 1978, Vietnam has not fully anticipated adverse consequences. But even with such consequences, we must also understand that until then, the Khmer Rouge's 19 divisions are mobilized to the Southwest border and doing scorched Earth policy, genocide almost all the citizen no matter the origin (include Khmer, Chinese, Vietnamese, Laotian....) near VN and Cambodia border. As a result, Vietnam has fallen into a state of "dilemma". So, perhaps the most simple lesson but most importantly, we have identified serious risks early of extreme nationalism is rising in Cambodia, though may pose as a party "Communist "(the Khmer Rouge) or" democracy "(as CNRP), and soon find countermeasures to solve the issue
Before send troop to liberate Cambodia from Khmer Rouge, many of our policy maker believe it will be Internation Acclaim as Deputy Foreign Minister Phan Hien and Prime Minister Pham Van Dong have visited the Southeast Asian countries, which majority condemned the action of Khmer Rouge. Meanwhile, the spokesman of many Western countries, including US President Jimmy Carter, who criticized the genocidal Khmer Rouge regime and their supporter. However, after our troop land in Cambodia, many of the developed countries such as the Federal Republic of Germany, Japan, France, ... stop or suspend aid to Vietnam, ASEAN from cooperate with Vietnam for normalization to embargo with the People's Republic of Kampuchea whose Vietnam supported. America and their Western counterpart suspend relations or normalization with Vietnam, all seem to have led policy makers in our country by surprise. They have completely misunderstood the world public opinion in general and the region in particular, do not understand that in the context of Cold War tensions back then which can escalate to another Total War, as the result, the countries (especially in the region) have seriously advocated stability and regional security rather than justice of the overthrow of sectarian genocide in that time. Because of not understanding the stance of the World at that time, Vietnam has been isolated for so many years.
Thus, before going a big step, it is best to study deeply and carefully about what the reaction of world opinion. Perhaps policy makers should speak frankly about Vietnam plan with important countries and more reliable than the type of Phan Hien insinuating and Pham Van Dong in 1978. However, the situation like 1978 or 1979 can hardly happen again as the US and its allies will be easily tilted more toward Vietnam as concern to China, but the US is still support both party in Cambodia financially and politically as they promote the banner of DEMOCRACY, so their stance and opinion are not so clear.
In this context, we need to understand that while China may try to use divide and conquer strategy in ASEAN with Cambodia and unwieldy in terms of strategy for Vietnam as interest and benefit are difference.in SCS, the nature of the problem southwest border is neo extreme nationalism, derived from internal Cambodia, affected in part because of the history between 2 countries in past 5 centuary and the downfall of Khmer Empire and maybe the consequence of staying too long in Cambodia to kick Khmer Rouge vestige after the Liberation.
To solve this problem, build an understanding with China is not enough. We must fight to win the heart and minds of the people of Cambodia. We also need to focus on understanding and cultural communication, reconnect special feelings between the two peoples like when Khmer King ask for help and 1979 event to eliminate Khmer Rouge, and absolute respect for the sovereignty of both countries regardless of tension
Well, IMO, currently, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP) is still in power and control are part of the extremist elements in the country. However, the forces of the CPP has declined sharply after the general election in 2013, and the risk they will be defeated by CNRP and other extremist parties in a general election expected in 2018 is entirely possible . If the CNRP power, a possibility that bilateral tensions can escalate quickly if they proceed the policy like under Pol Pot with Mao ideology influence, it reminiscent of the period of the years 1977-78. Until then, VN will have difficult time to cope.
When deciding to send troops to liberate Cambodia in late 1978, Vietnam has not fully anticipated adverse consequences. But even with such consequences, we must also understand that until then, the Khmer Rouge's 19 divisions are mobilized to the Southwest border and doing scorched Earth policy, genocide almost all the citizen no matter the origin (include Khmer, Chinese, Vietnamese, Laotian....) near VN and Cambodia border. As a result, Vietnam has fallen into a state of "dilemma". So, perhaps the most simple lesson but most importantly, we have identified serious risks early of extreme nationalism is rising in Cambodia, though may pose as a party "Communist "(the Khmer Rouge) or" democracy "(as CNRP), and soon find countermeasures to solve the issue
Before send troop to liberate Cambodia from Khmer Rouge, many of our policy maker believe it will be Internation Acclaim as Deputy Foreign Minister Phan Hien and Prime Minister Pham Van Dong have visited the Southeast Asian countries, which majority condemned the action of Khmer Rouge. Meanwhile, the spokesman of many Western countries, including US President Jimmy Carter, who criticized the genocidal Khmer Rouge regime and their supporter. However, after our troop land in Cambodia, many of the developed countries such as the Federal Republic of Germany, Japan, France, ... stop or suspend aid to Vietnam, ASEAN from cooperate with Vietnam for normalization to embargo with the People's Republic of Kampuchea whose Vietnam supported. America and their Western counterpart suspend relations or normalization with Vietnam, all seem to have led policy makers in our country by surprise. They have completely misunderstood the world public opinion in general and the region in particular, do not understand that in the context of Cold War tensions back then which can escalate to another Total War, as the result, the countries (especially in the region) have seriously advocated stability and regional security rather than justice of the overthrow of sectarian genocide in that time. Because of not understanding the stance of the World at that time, Vietnam has been isolated for so many years.
Thus, before going a big step, it is best to study deeply and carefully about what the reaction of world opinion. Perhaps policy makers should speak frankly about Vietnam plan with important countries and more reliable than the type of Phan Hien insinuating and Pham Van Dong in 1978. However, the situation like 1978 or 1979 can hardly happen again as the US and its allies will be easily tilted more toward Vietnam as concern to China, but the US is still support both party in Cambodia financially and politically as they promote the banner of DEMOCRACY, so their stance and opinion are not so clear.
In this context, we need to understand that while China may try to use divide and conquer strategy in ASEAN with Cambodia and unwieldy in terms of strategy for Vietnam as interest and benefit are difference.in SCS, the nature of the problem southwest border is neo extreme nationalism, derived from internal Cambodia, affected in part because of the history between 2 countries in past 5 centuary and the downfall of Khmer Empire and maybe the consequence of staying too long in Cambodia to kick Khmer Rouge vestige after the Liberation.
To solve this problem, build an understanding with China is not enough. We must fight to win the heart and minds of the people of Cambodia. We also need to focus on understanding and cultural communication, reconnect special feelings between the two peoples like when Khmer King ask for help and 1979 event to eliminate Khmer Rouge, and absolute respect for the sovereignty of both countries regardless of tension
. I said that because I believe China needs no solid reason to interfere VN-Cambodia business like last time.
