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I highly doubt, they will go in. Saudi military is incompetent and operating far from its own borders is not something they have been trained or equipped for. Besides, the international law is very clear on this. For example Russia operates in Syria because it has been invited the the government of Syria. Saudis do not have a UN mandate, neither they are invited by the government of Syria.
These rumors, are being created to show to Saudi supporters around the world, and the Saudi supported rebels in Syria that Saudi Arabia is still relevant to geopolitics of the region. The truth is, Saudi Arabia is quickly becoming a joke. Not only they have lost their geopolitical influence but are on their way to go bankrupt. The Yemeni war, Saudis started is soon to become one year old, and Saudis have utterly failed to achieve any strategic objective there.
With international community pushing for stabilization of Syria under Assad and the success of Syrian Military on the ground, combined with utter failure of Saudis in Yemen on top of Saudis bleeding economically, are all causing Saudi Arabia to become more and more desperate by the hour to show some "victory" to its supporters and save face. Alas, there is no victory in sight and Saudis are cornered from all sides. Even their daddy has started to think about ditching them: A Senator Is Questioning The U.S.-Saudi Relationship At Just The Right Moment
They are being told by their master, that they should start reforming themselves internally and forget about trying to be a geo-strategic player. And this also, from the mouth of President of United States of America.
@Vauban seems like Saudis took another route.
I hardly believe its true, KSA doesnt have the capability to meddle in Syria, its the playground of East vs. West, too big to play your own games.Ironically,i totally forgot the Jordanian route.
First i thought these troops were heading to Jordan because KSA including Jordan and other arab armies are organizing a large scale exercise,but then i remember that the exercise is organized in KSA.
Now,if the authenticity of this video is confirmed,the coming developments are going to be interesting.
It seems almost idiotic actually. A nation of only some 25 million and already engaged in another front to their south (vs Yemen, which is also a rather densely populated nation of 23 million), it is unwise for the Saudis to mobilize their ground forces in Syria knowing (or not knowing) full well the complexity in engagig in military operations too far away from your borders. The logistical issue is a concern for them since any supply to Syria will require constant flows through Syria, Egypt and Jordanian territories. Then one has to account for contingency plans in the event that their expeditionary forces are "erased" in an unfortunate "what if" (but highly possible) scenario. A military catastrophe in the north, coupled with a failure in their Yemeni campaign (which could actually turn out to haunt Riyadh, as there is the likelihood of a Yemeni erosion and could spiral to affect southern KSA) would be detrimental to them given their current situation (economic, and political).
A two front war from a rather minuscule nation of only 25 million? I think its foolhardy, actually. Saudi Arabia is nearly 1/4th the size of IRAN. How in the world will they deliver ? Beyond comprehension. Either way, i don't think this will be a long term operation, probably a short term Rapid Reaction Force.
It is just chest thumping. Nothing more. Both IMF and World Bank are warning that Saudis will go bankrupt.
Saudis Arabia imports all of what it consumes. It is a one trick pony. It sells oil and uses that money to import cars, food, clothes, doctors, construction workers, baby-sitters, military hardware, mercenary soldiers etc etc. Saudis going bankrupt will mean dismantling of the state and famine since Saudi Arabia does not grow its own vegetables, pulses, potatoes etc. It has to import everything. EVERYTHING.
If the price of oil remains low, and they burn through their savings, they are done. Finished. No body will even lend them anything of substance. Already they know that, so they have started to talk about selling Aramco, their golden egg laying geese to international bankers. They have started to moot the idea of selling their oil fields to foreigners. They say, when a cargo ship starts to sink, all the rats start running for the deck. That is what is happening here. The Saudi leaders are selling whatever remains in that desert whether oil fields or hospitals, and want to run to safety in Paris, Alps or California.
Saudis have lost in Syria, big time. This much is clear. These rumors are just for saving face infront of their stooges. That's it. Nothing more. They release these kind of rumors which you must have seen coming out of Riyadh in the past few months like: Yemeni Alliance, Military Coalition of Islamic Countries, and deploying a force of 1.5 million to Syria and 2.5 million to Palestine and 4.5 million to Brazil . These are just big talk rumors to save face. Nothing of substance.
The ship is sinking.
A most accurate and precise appraisal of the situation, my friend, tho i assume our Saudi and pro-Saudi friends will be against our calculations. Nonetheless, truth is truth, and these geopoltical machinations are happening as we speak. In fact I never have said this before openly because of my sensitivity to not offend pro-Saudi individuals, but logicl and my ethos deigns me , compels me to say this: Thank God for Iran. Yes, i mean it. Why? Well without Irani resurgence then Saudi Arabia is enabled , uncontended, to deploy their Takfiri ideology funded by oil wealth (which they used as a political tool, if i may add) throughout the region. This undermines regional local dialectic by supporting a foreign and alien (Takfiri Wahhabism) in areas that are not historically even Saudi or of the Arabian peninsula ergo Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Morrocco, Pakistan, Indonesia , et al. in fact it makes one appreciate the rol of Wahhabism to Saudi Arabia's modern history and most importantly the longevity of the Saudi Royal Family. Let's expand on this historical aspect, shall we?
Wahhabi preachers and fighters embedded their tenets and institutions into Arabian society so deeply that even the return of moderate Sunni ideas to the region when the Ottoman Empire demolished Saudi power did not eradicate extremism. Wahhabism survived and provided the ideological basis for the Saudi return to power as the Emirate of Nejd between 1824 and 1891, with the capital city at Riyadh, and as the third Saudi kingdom starting in 1932.
When he began conquering Arabia, Abdulaziz ibn Saud (ruled 1932–53) deployed Wahhabism as a religio-political means of uniting the Peninsula’s restive tribes. Submission to Allah’s absolute will, as interpreted by Wahhabi doctrine and upheld by the House of Saud became a rallying cry. Wahhabism served Saud’s descendants in the ruling family as a bulwark against Arab Nationalist rivals like Egypt, Syria, and Iraq, who were turning to the Soviets during the 1960s and 1970s. Faced with that rise of secularism and fueled by oil money, King Faisal ibn Abdulaziz al-Saud (ruled 1964–75) decided the propaganda of Wahhabism, which proclaims the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as the sole rightful defender of Islam, would become the long-term strategy for the monarchy’s survival.
When Afghanistan, another largely Sunni country nearby, moved from Soviet influence to Soviet control, in 1979, the House of Saud saw an opportunity to project itself as the global defender of Muslims. This view coalesced with the Cold War aims of the US, which saw the Saudi desire to weaponize Islamist ideology as tactically useful in the West’s struggles against the Soviet Union. As later described in testimony before the US Senate Judiciary Committee, and listed on the late King Fahd’s website, Saudi Arabia spent $4 billion per year on mosques, madrassas, preachers, students, and textbooks to spread the Wahhabi creed over the next decades. Thousands of Muslim centers sprang up along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan and then in Afghanistan itself—training not scholars but jihadis equipped with Wahhabi ideology and American weapons. The madrassas in Arabia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan produced al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The US did not foresee that foreign fighters drawn to the Afghan jihad might carry violence back to their native lands as al-Qaeda affiliates spread across the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and South Asia.
And now here we are, in this time and place. Wherein the former Saudi-supported (well some would argue KSA still supports these groups, tho not directly nor publicly tho implicitly) groups are now the source of regional instability in Pakistan's restive north and western provinces, Afghanistan, and into Central and Western Asia. Lastly, my friend @Daneshmand --- its almost glaringly awing to know that even today the Saudi Leadership even feel that Pakistan is OBLIGATED to defend Saudi Arabia , despite the implicit actions KSA has done to undermine Pakistan's national territoriality , particularly in the war against their Insurgency , which has cost Pakistan nearly $60 Billion and thousands of soldiers' lives. With one hand the Saudi Leadership fund their radical madrasas that encourage and cultivate takfiri ideology and anti-governmentism, yet with the other hand Riyadh asks the same Pakistan to help defend its national solidarity, in the name of Islam? The height of pretension and the height of arrogance, as if Saudi Arabia or the House of Saud is the epitome and physical representation of Islam? NEVER.
Now going back to my appraisal of Iran in context to Saudi Arabia; it seems that Iran is the only country that openly and directly confronts and challenges Saudi regional dialectics. There must be a balance , and fortunately Iran is the nation with resources and ability to counter any unilateralism in the region. I suppose we should consider multilateralization in this aspect to regional dynamic. Afterall, the Near East is the antithesis of homogeneity and thus all variables (ethnic, linguistic, religious sect, political doctrine) have to be taken into consideration.
Regards,
Kenji
A most accurate and precise appraisal of the situation, my friend, tho i assume our Saudi and pro-Saudi friends will be against our calculations. Nonetheless, truth is truth, and these geopoltical machinations are happening as we speak. In fact I never have said this before openly because of my sensitivity to not offend pro-Saudi individuals, but logicl and my ethos deigns me , compels me to say this: Thank God for Iran. Yes, i mean it. Why? Well without Irani resurgence then Saudi Arabia is enabled , uncontended, to deploy their Takfiri ideology funded by oil wealth (which they used as a political tool, if i may add) throughout the region. This undermines regional local dialectic by supporting a foreign and alien (Takfiri Wahhabism) in areas that are not historically even Saudi or of the Arabian peninsula ergo Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Morrocco, Pakistan, Indonesia , et al. in fact it makes one appreciate the rol of Wahhabism to Saudi Arabia's modern history and most importantly the longevity of the Saudi Royal Family. Let's expand on this historical aspect, shall we?
Wahhabi preachers and fighters embedded their tenets and institutions into Arabian society so deeply that even the return of moderate Sunni ideas to the region when the Ottoman Empire demolished Saudi power did not eradicate extremism. Wahhabism survived and provided the ideological basis for the Saudi return to power as the Emirate of Nejd between 1824 and 1891, with the capital city at Riyadh, and as the third Saudi kingdom starting in 1932.
When he began conquering Arabia, Abdulaziz ibn Saud (ruled 1932–53) deployed Wahhabism as a religio-political means of uniting the Peninsula’s restive tribes. Submission to Allah’s absolute will, as interpreted by Wahhabi doctrine and upheld by the House of Saud became a rallying cry. Wahhabism served Saud’s descendants in the ruling family as a bulwark against Arab Nationalist rivals like Egypt, Syria, and Iraq, who were turning to the Soviets during the 1960s and 1970s. Faced with that rise of secularism and fueled by oil money, King Faisal ibn Abdulaziz al-Saud (ruled 1964–75) decided the propaganda of Wahhabism, which proclaims the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as the sole rightful defender of Islam, would become the long-term strategy for the monarchy’s survival.
When Afghanistan, another largely Sunni country nearby, moved from Soviet influence to Soviet control, in 1979, the House of Saud saw an opportunity to project itself as the global defender of Muslims. This view coalesced with the Cold War aims of the US, which saw the Saudi desire to weaponize Islamist ideology as tactically useful in the West’s struggles against the Soviet Union. As later described in testimony before the US Senate Judiciary Committee, and listed on the late King Fahd’s website, Saudi Arabia spent $4 billion per year on mosques, madrassas, preachers, students, and textbooks to spread the Wahhabi creed over the next decades. Thousands of Muslim centers sprang up along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan and then in Afghanistan itself—training not scholars but jihadis equipped with Wahhabi ideology and American weapons. The madrassas in Arabia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan produced al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The US did not foresee that foreign fighters drawn to the Afghan jihad might carry violence back to their native lands as al-Qaeda affiliates spread across the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and South Asia.
And now here we are, in this time and place. Wherein the former Saudi-supported (well some would argue KSA still supports these groups, tho not directly nor publicly tho implicitly) groups are now the source of regional instability in Pakistan's restive north and western provinces, Afghanistan, and into Central and Western Asia. Lastly, my friend @Daneshmand --- its almost glaringly awing to know that even today the Saudi Leadership even feel that Pakistan is OBLIGATED to defend Saudi Arabia , despite the implicit actions KSA has done to undermine Pakistan's national territoriality , particularly in the war against their Insurgency , which has cost Pakistan nearly $60 Billion and thousands of soldiers' lives. With one hand the Saudi Leadership fund their radical madrasas that encourage and cultivate takfiri ideology and anti-governmentism, yet with the other hand Riyadh asks the same Pakistan to help defend its national solidarity, in the name of Islam? The height of pretension and the height of arrogance, as if Saudi Arabia or the House of Saud is the epitome and physical representation of Islam? NEVER.
Now going back to my appraisal of Iran in context to Saudi Arabia; it seems that Iran is the only country that openly and directly confronts and challenges Saudi regional dialectics. There must be a balance , and fortunately Iran is the nation with resources and ability to counter any unilateralism in the region. I suppose we should consider multilateralization in this aspect to regional dynamic. Afterall, the Near East is the antithesis of homogeneity and thus all variables (ethnic, linguistic, religious sect, political doctrine) have to be taken into consideration.
Regards,
Kenji
New Recruit
From day one what i read from you about wahabism and KSA. You are still babeling about KSA, the fact is ther Wahabism spreading politics is stopped, most of the Arab world reject the Wahabism. Now we have Shia dilemma, you so loved Iran is sending over every muslim countries over the world ayatollahs. Your knowledge about wahabism is a bit outdated. If you had writed 5 years ago i would agree with you, but the fact is we have bigger problems. Iran is spreading ther secterian politics, and you are still talking about Wahabism.
Ther is two options about you. First you don't have a cleu about the current situation in the middle east. Or you are a dirty secterian shia.