Viable Replacement of Fokker F27-200 and Breguet Atlantique I?

[ANG]

Hi Mr. Fatman17, you have a very valid point. Nowadays, all aircraft have parts from many different countries. Airbus has a high US content and conversely Boeing has a large European content. Moreover, case in point, CASA of Spain gave up trying to sell the CN-235 to Venezuela, after they could not replace US parts, after the US did not give them permission for the sale to Venezuela. CASA found out reengineering the plane with European parts was cost prohibitive.

What I should have said is, the PN should focus on the "least sanction prone" platform. I personally like the A319MPA or the Embraer platform, they would be nice counters to the IN's P-8A Poseidon, Boeing 737 based MPAs.

 

[muse]

Once people said it was impossible to be free of US fighter jets, then we developed JFT -- The enmity of the West and US is a God send - we should use it to create the Will to overcome and do without the West and US.

US ships and US aircraft means a constant threat poised at the jugular of the nation, far from a asset for the defense of the nation they are a weapon that can be turned against Pakistan at any moment.

 

[Penguin]

Once again, such an important element such as early warning, surveillance, electronic collection and counter measures, command and control will reside in assets prone to US and Western sanctions regime -- I really don't know what the US and West have to do for Pakistanis to seriously understand that US and West is no friend of Pakistan, in fact cannot be a friend - really I don't know what ti would take.

Nice that you would lump al of us in 'the West' together like that. As for being friends, it works both ways: if your starting point is that it can't work then it will never work.

And meanwhile dependence on one source (West) is replaced by another (China). You are kidding yourself when you think China is doing what it does out of friendship: countries don't operate that way, they look solely at how their interests are best served. The main difference between US / West and China lies in their time horizon: the Chinese have tend to a much longer term gameplan in mind.

 

[muse]

Don't misunderstand, I don't begrudge West for who they want as friends and who they don't - that's up to them and Pakistan should have no say so in that and I very much agree with you that it has to be a two way street - all I'm saying is the truth, Pakistan and THE West have and will continue to have divergent interests -- so yeah, you be you, and that's OK.

We're kidding ourselves about China? Ok, so then why the concern? See, even you no longer believe this line that it's just about interests - see that 2 way street you were talking about, it was about friendship not interests, though the interests (Rationale, Reason) fortifies the SENTIMENT.

 

[bc040400065]

Once again, such an important element such as early warning, surveillance, electronic collection and counter measures, command and control will reside in assets prone to US and Western sanctions regime -- I really don't know what the US and West have to do for Pakistanis to seriously understand that US and West is no friend of Pakistan, in fact cannot be a friend - really I don't know what ti would take.

Total agree sir. I don't know what our military is upto if they have not learned from 60's, 70's, and 90's. Even now we are paying heavy price for these fancy toy which might not be of any use in time of need.

On topic i think Y-8 MPA would be a better choice.

 

[Penguin]

Don't misunderstand, I don't begrudge West for who they want as friends and who they don't - that's up to them and Pakistan should have no say so in that and I very much agree with you that it has to be a two way street - all I'm saying is the truth, Pakistan and THE West have and will continue to have divergent interests -- so yeah, you be you, and that's OK.

We're kidding ourselves about China? Ok, so then why the concern? See, even you no longer believe this line that it's just about interests - see that 2 way street you were talking about, it was about friendship not interests, though the interests (Rationale, Reason) fortifies the SENTIMENT.

No, I think it is about interest and I don't see how looking for a two way street is at odd with that. As for that two way street, I was comparing 'you scratch my back, I scratch yours' with 'you scratch my back, I scratch my belly".

 

[muse]

I take your point though I can't find myself agreeing that the characterization you suggest is one I am suggesting -- The perception of divergent interests does not arise from back or belly, in other words, so whether you wish to go back or belly, either way, there will be, increasingly greater, dissonant tones between the two.

The US and by extension the West are aware of this and plan for it, awareness or consciousness raising and consensus in Pakistani society and particularly in lower and mid ranking officers or the armed forces has not as yet caught up with the prevailing sense of the public with regard to associations with the US and the West, and greater efforts will need to be expended to ensure these levels of professional soldiers are clear with regard to friend and foe.

 

[fatman17]

today's friend is tomorrow's enemy and vice-versa.

for the US, selling arms is a foreign policy tool which they can 'turn the tap on or off' so to speak. we as a country have learned our lesson the hard way and have made great 'strides' to diversify our legitimate conventional and nuclear needs.

for the Chinese, selling 'cheap' arms is a business but as their arms capability develops (and they are closing the gap) they too will use this aspect as a foreign policy tool. it is in-evitable. until this happens, Pakistan will need to have a mix of west and east in their weapons selection.

it is all about 'influence and domination of the world'. China is fast replacing Russia as a 'Super-Power foe' to the US. it too will change its 'friendly stance' towards Pakistan whether we like it or not.

its not about emotions!!!

 

[muse]

Typical Pakistani error:

Apples juice is sweet
Cola is sweet
Apple juice is cola


Fatman, US and China are powerful nations does not mean they follow the same policy, China is a neighbor, it's policy whatever it may be, is bound to be different from that of the US -- this plus any number of differences, first and foremost among them is that the US's strategic ally is our primary adversary and that of China - how you paper over this huge difference is well, actually I don't know how you made that jump - oh wait, they are both powerful countries

 

[fatman17]

why suddenly you brought India into this i dont know!? it was about weapons acquisitions.

US's strategic ally is our primary adversary and that of China

 

[muse]

It pertains to policy - it's absolutely fundamental, basic - and that's the only reason - Just a while ago, there was a ruckus about how Pakistan had taken US missiles and made them into land attack missiles - it was a complete canard to exert political pressure and focus the Pakistani military officers mind on what kinds of weaponry was at stake and these are "reliable" friends or suppliers?

 

[Aamir Hussain]

A number of Platforms are available but as some of us have pointed out -- the sensors and the weapons suite are made by a few countries and in the end we would eventually end up being sanctioned one way or another if we end up in situation where we are going to be sanctioned -- therefore, the argument going for those platforms that are not of US origin is a double edged sword. I think over the years PN has gone for availability, affordability and quality --with some gap filled up by less than optimum platforms.

I think that we are over the biggest sanction-able "Offense," if we want to call it, of going nuclear. Pakistan needs to navigate carefully through the foreign policy challenges that, for the most part, it has created for itself and try to steer clear of areas where we are potentially going to end up in zero sum game.

We need to choose battles which we can win -- no use trying to take on fights that others have lost in the past. There are no prizes for losers. We need to wait and bid our time when we can take on the major powers.

Till then I am all for the Orion, a potent platform available at little or no cost. On the other hand, every other platform out there is prone to sanctions; while we pay a higher cost for their induction, the same fear of limited operational capability in a crunch situation will remain intact. At least the Orion is an older platform and spares are available from other sources if we do end up facing crunch time.

 

[muse]

Why not think and plan for the day we can do for ourselves:

I think that we are over the biggest sanction-able "Offense

That means there are a whole bunch of things Pakistan can be sanctioned for -- and trust me, this problem of sanctions and such, these are a structural problem so far as relations with the US are concerned...This tool will be used more and more by the US, because Pakistani and US relations are not rooted or grounded in anything other than immediate policy objectives.

See, the US does want to present herself as part of the solution, but friends, Pakistan and US articulate the problem differently, in essence they see two different problems - The US has no intention of being of assistance in furthering Pakistani interests and the US will not accept Pakistan not assisting the furtherance of US interests. Pakistan simply will not agree to destroying her national interests and the US insists that Pakistan do just that.

Today whatever US weapons or platforms in the Pakistan inventory are essentially useless - Pakistan is essentially paying a rent to own them and maintain them, without the option of exercising control over where and when it may use these weapons in the eventuality of hostilities .

Once it was articulated that our only options were F16 and when some refused to accept that, we created JFT with the Chinese -- Chinese too have some experience with maritime patrol and perhaps Pakistan can benefit from a consortium that includes China, Brazil and Russian expertise in these fields -- We don't have a choice other than ditching the US, she is poison and a threat to Pakistan, as Pakistan is presently constituted.

JFT took off as a project pretty fast, though the Super 7 projected suffered from both the constraints of will and resources - It's absolutely essential that Pakistanis technicians and engineers institutionalize as much technical know how as they can amalgamate from these platforms they presently employ and plan for joint research and production projects with reliable partners.

The PN may want to use it's present inventory and not purchase any US platform for a 7 to 10 year period in which it's joint effort with partners, results in effective platform(s)

 

[nightcrawler]

PN needs to look at UAVs as well, not just MPAs. A hybrid force of MMA and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV’s) would most effectively provide the required capabilities. With notional changes to a typical Patrol Squadron’s aircraft composition of 9 aircraft, to perhaps 7 aircraft and the utilization of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV’s) which are permanently forward deployed, a Navy would quite easily increase its ISR capability, while simultaneously maintaining its ASW capability. See e.g. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA493115

This I find an interesting airframe option (harking back to the days of the PBYs like the Catalina)
Beriev - A-40 amphibious aircraft
Beriev Be-200 - amphibian

Pics source: Beriev - Photos 1998-2003

This is a detailed modern outlook with respect to these hydroplanes [as they are known in Russia]
DefenceDog: Demise of Hydro-Aviation_Russia

 

[Aamir Hussain]

Muse:

Agree with a lot of what you have written about our relationship with US -- but let us not portray ourselves as naive young bride here. We did what we had to do over the years to keep ourselves in lime light on the world platform and in the process took some (I hope) calculated risks including facing sanctions etc.

The game we are well adept at playing (and India also) is best played when there is a bi-polar world. Luckily for us, China is fast becoming a giant here and we have started having second thoughts vis a vis our relationship with the US. There is nothing wrong with this but let us have a game plan in place to get the best of both worlds. Right now my fear is that instead of playing from a play book we are stumbling along from one crisis to another with the US. This is highly risky when our economy is dependant upon the west to bail us out at this point in time.

As far as weapons procurement is concerned -- let us try to get the best of the both; China and US as much as we can.

The current situation demands that we buy time until our economy is brought back on track and China can fully take over as our key weapon supplier of quality. Even than we should be careful not to put all our eggs in one basket. Because, very soon China would logically use weapons sale as a political tool too!

My humble opinion.