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Venezuela Collapse 2016

C130

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Venezuela is on the verge of collapse this year. It will not be able to service it's debts while also maintaining it's social spending . Inflation is forecast to be over 700% by the end of this year.

I think there are two or more scenarios that will happen this year


1) Maduro will either be removed from office legally or a coup/revolution will happen

2) Maduro with the backing of military will remove all opposition from power, and Venezuela becomes a one party state.

3) Maduro and his government uses up all it's foreign reserves (mostly in gold) get's loans from China,Russia, and Iran and prays oil raises above $60 dollars by the end of the year.

in any scenario Venezuela is pretty much screwed and it'll be average person who suffer the most.
 
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Venezuela is on the verge of collapse this year. It will not be able to service it's debts while also maintaining it's social spending . Inflation is forecast to be over 700% by the end of this year.

I think there are two or more scenarios that will happen this year


1) Maduro will either be removed from office legally or a coup/revolution will happen

2) Maduro with the backing of military will remove all opposition from power, and Venezuela becomes a one party state.

3) Maduro and his government uses up all it's foreign reserves (mostly in gold) get's loans from China,Russia, and Iran and prays oil raises above $60 dollars by the end of the year.

in any scenario Venezuela is pretty much screwed and it'll be average person who suffer the most.
Guess its the right time to go on a holiday trip to Venezuela!
 
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http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/venezuela-urges-oil-producers-to-cut-output


Venezuela's oil minister will tour OPEC and non-OPEC countries in a bid to drum up support for joint action to stem the tumble in crude prices, President Nicolas Maduro announced on Tuesday night.

"I've given the order to minister Eulogio del Pino for him to immediately start a tour of OPEC and non-OPEC countries," the leftist leader said in a televised broadcast.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is considering a request from cash-strapped Venezuela to hold an emergency meeting to discuss steps to prop up prices, and Venezuela has called for a meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC nations in February.

"We must stop this madness," a solemn-faced Maduro said about oil prices, urging "clear, consequential and coordinated" action.

It was not immediately clear what countries del Pino, who is also the president of state oil company PDVSA, would visit.

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and top non-OPEC producer Russia are showing signs of flexibility about agreeing to tackle an oil glut that has pushed prices to 12-year lows, the oil minister of Iraq said on Tuesday.

OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri said other producers should work with the group to tackle swollen global stockpiles so prices can recover, essentially reiterating OPEC's position that it would consider cutting output only if others pitched in.

Moscow, seen as key to any agreement, has so far refused to cooperate. But Leonid Fedun, vice-president of Lukoil, Russia's second-largest oil producer, was quoted as saying on Monday Moscow needed to start working with OPEC.

Russian state oil pipeline monopoly Transneft said on Wednesday Russia and the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would discuss possible output cuts, TASS news agency reported.

RIA news agency also cited Transneft Chief Executive Nikolai Tokarev as saying a meeting at the Russian Energy Ministry had discussed possible talks with Saudi Arabia on oil.

Senior Russian officials told Reuters earlier on Wednesday Russia's government is not discussing cooperation with OPEC, after a co-owner of Lukoil said Moscow and the exporter group should join forces to battle low oil prices.



this is what like the 4th or 5th time Venezuela has called for OPEC and now Russia to lower the output of oil, and each time the suggestion was shot down.

when are they going to realize they have the short end of the stick. heck a Venezuela collapse would be in the best interest of OPEC. they wouldn't have to cut production and the price of oil would sky rocket with Venezuela default


but for the sake of it say let's OPEC and Russia agree.

they would have to cut 2 mb/d in supply and the lion share would have to come from KSA,Iraq, and Russia for this happen. I don't see any three of them doing this, but I'll say each lowers output by 500,00 so that's 1.5 mb/d the other 500,000 would fall on the rest of OPEC, but wait Iran is going to be pumping an 500,000 to 1 mb/d in the next 6 to 12 months not including all the oil they had stored in tankers in the ocea which is in the tens of millions barrels.


and then you still have a huge supply gut in storage all over the world which I think is 1 billion barrels of oil.

this glut like the one in the 70's and 80's won't go away soon. you are looking at least a year to three for the prices to be high enough for Venezuela to save it's economy.
 
. . . .
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/02/02/will-china-rescue-venezuela/#4cca24407928

China has Venezuela wrapped around it's finger. Not only does Venezuela own China like $20+ billion in oil right now(needs to be restructured), but no doubt they'll need another huge lone in the order of $5 to $20 billion in the near future.


you know this wasn't so bad when oil was selling for $100 on average a year, but oil at $20 to $40 means you gotta ship twice to thrice as amount of oil to pay off these current and future Chinese loans.
 
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Good news for US. One enemy down, who is the next?

Add Russia and Brazil to the list: both of these countries are in deep recession.

It's funny how it's always the US that's predicted to collapse. Not only does this never happen, it's America's enemies that collapse. How ironic.

In the '80s the Soviet union was invincible and would herald the collapse of the US. It was the Soviet Union that ended up collapsing.

In the '90s Japan's economy was unstoppable and would overtake the US. It was the US's economy that ended up flourishing while Japan entered into a 20 year period of economic stagnation.

In the 2000s America was going to run out of oil and this would end its petrodollar hegemony - the BRICS were formed and Iran/Venezuela/others threatened US' interests. Besides China, the BRICS have failed to live up to expectations. Brazil and Russia are in recession. South Africa is no longer even the biggest economy of Africa. India has for most only experienced moderate growth and doesn't look like being a threat for decades if ever.

Oh and now Venezuela is you guessed it on the verge of total collapse, not America, Venezuela. Who could have guessed it :)
 
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Will China Rescue Venezuela?

China has Venezuela wrapped around it's finger. Not only does Venezuela own China like $20+ billion in oil right now(needs to be restructured), but no doubt they'll need another huge lone in the order of $5 to $20 billion in the near future.

you know this wasn't so bad when oil was selling for $100 on average a year, but oil at $20 to $40 means you gotta ship twice to thrice as amount of oil to pay off these current and future Chinese loans.

China also lost a lot for its investment in Canada due to the low oil price.
 
. . .
Add Russia and Brazil to the list: both of these countries are in deep recession.

It's funny how it's always the US that's predicted to collapse. Not only does this never happen, it's America's enemies that collapse. How ironic.

In the '80s the Soviet union was invincible and would herald the collapse of the US. It was the Soviet Union that ended up collapsing.

In the '90s Japan's economy was unstoppable and would overtake the US. It was the US's economy that ended up flourishing while Japan entered into a 20 year period of economic stagnation.

In the 2000s America was going to run out of oil and this would end its petrodollar hegemony - the BRICS were formed and Iran/Venezuela/others threatened US' interests. Besides China, the BRICS have failed to live up to expectations. Brazil and Russia are in recession. South Africa is no longer even the biggest economy of Africa. India has for most only experienced moderate growth and doesn't look like being a threat for decades if ever.

Oh and now Venezuela is you guessed it on the verge of total collapse, not America, Venezuela. Who could have guessed it :)


are you suggesting the U.S had something to do with these countries economic downturns??

you only need to read about why the Soviet Union collapsed, and the reasons for Japan lost decade now going two or even three decades

but what you are suggesting is right. then that means Hugo Chavez was a U.S lackey and his 21st century socialism was meant to destroy Venezuela and region and not to fight against U.S imperialism.

Socialism of the 21st century - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

:rofl::o::rofl::o:


l
 
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