Is this tread even remotely in any shape or form connected to technical know how of semi conductor fabrication. Or in any part I claim to be an expert, semi expert, employee in chip manufacturing process. My knowledge is more than enough for TSMC fab process related to geopolitical topic at hand. Just because you happen to work in some capacity in chip facility doesn’t mean you derail everything into irrelevant stuff to just call people fraud when all you are doing is wasting time.
Here is the deal...
1. A fact is information without emotion.
2. An opinion is information with experience.
3. Ignorance is opinion without information.
4. Stupidity is opinion ignoring fact.
I would put you into 3 and 4.
What do you think you know of semicon enough to make an opinion about the industry relating to geopolical issues? I would guess whatever drivel the PDF Chinese fed you. Those who actually have personal in-depth knowledge and experience, like me, naturally looks at people like you, and your opinions, with jaundiced eyes. You implied that you are knowledgeable enough in category 1 that you expected the readers to take your category 2 seriously. From my experience, you seriously lack 1 which made your 2 incredible, which relegated you into 3 and 4.
Taiwan's value to the US, and the world for that matter, is more than just its semicon industry. Taiwan's independence supports the freedom of the South China Sea, of which international trade relies upon. When you opined that the US would abandon Taiwan once TSMC is secured in the US, that opinion belongs to 3 and 4. When all you have is 3 and 4 to foist upon the lay readers, it is
YOU who are wasting time, specifically their time. The lay readers already invested their time just by reading this thread and in doing so, they expect to have a reasonable return-on-investment (ROI) of their time. When all you have are 3 and 4, you failed them. The unfortunate part here is that many of the readers do not know that frauds like you failed them. That is why people like you are the typical conmen. Successful ones, I will admit. When you implied that you have 1 and 2 but all you have are all 3 and 4, that make you an intellectual conman.
As for me, currently I am in Probe Engineering, specifically process engineering. The Probe dept is the last line of defense prior to customers. From wafer start to my desk, it is about 4-6 months, depending on the product, and literally the entire industry, from tactical to strategic decisions by all companies, rests on that 4-6 months time span. TSMC, Samsung, SMIC, TI, or anyone that have anything to do with a silicon wafer, is burdened with that 4-6 months time span.
So why would this
FACT important in China's war plans against Taiwan? That 4-6 months time span is category 1.
It means, in my opinion, China must attack Taiwan
BEFORE the US, and the rest of the world, is secured with the semicon supply from CONUS. That mean China should attack Taiwan within the next five yrs. It takes about 3-5 yrs to finish a fab, from laying the foundation to installing and qualifying all the tools, then it can take up to 2 yrs for customers to 'engqual' (engineering qualify) any product that come out of the new fab. Once the customer accepts the 'engqual-ed' product, that product is 'commoditized' and can ship as normal.
No one from the PDF Chinese cohort have successfully challenged this
FACT because they have used the appropriate keywords and verified what I said. So if China really really want to hurt the world of our dependency on Taiwan, China should attack Taiwan
BEFORE that 'engqual' period.
Can China attack Taiwan within the next five yrs? Not really. China cannot just lob missiles and not invade. Technically, China can do exactly just that, but then China would have to lob missiles at Taiwan perpetually in order to keep the island crippled. That mean no one would dare travel in the SCS. Global trade would be negatively affected. Prices for everything would rise. Economic sanctions against China would be inevitable. So how long, as in how many
YEARS, can China just lob missiles at Taiwan? China must invade Taiwan. So even if the US does nothing but simply armed the Taiwanese, that is enough to discourage an invasion within the next five yrs. In the meantime, the global semicon supply chain can rest assured that CONUS fabs will be online to offer customers further security. This is my category 2 to offer the readers.
Semicon is now a global strategic interest. It is not too late to build a semicon supply outside of Asia. It could even be argued that the timing is just right because of the pressure upon China to do something, anything, and it looks like options outside of war are getting fewer.
