'US will hand Afghanistan over to Pak'

[fatman17]

'US will hand Afghanistan over to Pak'

Ajai Shukla / New Delhi March 11,2009

On Sunday, US President Barack Obama suggested to The New York Times that hope in Afghanistan lay in reaching out to the “moderate Taliban”. For India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), this is their worst nightmare coming true. After handing the “moderate Taliban” a share of the power in Kabul, say Indian officials, America will pull out troops, allowing the Pakistani army to run Afghanistan on its behalf.

True, the US’ immediate plans are to boost its presence in Afghanistan by another 17,000 soldiers. But that is being seen as a temporary, Iraq-style surge, aimed at putting in place a suitable government before pulling out the forces.

Top Indian policymakers tell Business Standard that the Obama administration’s goal is clear: rather than trying to win the war in Afghanistan, simply aim at bottling terrorism inside the Pakistan-Afghanistan area, and monitor the borders electronically to prevent any “leakage” of jehadis.

An American “virtual cage” is already in place to keep the jehadis inside. Senior Indian officials point out that Pakistan’s immigration network has been entirely computerised with US help. When travellers’ passports are swiped at immigration, the information goes in real time to US intelligence agencies. The Container Security Initiative allows US Customs to monitor every cargo container that passes through a Pakistani port. It is no accident that, since 9/11, not a single terror attack has reached American soil.

What worries Indian policymakers is that none of this protects India. The MEA has discovered, in its engagement with Pakistan over the 26/11 Mumbai terror strikes, that nobody is really in control in that country. Explains a senior official, “Pakistan’s government was ready to sign or say anything that we wanted them to. But having signed, they are completely unable to deliver.”

Even if Islamabad wants to deliver, South Block officials say, the frightening reality is that it can’t. The government cannot rely on its police and investigative agencies; the army has discovered over the preceding year that it does not have the capability to control the tribal areas. And now, the recent attack on Sri Lanka’s cricketers in Lahore heralds a new menace: it is the first time the Lashkar-e-Toiba has struck within Pakistan.

The Lashkar is easily Pakistan’s most formidable radical group. Musharraf cracked down on the Jaish-e-Mohammad in 2002 and 2003, leading to several foiled attempts on his life. But he dared not confront the Lashkar, with its far better organised military, political, civil and financial structure. After 26/11, General Kayani moved against the Lashkar. But he has quickly discovered that even the Pakistani army is unable to put the Lashkar down.

MEA officials say, “The Pakistan army has been badly bloodied in the tribal areas; it is in no state to take on the Lashkar. Today, like a typical military hierarchy in the face of defeat, it has turned inward looking. The Pakistan army does not want to be a part of a big anti-terror push.”

To deal with multiple agencies in Pakistan, which are no longer acting in unison, South Block is coming around to the belief that India needs multiple foreign policies. “We need a different Pakistan policy for the government; a different Pakistan policy for the army; different policies for the political parties, for business, for civil society.”

The unpredictability within Pakistan is multiplied, say Indian officials, by the fragmentation within Pakistan’s radical fringe. During the anti-Soviet jehad in the 1980s and 1990s, Pakistan dealt with just one jehadi leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. In 2005, when negotiating a ceasefire in Waziristan, Pakistan had 17 tribal Shoora (council) chiefs sitting at the table. Now there are dozens of shooras, often with competing demands.

While physically moving out of this snake pit of ‘jehadism’, the US will continue to exercise influence by controlling the Pakistan army, as it has for decades, through the flow of arms and grants. In this, the US has little option; the Pakistan army controls a nuclear arsenal.

 

[TOPGUN]

Very interesting!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

After Sengupta's disclosure on Indian covert action in Pakistan through collaboration with Afghan intelligence and Northern Alliance remnants, I think this is some 'hyperventilating paranoia' on the part of Shukla.

Militarily the primarily NA composed ANA and other Pro-India warlords are strong enough to guard Indian interests in an arrangement that includes the Taliban. Pakistan will not have the resources (I don't see the Saudis being interested unless the Iranians step in) to push for nationwide Taliban control.

In any case, even the last time around Pakistan attempted to get the Taliban leadership to reach some sort of power sharing arrangement with the NA, which was rebuffed by the Taliban. So Pakistan will likely be content with a power sharing arrangement that keeps in mind the interests of all three sides - Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

 

[Omar1984]

India shares no borders with Afghanistan. Why are they always whining?

India is no where near Central Asia. India is south and east of Pakistan.

India shares borders with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Burma...thats its region.

It doesn't make any sense for India to be in Afghanistan in the first place, India should be in Nepal.

 

[SurvivoR]

Indian writer like his countrymen is becoming paranoid over seeing his dreams of gaining foothold in Afghanistan.

Obama has rightly realized you can not exclude the Pashtuns majority from Afghan govenrment and scheme of things.


The writer is spewing same BS about Laskhar striking Lahore whereas FIA already ruled out their involvment rather India is prime suspect in attack on Sri Lankan team in Lahore.


You accept it or not India is not a player in Afghan affairs rather Indians are trying hard to become one.

The real players are Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Get all of these three onboard. Formulate a powering sharing formula acceptable to all the concerned players.

Keep Out India and China from this they are not players in this.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Like it or not, the Indians have cultivated a strong relationship with the NA going back to their Mujahideen days, and they have the money to keep the warlords and politicians loyal to them, so they have to be part of the solution.

 

[ajpirzada]

US should strike a deal with moderate talibans that if they win the elections, they can form a gov and when things will stabalise US will leave. then iran, pakistan and india can directly deal with the afghan gov to establish their foothold there or wateva u wanna call it

 

[Omar1984]

Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan to hold talks

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- The presidents of Pakistan and neighboring Iran and Afghanistan have agreed that their foreign ministers will hold monthly meetings to discuss regional issues, according to a spokesman for Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari.

Zardari, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also decided Tuesday to hold quarterly meetings among themselves to discuss topics including terrorism, trade and development, Zardari spokesman Sarfraz Hussain told CNN.

The three leaders met in Tehran, where they plan to attend a summit Wednesday of the Economic Cooperation Organization -- a group of 10 nations, including Turkey and Kazakhstan, established in 1985.

The agenda and venue for the first foreign ministerial meeting would be announced Wednesday, Hussain said. There was no immediate comment from Iranian or Afghan officials.

Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan to hold talks - CNN.com




The most important players are the immediate neighbors of Afghanistan. Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
India is no where near the region.

 

[Kharian_Beast]

US should strike a deal with moderate talibans that if they win the elections, they can form a gov and when things will stabalise US will leave. then iran, pakistan and india can directly deal with the afghan gov to establish their foothold there or wateva u wanna call it

India should not have any say in these matters, just because they are part of the problem does not mean they are automatically entitled to be a part of the solution. Until India comes public with what they are actually doing in Afghanistan, they should be treated as if they don't even exist there. Pakistan gave a lot to Afghanistan during the Soviet era and was never recognized for helping Afghanistan in any way. India has done nothing and will continue to destabilize the situation from the sidelines.

 

[fatman17]

Like it or not, the Indians have cultivated a strong relationship with the NA going back to their Mujahideen days, and they have the money to keep the warlords and politicians loyal to them, so they have to be part of the solution.

AM, this is a non-starter as far as Pakistan (Army) is concerned!

 

[ajpirzada]

India should not have any say in these matters, just because they are part of the problem does not mean they are automatically entitled to be a part of the solution. Until India comes public with what they are actually doing in Afghanistan, they should be treated as if they don't even exist there. Pakistan gave a lot to Afghanistan during the Soviet era and was never recognized for helping Afghanistan in any way. India has done nothing and will continue to destabilize the situation from the sidelines.

i totally agree with u but wat i said was a more decent way of making sure that india doesnt stay in afghanistan. if taliban come to power, its obvious that pakistan will once again gain influence in afghanistan. all the defence analysts know this and that is y they suspect pakistan for helpin talibans in their war against US led invaders.
otherwise if india has improved her relations with talibans then we cant really do much in stoppin them from gainin influence in our western neighbour.

 

[Omar1984]

i totally agree with u but wat i said was a more decent way of making sure that india doesnt stay in afghanistan. if taliban come to power, its obvious that pakistan will once again gain influence in afghanistan. all the defence analysts know this and that is y they suspect pakistan for helpin talibans in their war against US led invaders.
otherwise if india has improved her relations with talibans then we cant really do much in stoppin them from gainin influence in our western neighbour.

Dont be so sure, we did side with in this war on terror and taliban knows that.

 

[jeypore]

Like it or not, the Indians have cultivated a strong relationship with the NA going back to their Mujahideen days, and they have the money to keep the warlords and politicians loyal to them, so they have to be part of the solution.

Mr. AM, I disagree. After the Soviets left the power vacuum was grabed by the taliban, and northern aliance was push aside. North aliance strenght only came back when Nato planned to attack afganistan. But in this senario, if Nato leaves there will be another power vacuum and taliban will surely grab hold of that and Northern Aliance will be week again. Indian presence will dwindle.

 

[iamunique]

India shares no borders with Afghanistan. Why are they always whining?

Indian writer like his countrymen is becoming paranoid over seeing his dreams of gaining foothold in Afghanistan.

We are whining because for us:

Pakistan running Afghanistan = a BIGGER, BADDER Pakistan!

How can we believe you guys won't use Afghanistan to stir mischief against us (just like you claim likewise)? If you expect us to let you run the show in Afghanistan, we want in as well.

 

[RescueRanger]

'US will hand Afghanistan over to Pak'

Ajai Shukla / New Delhi March 11,2009

On Sunday, US President Barack Obama suggested to The New York Times that hope in Afghanistan lay in reaching out to the “moderate Taliban”. For India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), this is their worst nightmare coming true. After handing the “moderate Taliban” a share of the power in Kabul, say Indian officials, America will pull out troops, allowing the Pakistani army to run Afghanistan on its behalf.

True, the US’ immediate plans are to boost its presence in Afghanistan by another 17,000 soldiers. But that is being seen as a temporary, Iraq-style surge, aimed at putting in place a suitable government before pulling out the forces.

Top Indian policymakers tell Business Standard that the Obama administration’s goal is clear: rather than trying to win the war in Afghanistan, simply aim at bottling terrorism inside the Pakistan-Afghanistan area, and monitor the borders electronically to prevent any “leakage” of jehadis.

An American “virtual cage” is already in place to keep the jehadis inside. Senior Indian officials point out that Pakistan’s immigration network has been entirely computerised with US help. When travellers’ passports are swiped at immigration, the information goes in real time to US intelligence agencies. The Container Security Initiative allows US Customs to monitor every cargo container that passes through a Pakistani port. It is no accident that, since 9/11, not a single terror attack has reached American soil.

What worries Indian policymakers is that none of this protects India. The MEA has discovered, in its engagement with Pakistan over the 26/11 Mumbai terror strikes, that nobody is really in control in that country. Explains a senior official, “Pakistan’s government was ready to sign or say anything that we wanted them to. But having signed, they are completely unable to deliver.”

Even if Islamabad wants to deliver, South Block officials say, the frightening reality is that it can’t. The government cannot rely on its police and investigative agencies; the army has discovered over the preceding year that it does not have the capability to control the tribal areas. And now, the recent attack on Sri Lanka’s cricketers in Lahore heralds a new menace: it is the first time the Lashkar-e-Toiba has struck within Pakistan.

The Lashkar is easily Pakistan’s most formidable radical group. Musharraf cracked down on the Jaish-e-Mohammad in 2002 and 2003, leading to several foiled attempts on his life. But he dared not confront the Lashkar, with its far better organised military, political, civil and financial structure. After 26/11, General Kayani moved against the Lashkar. But he has quickly discovered that even the Pakistani army is unable to put the Lashkar down.

MEA officials say, “The Pakistan army has been badly bloodied in the tribal areas; it is in no state to take on the Lashkar. Today, like a typical military hierarchy in the face of defeat, it has turned inward looking. The Pakistan army does not want to be a part of a big anti-terror push.”

To deal with multiple agencies in Pakistan, which are no longer acting in unison, South Block is coming around to the belief that India needs multiple foreign policies. “We need a different Pakistan policy for the government; a different Pakistan policy for the army; different policies for the political parties, for business, for civil society.”

The unpredictability within Pakistan is multiplied, say Indian officials, by the fragmentation within Pakistan’s radical fringe. During the anti-Soviet jehad in the 1980s and 1990s, Pakistan dealt with just one jehadi leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. In 2005, when negotiating a ceasefire in Waziristan, Pakistan had 17 tribal Shoora (council) chiefs sitting at the table. Now there are dozens of shooras, often with competing demands.

While physically moving out of this snake pit of ‘jehadism’, the US will continue to exercise influence by controlling the Pakistan army, as it has for decades, through the flow of arms and grants. In this, the US has little option; the Pakistan army controls a nuclear arsenal.

Mr. Shukla, needs to relax and take a chill pill... Apart from the fact that he mentions we only dealt with Hikmatyar and misses out figureheads such as Mullah Omar and Sufi Mohammed the First we need to take this article with a big pinch of salt.

I fear that this is another well written peice of tripe, let time decide what happens and who controls what... Lets face it, after India dilly dallied over the IPI GPL it dealt itself a fatal blow as far as central asian influence in concerned.

But like i said, i am going to be very cautious and say "Lets wait and see"...