AgNoStiC MuSliM
ADVISORS
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2007
- Messages
- 25,259
- Reaction score
- 87
- Country
- Location
zhero's on to something and I've been wondering the same.
Civilian gov't is being hung out to dry by your generals. There's evident reluctance to become more aggressive on the ground and little besides prefunctory general endorsements of civilian authority.
I'm really sensing a reluctance by your army to pour itself into this war and wonder if, even now, they believe that the situation can be finessed to salvage some of it's more enduring objectives of policy? These would seem by the wayside if fully engaged, no? At least in the west?
Sooner or later your parliament or our congress or both are going to ask what the hell have you guys been not discussing and not hearing and not writing down between each other?
The rest of us would really like the straight scoop. Too much nod and wink all around.
There is a reluctance to go 'all out', but the way I have read it differs from yours in that we see the civilian government as responsible for that reluctance in the military, among other factors. The GoP has done so by not coming up with concrete and feasible plans for addressing the fall out on the civilian population, even under the existing level of operations. There remains little movement towards engaging the Tribal elders and coming up with a solution set for a 'post-Taliban' environment.
The Army strongly believes that it can use force to wrest the territory away from the militants, but in the absence of plans by the GoP to fill in the vacuum and strengthen the locals such a move will not yield long term dividends It will perpetuate the instability since the local population will continue to suffer and be affected by military ops, and in fact lead to more radicalization as the poverty and suffering of the area is magnified.
The GoP for its part, struggling with an economic crises, may be waiting for the US to figure out whether or not it is going to go ahead with the FATA reconstruction bill, ROZs and other aid. That does not excuse the lack of movement on the political scene, but then again, politics in FATA is likely going to be tied to the availability of funds for development and tangible progress for the various tribes - the elders have to sell this to their people too.
The emphasis on capacity building of the FC is part of this 'local solution'. The Army wants to move to a supporting role, and let the locally recruited FC maintain security as part of whatever political system is established.
The deteriorating situation in Swat currently I believe is connected to the Bajaur operation. There has been a reversal in the momentum that the PA had gathered, and it is not becasue the militants have suddenly become better trained or equipped, or the Army did not feel like fighting, since they pummeled the Swat TTP to the ground in Swat Phase one, and the mood in the army against the insurgency is stronger now than before.
The ANP has also pushed its 'talks with militants' recently through the suggestion of the Swat Shariah bill, and has been in talks with Sufi Mohammed for months now. Any such talks would require a cessation of major operations by the PA.
Swat does not have any relevance to 'Strategic objectives' in that the Swat TTP is led by a local upstart with nothing to do with Afghanistan. Haqqani, Mullah Omar and possibly Hekmatyar would be the ones to fit into that 'strategy', which IMO only exists as a fall back option in case of the US abandoning the region again.
The tensions with India do not help either and obviously the military continues to see India as a major external threat, a view validated by the recent saber rattling by the GoI. The refusal of India to resolve Kashmir will continue to keep the majority of the troops in the East, and therefore not be used in FATA.
So it may be a combination of a lot of factors that have resulted in the situation deteriorating.
On the 'wink wink nod nod ' on air strikes - no political party in Pakistan can afford to be seen endorsing or supporting them, and the unpopularity of the US and her war in Afghanistan also precludes publicity on the cooperation between the two sides.
My 2 cents.
Last edited: