I have not understood how Pakistan will dominate Afghanistan if the US leaves Pakistan.
Like it was apparently dominating Afghanistan before 9/11, & after 9/11 till 2006 before the CIA covert operations inside Pakistan started.
Require more time?
The Northern Route is already operational.
It will take more than 1.5x the time to get supplies through the new route as compared to the direct route through Pakistan. The more feasible option for the US would have been to send it through Iran, but that's not going to happen; which is why it has to take this crazy long route that will deliver supplies 1.5x times later than the current arrangement with Pakistan. This will of course result in limited drone attacks, & the war against the terrorists in Afghanistan would be greatly compromised when the troops in Afghanistan don't get their supplies on time.
Now, be a good chap, do read the IISS report!!
It heralds the things to come and what is already in place!
You haven't even read the report, you just copied & pasted it. Well, I have. Let me give you a few summarized points here:
Shipping vessel speed assumed: 30 knots
Proposed option from the Central Asian countries:
a) Ship supplies to Georgia (Time: 8 days from NY to Georgia)
b) Onland travel from Georgia to Azerbaijan (Time: 4 days . Distance: 4905 km)
c) Ferry from Azerbaijan to Kazakhstan (Time: 1.5 days)
d) Onland travel from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan (Time: 2.5 days. Distance: 3042 km)
e) Onland travel from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan (Time: 2 days. Distance: 915 km -
bad roads)
Total time: 18 days (the least possible time, without including toll time, traffic, broken roads/repairs, political instability, any unforeseen events etc)
Current option with Pakistan:
a) Ship supplies to Karachi, Pakistan (Time: 11 days from NY to Karachi)
b) Onland travel from Karachi to FATA - FATA to Kabul (Time: 1 day)
Total time: 12 days
The Pakistan route is 1.5x quicker than the proposed option.
There are other risks involved as well.
There are a number of major challenges affecting the development of the NDN, especially in light of the fact that demand for its use is projected to increase from 25,000 to 40,000 tonnes per month over the next two years. It relies on poor infrastructure, both along its routes and within Afghanistan, which only has two short railway lines across its northern borders with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. David Sedney, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia has drawn attention to Afghanistan’s poor road links, saying that despite recent construction efforts, ‘the lack of effective entry points [is a] huge limiting factor ... in our ability to deliver supplies throughout Afghanistan’.
DLA Director Vice Admiral Alan Thompson noted in March 2010: ‘one issue we’re working on is a time delay at the border with Uzbekistan that was more than 30 days ... We’re closer to 20 days now, but we still need to reduce it further.’
By the time the supplies even reach the troops in Afghanistan, the terrorists will eat them alive.
Political Challenges & challenges from terrorists:
Some US military strategists fear that as the volume of cargo delivered along the NDN increases, so too will the risk of exporting Afghanistan’s problems into Central Asia. They suggest that bringing Central Asia into the theatre of war could lead to an increased threat of attack by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Islamic Jihad Union, groups that have a loyal following in the restive Fergana valley, which stretches through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. In September 2009, two tankers from Tajikistan delivering fuel to ISAF were hijacked by Taliban insurgents in Kunduz Province in Afghanistan, which borders Tajikistan. After the hijacked trucks stalled while crossing the Kunduz River, German forces called in a US air strike, resulting in dozens of civilian and insurgent casualties. In recent months, there have been several battles between Taliban insurgents in Kunduz Province and US, NATO and Afghan government forces. In January 2010, there was fighting in a small town in Kunduz Province just a few miles from the Tajik border, amid evidence of growing insurgency in the province.