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US Sees India as an Increasingly Weaker Player in South Asia

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US Sees India as an Increasingly Weaker Player in South Asia​

As the US aggressively pushes for accountability, human rights, and fair elections in Bangladesh, the silence of the Indian government demonstrates India’s decreasing stature.

US Sees India as an Increasingly Weaker Player in South Asia

Sheikh Hasina, Anthony Blinken and Narendra Modi. Photos: Twitter/@ArifaRahmanRuma, @SecBlinken, and @narendramodi
Omair Ahmad

Omair Ahmad


DIPLOMACY
SOUTH ASIA
16 HOURS AGO

Ever since the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, announced a new visa policy in Bangladesh on May 24, 2023, it has dominated the political discourse of the country. The core of the policy is that, “the United States will be able to restrict the issuance of visas for any Bangladeshi individual, believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh”.

The Awami League (AL), which has been in power since 2009, has said the new visa policy is aimed at the Bangladeshi Nationalist Party (BNP). But a recent declaration that the AL was willing to sit down with UN mediation, seems to indicate very clearly that the AL is the primary focus of the effort. The visa policy was a personal setback for the Bangladeshi prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, who had been campaigning against the dropping of US sanctions against the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), credibly accused of massive human rights abuses.

The sanctions against the RAB were imposed on December 2021, and led to a significant drop in the numbers of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings. It also led to rising incendiary statements by the Sheikh Hasina government. On May 13 this year, 10 days after the US said it had informed the Bangladesh government of its new visa policy, but 11 days before it was made public, Hasina lashed out, saying, that the country would not buy anything from countries that imposed sanctions.

But the rather quick results, with the AL now making placatory noises about reaching out to the opposition within two weeks of the public revelation of the new visa policy makes it clear that the US policies are working.

The striking thing about all of this is the silence of the Indian government. The AL, and Shiekh Hasina, have gone out of their way to not upset the Indian government in public. This is in spite of serious provocations, such as the Indian home minister, Amit Shah, using crudely dehumanising language, terming “Bangladeshi migrants” as “termites”.

Even the controversial deal to buy high-priced electricity from Adani power was described by one Bangladeshi analyst in the following terms: “Staying with such companies means keeping government alongside and getting their support.”

A weakening of the AL before the coming national elections, projected for the end of this year or early next year, is not necessarily in the BJP’s interests, or even India’s – as the BNP has long been seen as closer to Pakistan than the AL by the Indian government. India (along with China) had rushed to congratulate Hasina on the last election results, despite Transparency International noting problems in 47 out of 50 constituencies.


The US and Europe had reservations about the election results, but this time it seems it has decided to become more pro-actively involved.

In doing so, not only is the US showing that its interests and those of India’s do not exactly align in India’s neighbourhood, but that it is willing to actively insert itself in the region.

We have no idea if India was informed or consulted in any manner. If it was not, that would mean the US sees India as an incidental power in South Asia, and maybe even a barrier to the furtherance of free and fair elections. If the Indian government was informed and consulted, and has kept mum, on both the sanctions on RAB and the new visa policy, it suggests that the government considers itself a secondary actor in its own neighbourhood.

Neither conclusion is a good one. What both point to is the fact that when the US President Joe Biden hosts Narendra Modi for a state visit at the end of the month, there is not even a premise of equal partnership between “the world’s oldest democracy” and “the world’s largest democracy”.

Omair Ahmad is an author and journalist.

 
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US Sees India as an Increasingly Weaker Player in South Asia​

As the US aggressively pushes for accountability, human rights, and fair elections in Bangladesh, the silence of the Indian government demonstrates India’s decreasing stature.

US Sees India as an Increasingly Weaker Player in South Asia

Sheikh Hasina, Anthony Blinken and Narendra Modi. Photos: Twitter/@ArifaRahmanRuma, @SecBlinken, and @narendramodi
Omair Ahmad

Omair Ahmad


DIPLOMACY
SOUTH ASIA
16 HOURS AGO

Ever since the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, announced a new visa policy in Bangladesh on May 24, 2023, it has dominated the political discourse of the country. The core of the policy is that, “the United States will be able to restrict the issuance of visas for any Bangladeshi individual, believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh”.

The Awami League (AL), which has been in power since 2009, has said the new visa policy is aimed at the Bangladeshi Nationalist Party (BNP). But a recent declaration that the AL was willing to sit down with UN mediation, seems to indicate very clearly that the AL is the primary focus of the effort. The visa policy was a personal setback for the Bangladeshi prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, who had been campaigning against the dropping of US sanctions against the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), credibly accused of massive human rights abuses.

The sanctions against the RAB were imposed on December 2021, and led to a significant drop in the numbers of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings. It also led to rising incendiary statements by the Sheikh Hasina government. On May 13 this year, 10 days after the US said it had informed the Bangladesh government of its new visa policy, but 11 days before it was made public, Hasina lashed out, saying, that the country would not buy anything from countries that imposed sanctions.

But the rather quick results, with the AL now making placatory noises about reaching out to the opposition within two weeks of the public revelation of the new visa policy makes it clear that the US policies are working.

The striking thing about all of this is the silence of the Indian government. The AL, and Shiekh Hasina, have gone out of their way to not upset the Indian government in public. This is in spite of serious provocations, such as the Indian home minister, Amit Shah, using crudely dehumanising language, terming “Bangladeshi migrants” as “termites”.

Even the controversial deal to buy high-priced electricity from Adani power was described by one Bangladeshi analyst in the following terms: “Staying with such companies means keeping government alongside and getting their support.”

A weakening of the AL before the coming national elections, projected for the end of this year or early next year, is not necessarily in the BJP’s interests, or even India’s – as the BNP has long been seen as closer to Pakistan than the AL by the Indian government. India (along with China) had rushed to congratulate Hasina on the last election results, despite Transparency International noting problems in 47 out of 50 constituencies.


The US and Europe had reservations about the election results, but this time it seems it has decided to become more pro-actively involved.

In doing so, not only is the US showing that its interests and those of India’s do not exactly align in India’s neighbourhood, but that it is willing to actively insert itself in the region.

We have no idea if India was informed or consulted in any manner. If it was not, that would mean the US sees India as an incidental power in South Asia, and maybe even a barrier to the furtherance of free and fair elections. If the Indian government was informed and consulted, and has kept mum, on both the sanctions on RAB and the new visa policy, it suggests that the government considers itself a secondary actor in its own neighbourhood.

Neither conclusion is a good one. What both point to is the fact that when the US President Joe Biden hosts Narendra Modi for a state visit at the end of the month, there is not even a premise of equal partnership between “the world’s oldest democracy” and “the world’s largest democracy”.

Omair Ahmad is an author and journalist.


modi is incompetent and terrorist like xi

unable/unwilling to implement pro market/pro private enterprise policies

i used to be terrified of modi cuz i thought he would embrace sound economics like deng did and put india on a multi decade path of prosperity

but seems he unable to make it happen

now all he does is terrify his own populace like china, but without the accumulated development that china has from the deng legacy




but in the end the indian people are responsible and modi is good for pakistan and china, just like xi is good for america
 
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modi is incompetent and terrorist like xi

unable/unwilling to implement pro market/pro private enterprise policies

i used to be terrified of modi cuz i thought he would embrace sound economics like deng did and put india on a multi decade path of prosperity

but seems he unable to make it happen

now all he does is terrify his own populace like china, but without the accumulated development that china has from the deng legacy




but in the end the indian people are responsible and modi is good for pakistan and china, just like xi is good for america
India grew at 7.2% this year and 9.1% last year. Our exports grew from $470 billion to $776 billion in the last 2 years. Our forex reserves are back at $600 billion. You must be sleeping under the rock to not notice all this. India's inflation is at 4.5 percent lower than even US and UK. It has never happened before.
 
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India cannot just support Hasina coming back to power in a non-voter midnight election.

India cannot just ploy something that will backfire on its own face. It cannot antagonize BNP on the hope that Hasina will certainly be voted in by the populace.

India’s policy is careful and pragmatic.
 
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America interfering in Bangladesh's internal affairs- Why should India comment?
If you want India to shield you publicly, then you should first publicly accept India as your suzerain state.

& Why did poor Omar forget India is not the only player in the subcontinent? 😉
Whose position gets weakened if BD gives in to some of USofA's demand? Definitely not India!
 
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US Sees India as an Increasingly Weaker Player in South Asia​

As the US aggressively pushes for accountability, human rights, and fair elections in Bangladesh, the silence of the Indian government demonstrates India’s decreasing stature.

US Sees India as an Increasingly Weaker Player in South Asia

Sheikh Hasina, Anthony Blinken and Narendra Modi. Photos: Twitter/@ArifaRahmanRuma, @SecBlinken, and @narendramodi
Omair Ahmad

Omair Ahmad


DIPLOMACY
SOUTH ASIA
16 HOURS AGO

Ever since the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, announced a new visa policy in Bangladesh on May 24, 2023, it has dominated the political discourse of the country. The core of the policy is that, “the United States will be able to restrict the issuance of visas for any Bangladeshi individual, believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh”.

The Awami League (AL), which has been in power since 2009, has said the new visa policy is aimed at the Bangladeshi Nationalist Party (BNP). But a recent declaration that the AL was willing to sit down with UN mediation, seems to indicate very clearly that the AL is the primary focus of the effort. The visa policy was a personal setback for the Bangladeshi prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, who had been campaigning against the dropping of US sanctions against the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), credibly accused of massive human rights abuses.

The sanctions against the RAB were imposed on December 2021, and led to a significant drop in the numbers of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings. It also led to rising incendiary statements by the Sheikh Hasina government. On May 13 this year, 10 days after the US said it had informed the Bangladesh government of its new visa policy, but 11 days before it was made public, Hasina lashed out, saying, that the country would not buy anything from countries that imposed sanctions.

But the rather quick results, with the AL now making placatory noises about reaching out to the opposition within two weeks of the public revelation of the new visa policy makes it clear that the US policies are working.

The striking thing about all of this is the silence of the Indian government. The AL, and Shiekh Hasina, have gone out of their way to not upset the Indian government in public. This is in spite of serious provocations, such as the Indian home minister, Amit Shah, using crudely dehumanising language, terming “Bangladeshi migrants” as “termites”.

Even the controversial deal to buy high-priced electricity from Adani power was described by one Bangladeshi analyst in the following terms: “Staying with such companies means keeping government alongside and getting their support.”

A weakening of the AL before the coming national elections, projected for the end of this year or early next year, is not necessarily in the BJP’s interests, or even India’s – as the BNP has long been seen as closer to Pakistan than the AL by the Indian government. India (along with China) had rushed to congratulate Hasina on the last election results, despite Transparency International noting problems in 47 out of 50 constituencies.


The US and Europe had reservations about the election results, but this time it seems it has decided to become more pro-actively involved.

In doing so, not only is the US showing that its interests and those of India’s do not exactly align in India’s neighbourhood, but that it is willing to actively insert itself in the region.

We have no idea if India was informed or consulted in any manner. If it was not, that would mean the US sees India as an incidental power in South Asia, and maybe even a barrier to the furtherance of free and fair elections. If the Indian government was informed and consulted, and has kept mum, on both the sanctions on RAB and the new visa policy, it suggests that the government considers itself a secondary actor in its own neighbourhood.

Neither conclusion is a good one. What both point to is the fact that when the US President Joe Biden hosts Narendra Modi for a state visit at the end of the month, there is not even a premise of equal partnership between “the world’s oldest democracy” and “the world’s largest democracy”.

Omair Ahmad is an author and journalist.



When bdesh gov was giving extremist fundamentalist and those "actors" that had no interest in it but was stoking or fanning its flames, were getting the dhanda. U.S was applauding and lauding, now U.S is changing its tune.
 
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India cannot just support Hasina coming back to power in a non-voter midnight election.

India cannot just ploy that will backfire on its own face. It cannot antagonize BNP on the hope that Hasina will be voted in by the populace.

India’s policy is careful and pragmatic.
If India was careful and pragmatic, it would not have helped BAL to steal votes in a first place.
 
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If India was careful and pragmatic, it would not have helped BAL to steal votes in a first place.
As far as I have noted when BNP was in power, it antagonized both India and Chins.

BNP wanted a relationship of enmity with India instead of sorting out the bilateral problems through talks.

A time came when India wanted to import gas for its TATA plant. Begum Zia did not check if the available quantity would allow exporting. She demanded $150 million per year for laying pipes over BD. This was uncourteous.

BNP FM Morshed Khan allowed a Taiwanese Trade Office in Dhaka. It is technically an Embassy. It was later cancelled when China protested it strongly.

There are other things that displeased both the two countries. No wonder, both of them support Hasina Bibi even if she kills a million citizens of BD.

I would expect a more pragmatic leader leading the country other than Begum Zia and Tareque.
 
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I would expect a more pragmatic leader leading the country other than Begum Zia and Tareque.
Do we have any alternative to Khaleda Zia and Tareq? The only alternative that I can think of is the army.
 
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India, is not becoming weaker per say, its got a stupid idiot leader. However India does not and will not become U.S lackeys.

In truth the ones with common sense in Indian gov, Does not want to see a full scale regional war.

India does not really want to be the home base of a massive regional war !

The Rhodes ( master races countries,) has medusa's stare on bdesh. Turning up the heat, and giving it sweet poisonous words
 
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As far as I have noted when BNP was in power, it antagonized both India and Chins.

BNP wanted a relationship of enmity with India instead of sorting out the bilateral problems through talks.

A time came when India wanted to import gas for its TATA plant. Begum Zia did not check if the available quantity would allow exporting. She demanded $150 million per year for laying pipes over BD. This was uncourteous.

BNP FM Morshed Khan allowed a Taiwanese Trade Office in Dhaka. It is technically an Embassy. It was later cancelled when China protested it strongly.

There are other things that displeased both the two countries. No wonder, both of them support Hasina Bibi even if she kills a million citizens of BD.

I would expect a more pragmatic leader leading the country other than Begum Zia and Tareque.

I don't think that Taiwanese Trade Office was that big of an issue. Even Myanmar has one.

Rather the foundation of Bangladesh's strategic relations with China was laid during the BNP Govt., especially with the signing of a defense agreement in 2002. BNP even hosted the Burmese President for a state visit and Bangladesh even started building a road through Burma that would connect us with China. This is pretty much unthinkable right now.

BNP made a lot of mistakes but at least their foreign policy and awareness of the geostrategic equations were far better than AL.

From my understanding, China doesn't take sides and they have no preference between AL or BNP. They would rather use their economic influence and can convince any government.
 
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