US scientist predicts China's actual nuclear stockpile is 3600

[fd24]

I am sure that China has its secrets and is more than capeable of protecting itself. But I would never ever trust what americans say they could be right on this occasion but I think they make things up as they go along.

 

[below_freezing]

There is NO real purpose of a nuclear weapon. Its a last resort for if everything else fails.

even a very small nuclear weapon can easily pollute entire mega cities and turn it into a desert. All agriculture is destroyed by radiation and that also hurts food supplies. Not to mention that if a city is attacked by a nuclear weapon, millions will be displaced. All these refugees will have to be re stationed some where and that would cost more resources since land and resource has already become scarcer due to nuke attack.

To cause max damage, a nuclear device should be detonated in the air and not on the surface. It should be in air and perhaps close to rivers or major water supplies to pollute all the water and nearby agricultural lands to make food as scarce as possible. That would cause the greatest damage. Thats why nukes are such a dangerous thing.

If i were to attack USA with nuclear weapons, i wouldnt use a missile etc. I would simply try to smuggle small nuclear devices or try to put together something within USA and detonate near critical areas which supply food/water to the population.
That breaks the economy's back bone...

Nope a nuclear weapon has many uses:

EMPing enemy defenses for a bigger strike.
Destroying major industrial and population centers.
Destroying food supply of a nation if it has a concentrated agricultural belt.
Destroying major ground formations, air bases and naval fleets.
Creating a more favorable environment for your forces to fight in if they have anti-radiation gear.
Changing the global climate to one that favors your forces.

 

[below_freezing]

I might also add that if the US stuck to the principles of its own constitution and heeded the advice of the founders like George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, who called for a small, isolationist, peaceful country composed of small farmers (rather than a sprawling, expansionist global dictatorship) it would have none of the problems that are currently associated with the US.

The US has a nuclear arsenal and military force far disproportionate from what is necessary to defend the US and its current possessions from military attack. Therefore, the only possible use of this nuclear arsenal and military force is for offensive strikes on other nations.

 

[Akasa]

Hold on guys, why are you buying the 3600 figure so easily? Isn't it simply one of the many estimates? And it's made by one guy.

There are a whole lot more sources that say China has 400 warheads.

 

[somebozo]

I have heard about estimates but this scientest has passed all benchmarks of scientefic trolling by introducting "prediction" perhaps the next bet for house of cards should be on?? everyone put their lucky numbers for quanity of chinese nukes..winners get nukes..losers get nuked!

 

[below_freezing]

Hold on guys, why are you buying the 3600 figure so easily? Isn't it simply one of the many estimates? And it's made by one guy.

There are a whole lot more sources that say China has 400 warheads.

The truth is no one knows but you don't need a 3000 km tunnel to hide a few hundred warheads. The few hundred warheads count is based on satellite imagery of known silos and an estimate of the number of road mobile vehicles avaliable (one of the estimates thinks that China put all DF-31 launchers on display at the 2009 parade and left 0 on patrol!)

 

[Martian2]

Hold on guys, why are you buying the 3600 figure so easily? Isn't it simply one of the many estimates? And it's made by one guy.

There are a whole lot more sources that say China has 400 warheads.

Let me ask you a simple question. You have the world's second-largest economy. The United States has threatened to nuke your country since the Korean War in 1953 (e.g. General Douglas MacArthur and President Eisenhower).

The United States stationed nuclear-tipped Nike Hercules missiles on Taiwan for decades and unequivocally stated it will not permit China to reunify with Taiwan by force. President George W. Bush said he will "do 'whatever it took'-including the use of US military forces-to defend Taiwan."

China has repeatedly stated that Taiwan is a core interest. China has enacted a law, which automatically triggers a military invasion if Taiwan declares independence. Given the threats and hostility from the United States and China's unswerving efforts to match U.S. thermonuclear technology and arsenal, are you seriously suggesting China only has 400 warheads?!

In 1967, China exploded her first 3.3-megaton thermonuclear warhead. After 44 years of preparation to fight a thermonuclear war with the United States, who seriously believes China only built 400 nuclear warheads to confront America's 5,000 warheads?

References:

IEER: Energy & Security No. 6 / Science for Democratic Action V6N4 and V7N1: A Chronology of Nuclear Threats

"by ACOFN THREATS - 1998 - Related articles
1953: President Eisenhower secretly threatens to use nuclear weapons against China during the Korean War. 1954: Secretary of State John Foster Dulles ..."

History

"1996 - from Jane's "Taiwan has retired its 40-year-old US-made Nike Hercules surface-to-air missiles which will be replaced with thelocally-developed Tienkung 1 system. The MoD announced it willdeploy three modified air defence systems, due for delivery from theUSA before the end of the year, in the country's eastern district ofNankang." (only Turkey, Greece, Italy and South Korea still active)"

George W. Bush on China

"Do “whatever it takes” to defend Taiwan, including military. Pres. Bush said he would do “whatever it took”-including the use of US military forces-to ... I have defined some sharp disagreements with the Clinton-Gore administration. ... Competitors can find areas of agreement, but we must make it clear to the Chinese that we ..."

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No nuclear limit: China

(Range of China's defensive thermonuclear missiles)

http://www.theage.com.au/world/no-nuclear-...0227-1ba0l.html

"No nuclear limit: China
Philip Dorling
February 28, 2011

HIGH-RANKING Chinese officials have declared that there can be no limit to the expansion of Beijing's nuclear arsenal, amid growing regional fears that it will eventually equal that of the United States, with profound consequences for the strategic balance in Asia.

Records of secret defence consultations between the US and China reveal that US diplomats have repeatedly failed to persuade the rising superpower to be more transparent about its nuclear forces and that Chinese officials privately admit that a desire for military advantage underpins continuing secrecy.

According to US diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks and provided exclusively to The Age, the deputy chief of China's People's Liberation Army General Staff, Ma Xiaotian, told US Defence and State Department officials in June 2008 that the growth of China's nuclear forces was an ''imperative reality'' and there could be "no limit on technical progress''.

Rejecting American calls for China to reveal the size of its nuclear capabilities, Lieutenant-General Ma bluntly declared: ''It is impossible for [China] to change its decades-old way of doing business to become transparent using the US model.''

While claiming in a further July 2009 discussion that Beijing's nuclear posture has "always been defensive'' and that China would "never enter into a nuclear arms race", General Ma acknowledged that, "frankly speaking, there are areas of China's nuclear program that are not very transparent''.

China's assistant foreign minister He Yafei similarly told US officials in June 2008 that there will be an ''inevitable and natural extension'' of Chinese military power and that China ''cannot accept others setting limits on our capabilities''.
...
The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates China has up to 90 intercontinental ballistic missiles (66 land-based and 24 submarine-launched) and more than 400 intermediate range missiles targeting Taiwan and Japan. The US intelligence community predicts that by the mid-2020s, China could double the number of warheads on missiles capable of threatening the US."

 

[no_name]

no need 3600 nukes is enough to reduce any country back into feudal times. its not about the amount of people killed its about the amount of industry destroyed.

It's not about the number of people you fry but the mess they make later on. Think Katrina and the mess it made. And that was something very very small scale compared to an all out nuclear war, which is something we all hope never to happen.

---------- Post added at 12:37 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:36 PM ----------

There no need to point out correctness or incorrectness of this estimation. This is just another round of fishing, hoping to draw some useful official response.

 

[Akasa]

The truth is no one knows but you don't need a 3000 km tunnel to hide a few hundred warheads. The few hundred warheads count is based on satellite imagery of known silos and an estimate of the number of road mobile vehicles avaliable (one of the estimates thinks that China put all DF-31 launchers on display at the 2009 parade and left 0 on patrol!)

The 3000 km tunnel could be for uses other than just storing warheads. Other military equipment and personnel could be stored there in case of an attack. The warheads could also be spread out in case one detonates.

 

[razgriz19]

doesn't US also has a stock pile of around 10,000 nuclear/hydrogen weapons....?

 

[Martian2]

doesn't US also has a stock pile of around 10,000 nuclear/hydrogen weapons....?

About 5,000 are in the inactive reserve/stockpile.

Of the 5,000 that are counted, only approximately 1,800 is active. 3,200 can be made operational quickly. The active number includes tactical nuclear warheads. Under the latest U.S.-Russian treaty, the 1,800 will be brought down to 1,200 over the next few years.

 

[akinkhoo]

warhead and delivery system are different. the 150-400 figure is based on the number of warhead that can be delivered inter-continentally. I would have expected that china have a few hundred cheap warhead in medium range missile meant for a USSR and/or India war that didn't happen. even if they do have more than a 1000 warheads, I do not think China ICBM force has changed much other than in reliability, accuracy and range.

 

[Martian2]

The 3000 km tunnel could be for uses other than just storing warheads. Other military equipment and personnel could be stored there in case of an attack. The warheads could also be spread out in case one detonates.

China’s Underground Great Wall | Flashpoints

"To me, though, the most provocative presentation delivered at our conference related not to the sea but to the future of China’s land-based nuclear arsenal. In March 2008, China’s state-run CCTV network broke the news about a 5,000-kilometre-long network of hardened tunnels built to house the Chinese Second Artillery Corps’s increasingly modern force of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. Tunnelling evidently commenced in 1995. Located in, or rather under, mountainous districts of Hebei Province, in northern China, the facility is reportedly hundreds of meters deep. That makes it an exceptionally hard target against conventional or nuclear counterstrikes. China Defense Daily, a publication of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), confirmed the CCTV account in December 2009.

What should have been a blockbuster story occasioned barely a peep in the Western press, and elicited little response even in Asia. For lack of a catchier metaphor, call it the dragon that never roared. The most prominent outlet to report on what Chinese pundits dubbed the ‘underground Great Wall’ was Chosun Ilbo, in South Korea. The Washington-based Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief covered the story shortly afterward. That was basically it for original reporting. The story isn’t so much that Beijing has constructed hardened sites to safeguard its missile force. An invulnerable second-strike capability has been the gold standard of nuclear deterrence since the early Cold War. In theory, a military able to ride out an enemy first strike with a substantial portion of its missile force intact can deter such an attack. No sane adversary would launch a first strike if it knew its actions would summon forth a cataclysmic reply."

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Regarding the issue of whether China has an adequate number of nuclear ICBMs, I don't believe that this problem has been overlooked by the competent government of China.

1) China has the 5,000 KM "Underground Great Wall." You can hide a lot of ICBMs in a 5,000 KM underground facility.

China's 5,000 KM "Underground Great Wall"

China's "Underground Great Wall" has massive tunnels to accommodate trains carrying nuclear ordnance.

China's "Underground Great Wall" has massive blast doors.

China's "Underground Great Wall" can simultaneously accommodate two trains and can switch tracks.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

warhead and delivery system are different. the 150-400 figure is based on the number of warhead that can be delivered inter-continentally. I would have expected that china have a few hundred cheap warhead in medium range missile meant for a USSR and/or India war that didn't happen. even if they do have more than a 1000 warheads, I do not think China ICBM force has changed much other than in reliability, accuracy and range.

Well, this is only your personal opinion, which is far from the reality.

 

[below_freezing]

warhead and delivery system are different. the 150-400 figure is based on the number of warhead that can be delivered inter-continentally. I would have expected that china have a few hundred cheap warhead in medium range missile meant for a USSR and/or India war that didn't happen. even if they do have more than a 1000 warheads, I do not think China ICBM force has changed much other than in reliability, accuracy and range.

With 400 warheads delivered intercontinentally, I think we can wipe out a population equivalent to 100 of the top US cities.

With an additional 600 IRBMs we can wipe out 80% the population of Japan and South Korea, as well as inflict severe damage to India and Russia's political and industrial centers.

Fk Russia is still #1 in nuclear war winning. They have spread out targets, little valuable targets, and a huge arsenal. It is impossible to beat Russia in nuclear wars.