araz
PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
- Joined
- Jun 14, 2006
- Messages
- 9,291
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I am glad the people that handle diplomacy are not as abrupt as some of the posters on the forum. My comments are general and not directed at you specifically so apologies in advance if you feel this way.In Urdu, we have a proverb کِھسْیانی بِلّی کَھمْبا نوچے
English version: an embarrassed person (country) vents his/her feeling in aggression". American statement reminds them of their shame and blame.. and then suddenly, oh "we'll speak to Pakistan because Pakistan wants so".
View attachment 783196
Please posters need to understand that optics are so important in the game that gets played. Firstly she was shown Pak displeasure by SMQ not coming to see her. She was received by a mid level officer and the message was conveyed. She then had a meeting with SMQ as she had gone visiting. The army chief met her informally in his Shalwar Kameez signifying informality but also lack of support from the top brass to US demands.
Iam not a soothsayer, but directly or indirectly the message has been carried across that we are not happy. Our lines where we will cooperate and where we will not have been communicated clearly as well.
It must be understood that these statements and optics are not a marker for permanent relations but can change depending on who needs what from whom. I think the ball has been firmly placed in the US court as to the level of diplomacy or interest that it will show in patching things up. I do not think Biden will call IK just yet but there may be a secretary of state to SMQ call initiated by the former to break this ice. One the other hand if the US is hellbent on playing the blame game then the current indifference will remain.
So what have we achieved? We have told the US where we are at and what must be done by it to get to where we both need to be. The US can now:
A. Increase pressure on us to comply by direct or indirect means . FATF, IMF or support from tbe Secretary of State to anti Pak bills might be what is done.
The effect will be short to medium term but the outcome will be to push Paklands more staunchly into the China camp.
B. The US might relent slowly from its established position by FO TO FO communication followed by a Biden call at some stage. Other alternates such as Kamala Harris talking to IK, Foreign Secrefary wanting to talk to IK will be tried and possibly gently but firmly denied.
C. The US depending on its need forPakistan might then offer to invest in CPEC along with some other tidbits ignoring mother India. Modi might smart but will recover. Nothing concrete that will hurt aindia will be given.
Option B might be tried in my view although we might see a combo of A+B.
A