US No Longer Has Resources to Start Full-Scale War Against Iran - Prof

[Cthulhu]

I think it's safe to assume that the international community, great powers and rising ones including China, are more tied to America economically and politically than to IRI. They will not go out of their way to help IRI. Even Russia will not come to IRI's aid.
It may be hard for some to believe but "international relations are still based on power" rather than some fantastic notion of international law, "and within the current international system, America is still the dominant power, both economically and militarily". IRI's belief (hope really), including many of her supporters on this forum, that America is on the verge of collapse is just a fantasy. Add to that the fact that IRI's economic mismanagement has put Iran in a seriously dangerous position, given a restless and unhappy population, we will see more anger at IRI spilling into streets (US $ is trading at 7950 in Tehran). Within a short period IRI will be back bartering for goods and services. So someone explain how does America not have the resources to start a war with IRI? Because Trump just fired the first shot. Let's see who blinks first.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/trump-withdraws-us-from-iran-nuclear-deal.557755/page-9#post-10481478

 

[Fafnir]

I am not. If you believe that we made no profits and suffered losses equal to those countries, then I regret to say that you are beyond help.

And what "profits" were those exactly?,if you mean that a handful of well connected capitalist fat cats made a lot of money from the us tax payer by supplying services and weapons to the us forces,well then you are probably right,however if you`re trying to claim that the costs of the invasion and occupation were somehow made good by the economic opportunities,which by the way would`ve gone to the fore mentioned well connected fat cats not the us tax payer,then I think you`re the one thats deluded.In addition the us also had to share these opportunities with the french and russians who agreed in return to forgive billions in saddams debts dating back to his war against iran,and speaking of iran it and it alone was probably the biggest winner in all of this politically,economically,militarily,religiously and I would imagine that for the iranians the most deliciously ironic part of all of this was that it was all thanks once again to the mistakes and misjudgements of the west in the region,the same west that had backed saddam in his war of aggression against iran all thru the 80s.

 

[VEVAK]

I think it's safe to assume that the international community, great powers and rising ones including China, are more tied to America economically and politically than to IRI. They will not go out of their way to help IRI. Even Russia will not come to IRI's aid.
It may be hard for some to believe but "international relations are still based on power" rather than some fantastic notion of international law, "and within the current international system, America is still the dominant power, both economically and militarily". IRI's belief (hope really), including many of her supporters on this forum, that America is on the verge of collapse is just a fantasy. Add to that the fact that IRI's economic mismanagement has put Iran in a seriously dangerous position, given a restless and unhappy population, we will see more anger at IRI spilling into streets (US $ is trading at 7950 in Tehran). Within a short period IRI will be back bartering for goods and services. So someone explain how does America not have the resources to start a war with IRI? Because Trump just fired the first shot. Let's see who blinks first.

I'll just post my previous comment for you to read

I never claimed the U.S. doesn't have the resources to start a war with Iran! Or even achieve a tactical military victory against Iran as they did in Vietnam but that not the same as winning a war and those are completely different than having the resources to overtly or covertly take control and hold the top leadership position in Iran without firing a shot and anyone who thinks U.S. has that capability is DELUSIONAL!

When the U.S. conducted it's Millennial challenge 2002 there problem wasn't having the resources to start a war with Iran their problem was Iran's response and Iran's retaliatory capability are as different as night and day compared to then
AND FYI China and Russia didn't come into the mix in the Millennial Challenge

And China and Russia at the end of the day will always do what is in there own interests and I really can't speak to what their calculation may or may not be but I would put the likelihood of a direct confrontation with the U.S. over Iran at under 0.01%.

 

[WordsMatter]

I'll just post my previous comment for you to read

View attachment 473246

I never claimed the U.S. doesn't have the resources to start a war with Iran! Or even achieve a tactical military victory against Iran as they did in Vietnam but that not the same as winning a war and those are completely different than having the resources to overtly or covertly take control and hold the top leadership position in Iran without firing a shot and anyone who thinks U.S. has that capability is DELUSIONAL!

When the U.S. conducted it's Millennial challenge 2002 there problem wasn't having the resources to start a war with Iran their problem was Iran's response and Iran's retaliatory capability are as different as night and day compared to then
AND FYI China and Russia didn't come into the mix in the Millennial Challenge

And China and Russia at the end of the day will always do what is in there own interests and I really can't speak to what their calculation may or may not be but I would put the likelihood of a direct confrontation with the U.S. over Iran at under 0.01%.

Fair enough... but I do believe the intent of the US is for a regime change, not an all out war with IRI. Also, do you remember Milosovic and the fate of Yugoslavia? The US and NATO did not need to deploy any troops but brought Yugoslavia to her knees through an air campaign, political isolation, and economic asphyxiation. So the US and her allies have many templates at their disposal: Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yugoslavia, just to name a few.
Of the Yugoslavia's, and Iraq's for that matter, 2 levers are already in place in regards to IRI. And the US, with or without NATO or regional allies, can certainly rain hell and fire on IRI. And since IRI has very few friend that will or can come to her aid, I think it's safe to say the US will be the one deciding when she will up the ante.
As for Millennial challenge 2002, do you not think that the US has learned its lessons? I do not believe that the US armed forces are that apathetic to not scrutinize their weaknesses and improve. It just doesn't happen with the US armed forces.

 

[VEVAK]

Fair enough... but I do believe the intent of the US is for a regime change, not an all out war with IRI. Also, do you remember Milosovic and the fate of Yugoslavia? The US and NATO did not need to deploy any troops but brought Yugoslavia to her knees through an air campaign, political isolation, and economic asphyxiation. So the US and her allies have many templates at their disposal: Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yugoslavia, just to name a few.
Of the Yugoslavia's, and Iraq's for that matter, 2 levers are already in place in regards to IRI. And the US, with or without NATO or regional allies, can certainly rain hell and fire on IRI. And since IRI has very few friend that will or can come to her aid, I think it's safe to say the US will be the one deciding when she will up the ante.
As for Millennial challenge 2002, do you not think that the US has learned its lessons? I do not believe that the US armed forces are that apathetic to not scrutinize their weaknesses and improve. It just doesn't happen with the US armed forces.

This U.S. administrations foreign policy advisors are filled with people that attend MKO rallies so that's how disconnected they are with the views of the vast majority of Iranians inside Iran and you got to be utterly delusional to think that Iranians would ever allow anyone affiliated with the MKO to ever govern anything in Iran! Those people will never be allowed to govern so much as a tiny unpopulated Island in Iran and you think ppl that don't have the smarts to comprehend that much have the smarts let alone the capability to start a revolution in Iran?

With Iraq the Iraqi government was at war with Iran between 1980-88 then a few years later yearly U.S. bombings and missile attacks started between 1991-2002 under operation Desert storm, Southern Watch, Northern watch, Desert Fox,... Iraq didn't go a single year without U.S. bombs & missiles falling for a decade until finally an invasion in 2003
And Saddam was a Sunni Arab minority that ruled over and oppressed the majority in a country that only had ~1.5 Million "Sunni Arab men" age 16-60 capable of fighting and a large portion of that human resource had to be used to keep the population in check!

In Libya you had a country of only 6 million people (That's Millions less than the city of Tehran) so it didn't much matter if Qaddafi handed over it's weapons or not
In Yugoslavia again you had a deeply ideologically divided country with 3 million on one side and 7mill on the other and by the most part they were fighting each other without any US involvement

So tell me how do any of those apply to Iran?

 

[zartosht]

The Apple example is a joke. I was pointing out that even Apple is a whole lot richer than Iran.

what exactly is your definition of "rich"?

if I own 10 mansions, and each are worth 1 billion dollars and have 50 million in the bank. does it mean I'm poorer then you if you have 100 million in the bank and own a house ?

iran has gasfields (north pars) /oilfields that are worth more then apple. Iran has state assets and land worth many times apple. Hell iran could just sell some land and make more money then apples worth.

 

[WordsMatter]

This U.S. administrations foreign policy advisors are filled with people that attend MKO rallies so that's how disconnected they are with the views of the vast majority of Iranians inside Iran and you got to be utterly delusional to think that Iranians would ever allow anyone affiliated with the MKO to ever govern anything in Iran! Those people will never be allowed to govern so much as a tiny unpopulated Island in Iran and you think ppl that don't have the smarts to comprehend that much have the smarts let alone the capability to start a revolution in Iran?

With Iraq the Iraqi government was at war with Iran between 1980-88 then a few years later yearly U.S. bombings and missile attacks started between 1991-2002 under operation Desert storm, Southern Watch, Northern watch, Desert Fox,... Iraq didn't go a single year without U.S. bombs & missiles falling for a decade until finally an invasion in 2003
And Saddam was a Sunni Arab minority that ruled over and oppressed the majority in a country that only had ~1.5 Million "Sunni Arab men" age 16-60 capable of fighting and a large portion of that human resource had to be used to keep the population in check!

In Libya you had a country of only 6 million people (That's Millions less than the city of Tehran) so it didn't much matter if Qaddafi handed over it's weapons or not
In Yugoslavia again you had a deeply ideologically divided country with 3 million on one side and 7mill on the other and by the most part they were fighting each other without any US involvement

So tell me how do any of those apply to Iran?

Fine, MKO is a bad choice for Iran and Iranians. I agree with you on that, and have never advocated MKO as an viable alternative.
And the mullahs and their klicks are a Shia minority in Iran who rule over an oppressed majority. A small, albeit a well armed one just like Saddam, the Ghadafis and Assads, who have build a private militia to keep the rest of the population in check! Spend billions of dollars in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon in spite of acute needs at home. A corrupt and indifferent political class whose prime objective is regime survival.
You have a country that will again face the most draconian economic and political sanctions ever imposed on a country. It was the very same sanctions that brought IRI to the negotiating table to begin with, and to her knees, whether you like to hear that or not. And TBH, it really doesn't matter what the EU, Russia, or China say about the US's move. They will all fall in line as soon as their economic interests in the US are threatened. We have seen this play out over and over again.
Iran is an ethnic melting pot. How hard do you think is to light a fire under the disenfranchised and disillusioned people? I am betting perhaps in the range of $25-50 billion, a rounding error when it comes to US.

 

[randomradio]

what exactly is your definition of "rich"?

if I own 10 mansions, and each are worth 1 billion dollars and have 50 million in the bank. does it mean I'm poorer then you if you have 100 million in the bank and own a house ?

iran has gasfields (north pars) /oilfields that are worth more then apple. Iran has state assets and land worth many times apple. Hell iran could just sell some land and make more money then apples worth.

Assets are worthless if you don't have buyers. And no, you underestimate Apple's assets with yours.

Anyway, I bought it up as a joke. The fact that you are comparing all your natural reserves with a smartphone company proves the difference in wealth.

 

[Tokhme khar]

wealth makes no difference in war joker. Afghani savages on horse back busted you hendi in the aas a 100 times when you were the wealthiest on this planet! lol

You forgot that?

same is happening in Syria today.....A smart and resourceful Iran occupies 90% of Syria, against the best the West can throw at it.

Assets are worthless if you don't have buyers. And no, you underestimate Apple's assets with yours.

Anyway, I bought it up as a joke. The fact that you are comparing all your natural reserves with a smartphone company proves the difference in wealth.

sorry to totally burst your bubble, but China disagrees with your logic:

https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201805121064374251-iran-us-china/

Fine, MKO is a bad choice for Iran and Iranians. I agree with you on that, and have never advocated MKO as an viable alternative.
And the mullahs and their klicks are a Shia minority in Iran who rule over an oppressed majority. A small, albeit a well armed one just like Saddam, the Ghadafis and Assads, who have build a private militia to keep the rest of the population in check! Spend billions of dollars in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon in spite of acute needs at home. A corrupt and indifferent political class whose prime objective is regime survival.
You have a country that will again face the most draconian economic and political sanctions ever imposed on a country. It was the very same sanctions that brought IRI to the negotiating table to begin with, and to her knees, whether you like to hear that or not. And TBH, it really doesn't matter what the EU, Russia, or China say about the US's move. They will all fall in line as soon as their economic interests in the US are threatened. We have seen this play out over and over again.
Iran is an ethnic melting pot. How hard do you think is to light a fire under the disenfranchised and disillusioned people? I am betting perhaps in the range of $25-50 billion, a rounding error when it comes to US.

 

[LeGenD]

Typical Iranian bluster. I am not sure how under-estimating your adversary is helpful to Iranian cause. Perhaps such self-assurance helps some to sleep better at night.

 

[VEVAK]

Fine, MKO is a bad choice for Iran and Iranians. I agree with you on that, and have never advocated MKO as an viable alternative.
And the mullahs and their klicks are a Shia minority in Iran who rule over an oppressed majority. A small, albeit a well armed one just like Saddam, the Ghadafis and Assads, who have build a private militia to keep the rest of the population in check! Spend billions of dollars in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon in spite of acute needs at home. A corrupt and indifferent political class whose prime objective is regime survival.
You have a country that will again face the most draconian economic and political sanctions ever imposed on a country. It was the very same sanctions that brought IRI to the negotiating table to begin with, and to her knees, whether you like to hear that or not. And TBH, it really doesn't matter what the EU, Russia, or China say about the US's move. They will all fall in line as soon as their economic interests in the US are threatened. We have seen this play out over and over again.
Iran is an ethnic melting pot. How hard do you think is to light a fire under the disenfranchised and disillusioned people? I am betting perhaps in the range of $25-50 billion, a rounding error when it comes to US.

My point wasn't whether the MKO is a good or bad choice my point was that people in this administration and the top brass that want to bring regime change don't even have the smarts to realize that the MKO is not only a bad choice but public relations with them would be counterintuitive to anyone that has dreams of regime change in Iran!

Shiite minority??? What world are you living in?? Don't confuse Iranians living inside Iran with Iranians living in L.A.!!!!!!!!!

In this fantasy world that your live in does the Iranian government also go out with sticks and stones to force people to sand in line for hours to vote election after election???
How many 60%-70% voter turnouts do you people need to weak the hell up?

As for Iran's defense spending, today Iran spends less than the UAE on it's military so only an uninformed idiot would take issue with the Iranian governments defense spending so again utter nonsense!

 

[WordsMatter]

My point wasn't whether the MKO is a good or bad choice my point was that people in this administration and the top brass that want to bring regime change don't even have the smarts to realize that the MKO is not only a bad choice but public relations with them would be counterintuitive to anyone that has dreams of regime change in Iran!

Shiite minority??? What world are you living in?? Don't confuse Iranians living inside Iran with Iranians living in L.A.!!!!!!!!!

In this fantasy world that your live in does the Iranian government also go out with sticks and stones to force people to sand in line for hours to vote election after election???
How many 60%-70% voter turnouts do you people need to weak the hell up?

As for Iran's defense spending, today Iran spends less than the UAE on it's military so only an uninformed idiot would take issue with the Iranian governments defense spending so again utter nonsense!

Glad we have reached name calling and insult stage... You must be reaching the end of your wits.
Yep tyrants and tyrannies always have 90+% participation rates, because there is so much freedom of information and ngos... BFD.

 

[VEVAK]

Glad we have reached name calling and insult stage... You must be reaching the end of your wits.
Yep tyrants and tyrannies always have 90+% participation rates, because there is so much freedom of information and ngos... BFD.

ANYONE that complains about Iran spending too much on it's' military is clearly uninformed and if they are Iranian then they are absolute idiots that don't have the slightest clue! And that is a FACT! Now if you wanna take that as an insult to yourself that's your problem but it still doesn't change the fact that Iran spends less on it's military than Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq, Israel and even the UAE despite the fact that it's directly being threatened by the worlds sole superpower and it's regional puppet states.

As for Iran's elections it's quite clear your in denial. There are various international organizations including American organizations that monitor Iran's elections and do you know why none of them make these absurd claims that you do? Because it nonsense and far from reality! Even the US propaganda machine that broadcasts inside Iran don't make such absurd claims and do you know why? Because people would laugh at them and call them delusional. So instead they try to persuade Iranians not to vote election after election.

And your not just in denial, you live in a fantasy world where Shia Muslims are a minority in Iran. I'm sorry man but how is that not delusional? I willing to bet if you were to spend one Ashura in Iran and one presidential election in Iran and you were truly willing to see truth, it would go a long way to help you get out of this fantasy world you got yourself stuck in where Iranians are Atheist, Agnostics & Christians who never vote and are being oppressed by a Shia minority group that spends all of Iran's wealth on the Military.