US moves to harness India to anti-China “pivot”

[jhungary]

You can be assured we do not want any part of the power struggle between either US or China. And till date, we have not allied with anybody. Our current problems are internal. We need infrastructure, jobs and economic prosperity. For this, we will work with everybody who will invest and reap benefits of the same. Be that US, China, Israel, Saudi or Japan.

My post was more to tell the Chinese, that, because we work with the Americans does not make us anti-Chinese or in the US camp. Why do I say this? The LSA is a given. It may be edited and a few chinks removed. But it will happen between the US and India. About the other 2, I am not so sure.

About a flare up in the South China Sea. We are neither present there, nor do we have force projection capability for the same. When have you ever seen India take any active part in a military operation, except if it was in Maldives or Sri Lanka. Our foreign policy is to issue vague statements. Not take sides. No troops unless UN asks us to. Hell, you will not find us getting involved even if you go to war with Pakistan. We will be in the sidelines saying, refugee mess.

That's exactly what I said........

I don't understand why people keep insinuating that US is cooking up some sort of relationship with India to begin with........If in anyway, India present in SCS will only complicate the situation in SCS and not going to goes in US favour.

If there are indeed relationship being cooking up between US and India, it would be a economic relationship as well as some cooperation between US and Indian militarily, hack, we even had a working military relationship with Russia before it all went down the drain with Ukraine.

I guess some people here don't really understand how geopolitics works eh

 

[Dungeness]

Most Indian strategic thinkers look at China as a threat only so far as the border dispute is solved. Is there a threat perception? Yes, there is. The fear is tomorrow there could be a two front war, where China gets pulled in when there is a conflict with Pakistan.

It is in the strategic interests of China to have a route to the Middle East. What you tend to forget is, if the border dispute is resolved, where we settle that Aksai Chin is part of China and Arunachal Pradesh is part of India, you demarcate the rest and move on. This is one border you will not have a problem with. The Tibetans will not be allowed to wage war against the Chinese state, that is a given. This is a safe border and you concentrate on dealing with the problems on the eastern and southern borders.

You will, now, have no worry in your complete western flank. You will also have a route right through India to both Kolkata and Gujarat/Mumbai. Chinese are being invited to lay down infrastructure. And none of this will need to be provided free. They will be paid for. You have good relations with the Russians, Iranians and Saudis. So do we. Hell, we have good relations even with the Israelis. Trade between our two countries is not going to slow down.

Also, understand Indians do not trust the Americans. Hell, we never fully trusted the Russians or French and they are the closest to what we call ally. Coming to the topic of the South China Sea, Indian interests is in ensuring our economic interests in that area are protected and our ships are allowed to pass through without problems.

Will we conduct exercises with the USN, JMDF and RAN? Yes, why not? Have we entered into any military alliances till day? Yes. Only 1. With Oman and that is not a threat to you. Understand this. Your western flank is the least of your worries. We prefer doing business with the Chinese, rather than get into a ruckus.

@Nihonjin1051 @TaiShang @Chinese-Dragon

Great post. Thanks.

The suggestion to solve the border issue was offered to India in 1960, but it was turned down by your Nehru administration. In contrast to 1960s, the border issue is well Chinese public. With today's Chinese internet landscape which is very nationalistic and very critical to the government, it will be very hard for the current government to solve the border issue with the same term without risking its legitimacy. So it will be some time before the issue gets resolved.

The issue in hand is how India and China can deal with each other before the border issue gets resolved.

 

[Lokanath]

Great post. Thanks.

The suggestion to solve the border issue was offered to India in 1960, but it was turned down by your Nehru administration. In contrast to 1960s, the border issue is well Chinese public. With today's Chinese internet landscape which is very nationalistic and very critical to the government, it will be very hard for the current government to solve the border issue with the same term without risking its legitimacy. So it will be some time before the issue gets resolved.

The issue in hand is how India and China can deal with each other before the border issue gets resolved.

Its pointless to spin yarn about 1960. China was aggressive and Nehru was a fool. It was a bad combination and it could have only ended one way and it did.

Today China has little interest in resolving the border issue but India has far greater interest to put that to rest.

The most logical action would then be for India to escalate its face off with China till the point where China cannot ignore this issue anymore and will sue for a legitimate solution. China's internal problems is not India's concern.

If China wishes to secure its strategic interests it would be logical to settle the border with India. Without that its only a matter of time before India picks a side against China and it is unlikely that India will grow weaker in days to come.

Wishful thinking is not reality.

 

[Jamwal's]

Against someone IS what military alliance is for. That is why your founding father had a non-alliance policy to begin with.




Here we go. It is "all your fault" type of game. At least you are honest.

Even a million + military can't afford a 2 front war,we should keep our options open and relax India is not going to rent the Andaman island for US Navy.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

It would be pretty difficult to have close military relations with all those countries but not the United States as America has long standing defence pacts and deep military ties, with all of them.

Improvement of defence ties with USA is dependent on Republican victory in the coming elections.

 

[Desertfalcon]

Improvement of defence ties with USA is dependent on Republican victory in the coming elections.

I agree. Those ties have existed for many years regardless of which party is in power in the US.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Most Indian strategic thinkers look at China as a threat only so far as the border dispute is solved. Is there a threat perception? Yes, there is. The fear is tomorrow there could be a two front war, where China gets pulled in when there is a conflict with Pakistan.

It is in the strategic interests of China to have a route to the Middle East. What you tend to forget is, if the border dispute is resolved, where we settle that Aksai Chin is part of China and Arunachal Pradesh is part of India, you demarcate the rest and move on. This is one border you will not have a problem with. The Tibetans will not be allowed to wage war against the Chinese state, that is a given. This is a safe border and you concentrate on dealing with the problems on the eastern and southern borders.

You will, now, have no worry in your complete western flank. You will also have a route right through India to both Kolkata and Gujarat/Mumbai. Chinese are being invited to lay down infrastructure. And none of this will need to be provided free. They will be paid for. You have good relations with the Russians, Iranians and Saudis. So do we. Hell, we have good relations even with the Israelis. Trade between our two countries is not going to slow down.

Also, understand Indians do not trust the Americans. Hell, we never fully trusted the Russians or French and they are the closest to what we call ally. Coming to the topic of the South China Sea, Indian interests is in ensuring our economic interests in that area are protected and our ships are allowed to pass through without problems.

Will we conduct exercises with the USN, JMDF and RAN? Yes, why not? Have we entered into any military alliances till day? Yes. Only 1. With Oman and that is not a threat to you. Understand this. Your western flank is the least of your worries. We prefer doing business with the Chinese, rather than get into a ruckus.

@Nihonjin1051 @TaiShang @Chinese-Dragon

The strategic thinkers you refer to possibly had these thought prior to 1962 or during cold war, but certainly not for 21st century.

Every Indian Strategic thinker makes a reference to Chinese plans in the IO region. Not surprisingly we recently have tri-service command established in Andaman Nicobar Islands.

Any attempts for peace overture towards Chinese in the past have resulted in Chinese exploiting them at India's cost.

Current Indian Govt has realised this and not surprisingly all initial state visits of Modi has been nations surrounding China, one of those even including the small island nation of Fiji.

Indian trust of Americans certainly has its reservations, but a majority of military equipment addressing China are of American origin from M777 howitzer to P-8s.

Strong ties with Americans is long overdue.

Indians are certainly not comfortable in taking a stance in SCS. But if India does not take a stance in SCS today, we will have to take a much more defensive stance in IO tomorrow.

Lastly, here is what most significant strategic thinker of current day has to say about China.

 

[surya kiran]

@Syama Ayas which is why I said, IF the border is settled.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

I agree. Those ties have existed for many years regardless of which party is in power in the US.

Not necessarily

During Korean war, USA considered India a "Communist Appeaser"

During the cold war, USA considered India of little significance even in the event of a communist takeover of India.

Modern day improvement in ties can be best seen with Next Steps in Strategic Partnership, NSG waivers, Replacing Russia as largest weapon supplier, Malabar exercises, Quadrilateral strategic dialogue and considerations to sign LSA, to name a few.

Each of these above has happened at a faster pace under Republicans.

 

[SrNair]

That will be THE excuse Xi has been waiting for.

And Xi will remain waiting in there ,even in future .
On topic:There is no permanent friends or foes ,only permanent interests .US has their own interests and we have our own interests .
CPEC in Azad Kashmir was Chinese move ,so this is our move.

For USN, the question is not whether or not India will be an ally for US, but rather will India remain neutral in the power struggle between US and China in the West Pacific.

The problem is, we don't need to ally with anyone else in order to pivot our concern in Asia. We have quite a lot of traditional allies and their support will be more than enough. The question, however, more focus on how India would react shall US increase hostilities with China in the South China Seas?

Traditional wisdom suggest that the US only need India to control their own part of the Indian Ocean, you don't need to let US use any of your facilities, as long as you don't allow China to do so as well. The Objective for US is and always is to have India stay neutral in all this, and if we are going to develop a relationship over it, fine, if not? That's okay too.

Do remember the US pivot to Asia concern the first and second Island chain, which there are traditionally no IN present, so, if this is the case, why would US wanted to Allies with India if there were not much IN present in that area to begin with??

Funny .What a BS statement ?
Allowing Chinese in our facility ??really??


India will only cares her own interest.We will remain neutral and keep expands our IN and other forces .Dont need to worry about IOR.Chinese still need at least two decades to seriously project their power in IOR.Even at the current pace we will have atleast 3 CBGs and dozens of subs at that time

 

[Desertfalcon]

Not necessarily

During Korean war, USA considered India a "Communist Appeaser"

You misunderstood me. I wasn't referring to US-Indian ties. I was referring to US-South Korean/Japanese/Australian, etc., ties.

 

[kadamba-warrior]

Hypocritical. I don't think you believe what you wrote.

When you prop the despotic regimes that are arch rivals to India (and other countries), provide them with not just nuclear weapons but also missiles to deliver, that's pious? Or when you veto down any UN resolutions against even the terrorist groups and their handlers that specifically target India, is that pious?

@Topic: The problem between India and China is not just about disputed borders! It might have started as a border dispute but it is much more than that now. It is about 2 humongous and resource-hungry nations competing for the same resources and same markets! Thinking from Chinese POV, the last thing the Chinese regime wants is a settled border with India that will enable India to focus her meager resources towards her own economic upliftment thereby challenging China in their own game.

The Chinese would like to keep the proverbial pot boiling at the long and treacherous Indian border. Little surprise that there will not be any solution to the border dispute anytime soon!

 

[Bad Guy]

Even at the current pace we will have atleast 3 CBGs and dozens of subs at that time

In next 20 years?
35-40 subs and 4-5 CBGs. Navy has already opened plan for 4th Carrier.

 

[surya kiran]

@Syama Ayas @jhungary watch from 17 to 23

 

[Lokanath]

When you prop the despotic regimes that are arch rivals to India (and other countries), provide them with not just nuclear weapons but also missiles to deliver, that's pious? Or when you veto down any UN resolutions against even the terrorist groups and their handlers that specifically target India, is that pious?

@Topic: The problem between India and China is not just about disputed borders! It might have started as a border dispute but it is much more than that now. It is about 2 humongous and resource-hungry nations competing for the same resources and same markets! Thinking from Chinese POV, the last thing the Chinese regime wants is a settled border with India that will enable India to focus her meager resources towards her own economic upliftment thereby challenging China in their own game.

The Chinese would like to keep the proverbial pot boiling at the long and treacherous Indian border. Little surprise that there will not be any solution to the border dispute anytime soon!

Its rather obvious that China has consistently worked to undermine our interests. But they have also followed a policy of not interfering directly in our affairs and THAT is to be applauded. Both India and China strictly followed the Panchasheel policies.

The same is NOT true for US, UK or Russia. So by those parameters China is more trustworthy.

The whole world is competing for resources and China is not exception. Its absurd to hold that out against them. This POV can be safely discarded.

China does not settle the border dispute with India for the same reason India does not settle the dispute with Pakistan. There is NO Compelling reason to do so. They status quo works in our respective favour.

India has bartered away our bargaining chips cheaply with China, so we now have to gain / earn some new chips to start negotiation in earnest and settle matters. Otherwise it would be as foolish as expecting the Chinese to be "charitable" to our POV.

So the priority for India is to have a few new chips before the negotiations start and US can help us get those chips.

So the path is set and will play out the only way it can. For better or for worse.