US Hopes Robo-Ships Can Outwit China’s Superior Naval Numbers

[JeremyVickers]

The United States is wagering on hundreds of robotic warships to counter China’s overwhelming shipbuilding capacity. Designed by the US Navy, the USX-1 Defiant is an unmanned surface vessel (USV) and an essential milestone towards expanding an autonomous fleet, a much cheaper method to extend that naval power. But themainstream robowarship solution is already in doubt, especially given that fleet numbers have tended to be more decisive than flashy toys in actual naval engagements.

The release of the USX-1 Defiant this month has reignited disputes about the future of naval warfare. Operated by Serco, a contractor who works on autonomous maritime technology, the vessel is a part of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) initiative No Manning Required Ship (NOMARS). The launch of the Defiant at Nichols Brothers Boat Builders is the Pentagon’s latest move to insert autonomous warships into the wars of the future.

What is the USX-1 Defiant?​

The USX-1 Defiant is a 180, 240 ton unmanned vessel that can operate entirely without any crewmembers on board. Unlike other unmanned ships like the Nomad and Ranger, which have been backfitted with autonomous systems, the Defiant was designed from day one with no human-oriented features whatsoever.

This design choice greatly improves cost efficiency, endurance, and operational reliability. The design axed crew quarters, life-support systems and other traditional ship characteristics, enabling a larger payload capacity and longer mission duration.

The vessel features DARPA’s advanced hydrodynamic and stealth technologies that promise to enhance fuel efficiency, maneuverability and survivability. A distinctive feature of it is infection refueling capability which has been tested in earlier demonstrations successfully.

How the USX-1 Defiant Will Fit Into U.S. Naval Strategy​

The proliferation of warships is part of an effort to counter China’s naval expansion, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, where naval competition has been most intense. China already enjoys considerable momentum in shipbuilding capacity, quickly developing its fleet at a rate that is not sustainable for the U.S. through traditional means.

The aspiration is to augment with large salvos of affordable vessels with none of the overhead that comes with expanding, and housing personnel, by investing in USVs. But according to Ryan Maatta, Serco’s Marine Engineer Manager, what the Defiant has going for it is its scalability and affordability — something that could break previous cost barriers associated with unmanned naval systems.

In potential conflicts—be it a Taiwan Strait crisis or South China Sea confrontation—autonomous ships could play multiple roles, including:

• Surveillance and reconnaissance
• Electronic warfare and the jamming of enemy communications
• Surface and anti-submarine warfare support
• Decoys for disrupting enemy guidance systems

The sea-based roles fit the Pentagon’s vision of a hybrid fleet, where unmanned and crewed ships operate alongside each other to reduce the risk to human sailors while maintaining military capabilities.

Benefits of Remote-Controlled Warships​

Unmanned surface vessels (USVs) are a game changer in naval warfare, offering multiple advantages such as:

• Cost-Effectiveness: Conventional warships can cost billions to built and maintain, but autonomous craft such as the Defiant cost dramatically less. This allows for the mass production without blowing the defense budget.
• Scalability: Since USVs do not need onboard human personnel, they can be designed and operated in larger quantities compared to conventional warships. What this has demonstrated with respect to swarm warfare was effectively seen in Ukraine’s use of its unmanned sea drones against Russian warships.
• Stealth and Endurance: The Defiant's low profile, advanced stealth design, and absence of crew-related maintenance requirements would allow it to remain undetected for extended periods, enabling it to be an effective intelligence-gathering and strike platform.
• AI-Powered Combat Operations: Cutting-edge AI systems empower autonomous vessels to execute evasive maneuvers, precision strikes, and even group tactics with other USVs.

Autonomous War fighters: Challenges and Risks​

But even though these USVs have clear advantages, both the Defiant and other similar vessels will face significant challenges on the battlefield that could limit their utility in high-intensity combat.

Vulnerabilities to Cyber Warfare:​

Autonomous warships are exceptionally reliant on A.I. and networked systems, making them tempting targets for cyberattacks. A compromised USV could be commandeered, disabled, or used against its own flotilla. China, Russia and other adversaries possess advanced cyber capabilities that could take advantage of these vulnerabilities.

Mechanical Reliability Concerns:​

The relentless maritime environment hastens wear and tear on ships. Unmanned ships might experience regular mechanical issues, particularly on long missions, without human crews available to perform repairs in real time.

Little Room for Decision-Making in Combat:​

AI systems may be able to respond quickly to threats, but they lack human instincts. A complex battle with ambiguous parameters — lots of moving parts — would leave these vessels floundering, as human reasoning was forced to adapt speedily to surprise enemy maneuvers.

Legal and Ethical Concerns:​

Fully autonomous warships pose challenges of accountability in the context of warfare in terms of ethics and legality. If a USV incorrectly fires upon a civilian vessel or breaches international maritime law, who bears the responsibility? These doubts may constrain the broad adoption of such systems.

Are USVs Going To Be Sufficient to Counter China?​

The Defiant and other unmanned warships are a promising step in an effort to modernize the U.S. naval forces, but they fall short of addressing the Chinese military’s overwhelming numerical advantage.

Historically, the size of a fleet was the decisive factor in naval dominance. Of course, new technology can supplement combat capabilities, but it cannot make up for a smaller fleet entirely. China’s massive People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is growing at an unprecedented rate, with estimates ranging upwards of 400 warships by 2030.

America has about 300 warships now, and even integrating USVs, submarines and aircraft carriers, numbers favor China. In a Taiwan conflict or South China Sea confrontation, the U.S. Navy would find it more difficult to match the quantity of China’s ships, missiles and combat-ready assets.

Furthermore, China is making major investments into its own unmanned naval systems, so the U.S. may find itself facing AI-powered warships on both sides of a given conflict in the near future.