US Economy and News

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US economy grew 2.7% in third quarter, faster than expected


WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy grew at a 2.7-percent pace in the third quarter, faster than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said Thursday in a report that nevertheless pointed to a weaker fourth quarter.

Gross domestic product growth was revised upward from the prior estimate of 2 percent, reflecting in part increases in federal government spending and private inventory investment, the department said.

Growth in the July-September quarter was the strongest of the year, and followed a meager 1.3-percent pace in the second quarter.

Still, growth remained modest as the world's largest economy headed into the fourth quarter.

“This morning's GDP report is one of those rare instances when growth is a lot stronger than in the advance report but the domestic economy turns out to be a lot weaker,” said Chris Low at FTN Financial.

Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of output, was revised down to 1.4 percent, just slightly above the second-quarter pace.

Inflation slowed slightly from the second quarter. Prices rose 1.4 percent in the third quarter and the core price index, excluding food and energy prices, increased 1.1 percent.

Sal Guatieri at BMO Capital Markets said the weaker momentum in consumer and business spending and a jump in business inventories suggested a slower pace in the fourth quarter.

“Outside of the housing market recovery, the economy has little momentum as we edge closer to the year-end fiscal cliff,” he said.

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday reported that businesses around the country are increasingly worried about the combination of significant spending cuts and tax increases that will occur in January unless politicians reach a compromise on a less severe deficit reduction plan.

Manufacturers said they were worried about the economy in 2013 “in part due to the uncertainty regarding the outcome of the fiscal cliff,” the Fed said in its Beige Book survey of regional economies.

Economists say the US$500 billion amalgam of tax hikes and spending cuts required by last year's debt-ceiling deal could pitch the U.S. economy back into recession in 2013.

Applications for US Jobless Aid Fall to 393,000

The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 393,000 last week. It was the second straight drop after Superstorm Sandy had driven applications much higher earlier this month.

A Labor Department analyst said Thursday that the storm had little effect on last week's data. Applications had spiked to 451,000 three weeks ago after Sandy battered the East Coast, closing businesses in the Northeast and cutting off power to 8 million homes in 10 states.

People can claim unemployment benefits if their workplaces are forced to close and they aren't paid.

The four-week average of applications, a less volatile measure, rose to 405,250 last week. That figure has been elevated by the storm.

Superstorm Sandy made landfall on Oct. 29. The government reported last week that the storm caused benefit applications to jump by 75,000 in just New York and New Jersey in the week that ended Nov. 10. Applications also rose in Connecticut in Pennsylvania because of Sandy.

Before the storm, weekly applications had fluctuated this year between 360,000 and 390,000. Meanwhile, employers have added an average of nearly 157,000 jobs a month. That's barely enough to lower the unemployment rate, which was 7.9 percent in October.

US economy grew 2.7% in third quarter, faster than expected - The China Post

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US consumer confidence hits highest point in over 4 years


WASHINGTON -- U.S. consumer confidence rose this month to its highest level in almost five years, helped by a better outlook for hiring over the next six months.

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 73.7 in November from 73.1 in October. Both are the best readings since February 2008.

The index is still below the level of 90 that is consistent with a healthy economy. It last reached that point in December 2007, the first month of the Great Recession. But the index has increased from the all-time low of 25.3 touched in February 2009.

continue: http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/americas/2012/11/29/362485/US-consumer.htm

 

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US Consumer Confidence trend

The 4 year moving average is definitely moving up

 

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Only three major U.S. cities see economic recovery: study

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvanian

Knoxville, Tennessee

Dallas, Texas

(Reuters) - Retailers moving into old downtown buildings, an abundance of freshly planted greenspaces, and a stream of new jobs in Knoxville, Tennessee, are all signs to Mayor Madeline Rogero that for the last year prosperity has been blooming in her city.

"We feel very good about how we're coming out of this recession," Rogero said. "We see new interest. We see new development that's occurring. We're optimistic that this recovery is going to continue."

Knoxville is a member of a very small club. Three and a half years since the 2007-09 economic recession ended, only three major U.S. metropolitan areas are experiencing an economic recovery, according to the Brookings Institution.

The Washington-based research group has also deemed Dallas and Pittsburgh in recovery after analyzing their employment levels and gross domestic product per capita.

The United States has the most major metropolitan economies of all countries - 76 - according to an annual report on the 300 largest metropolitan economies worldwide that Brookings released on Friday.

"It was still better than last year when the U.S. had no metro recoveries," Brookings Associate Fellow Emilia Istrate said.

Istrate said the three cities had two features in common: strong local services such as healthcare, and business and financial services that cater to specific industries.

The recession came late to many city budgets. Their primary revenue source - property taxes - took time to fall because of lags in real estate valuations. By the time they dropped, cities were also contending with falling sales and income taxes resulting from job losses.

Many of the splinters the downturn drove into their budgets remain deeply lodged, and cities of all sizes worry about federal spending cuts that are part of the "fiscal cliff."

"Cities are emerging slowly from the Great Recession," said Robert Zahradnik at Pew's American Cities Project, which tracks fiscal conditions and budgets. "In many cities revenues are gradually recovering but there are still some risks out there."

SEEKING TO REPLICATE A RECIPE FOR SUCCESS

Rogero has only been in office for a year. But she remembers, as a resident and as director of the city's community development office, when the recession hit. Sales tax revenues fell. The building inspections department that had always funded itself from fees had to tap the city budget.

"People were losing their jobs. People were losing their homes," she said.

Nonetheless, the city continued investing in infrastructure and fostering private investment, often using funds from the 2009 federal stimulus plan. The goals were to attract businesses and to keep people working on construction jobs such as a housing project for the elderly.

The Pittsburgh skyline partly tells the city's economic story, said Mayor Luke Ravenstahl. A major bank just finished building one skyscraper and started construction on another.

"In my mind, it's already recovered. We employ more people in Pittsburgh than we ever have," he said.

Pittsburgh built up industries before the recession, mostly in what Ravenstahl calls "eds and meds" - universities and healthcare. Then the shale gas boom put its business services in high demand.

"The opportunity that exists with shale is really something that most cities don't have. It really is going to be the economic engine in the future," he said.

All three cities created long-term stability with local services and the public sector, and growth with business and financial services, said Istrate.

"People always want to know what metros are recovering, what they are doing, so they can replicate it. There is no single industry that can help, but there is an industrial structure that can help you grow year to year," she said. "More and more metropolitan areas are looking at the export sector, at foreign investors, at infrastructure."

She noted that many U.S. metropolitan economies are doing better than some major cities in other countries.

In terms of Dallas, she said, the city's business services easily cater to the commodities sector.

Analysts at the firm IHS track employment in U.S. metropolitan areas and found almost all cities in Texas have returned to their pre-recession employment peaks, with Dallas reaching those levels in the last quarter of 2012.

The state was not hit hard by the housing bubble, said IHS Economist Steven Frable. Its industry diversity, which includes energy, business services, and trade and transportation, has attracted workers to the state.

Looking to 2013 and 2014, IHS expects more than 75 metropolitan areas to regain their peak employment, mostly large cities such as New York and Seattle.

"It's been almost four years since the recession happened and only a few metro areas...have been able to recover in terms of employment," Frable said. "Recessions these days seem to be deep, long and drawn out.

Any improvements could take a while to impact budgets, said Christy McFarland, who researches fiscal issues for the National League of Cities.

"We're going from worse to a little bit better, but it's still bad," she said.

Only three major U.S. cities see economic recovery: study | Reuters

 

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Special Report: Amazon's billion-dollar tax shield

(Reuters) - In 2005, Amazon rented a historic five-storey building in Luxembourg's Grund quarter, right at the bottom of a steep rock-walled valley below the old town.

By setting up in Luxembourg, and channelling sales through its units there, the world's biggest online retailer could minimize corporate taxes.

It was a move with big financial consequences.

Amazon's Luxembourg arrangements have deprived European governments of hundreds of millions of dollars in tax that it might otherwise have owed, as reported in European newspapers. But a Reuters examination of accounts filed by 25 Amazon units in six countries shows how they also allowed the company to avoid paying more tax in the United States, where the company is based.

In effect, Amazon used inter-company payments to form a tax shield for the group, behind which it has accumulated $2 billion to help finance its expansion.

Amazon revealed last year that the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) wants $1.5 billion in back taxes. The claim, which Amazon said it would "vigorously contest", is linked to its foreign subsidiaries and payments made between them.

The issue highlights the way multinationals reduce their taxes by parking intellectual property in tax havens and charging affiliates big fees for using it. Politicians in rich countries are beginning to target such practices, which have been used by other multinationals including Google and Microsoft.

full story: Special Report: Amazon's billion-dollar tax shield | Reuters


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EBay's double tax base prompts calls for investigation

(Reuters) - Britain and Germany may have missed out on a combined $1 billion in sales tax since online marketplace eBay picked a tiny Luxembourg office as its base for EU sales, a shift that lawmakers say should now be investigated.

EBay's nomination of Luxembourg unit eBay Europe Sarl - with a staff of nine - as its provider of services to EU clients allows it to charge customers in Europe a low rate of sales tax, often known as Value Added Tax, helping it to compete against rivals.

However, the unit doesn't actually receive the money from sales. Instead, eBay said it continues to channel revenues through a Berne-based unit, allowing the company also to benefit from what Swiss tax lawyers say is the most competitive corporate income tax regime in Europe.

EU rules allow companies to establish subsidiaries in Luxembourg and levy VAT at Luxembourg's low VAT rate on sales to customers across the bloc.

However, the rules also allow individual EU taxmen to challenge any claim to Luxembourg residence, and the right to charge Luxembourg VAT, in their domestic courts, if the taxman feels a Luxembourg-based subsidiary does not have sufficient staff or assets to support its claim to be the true supplier of goods or services.

Tax experts say eBay's arrangement, which appears to give eBay the best of both income and sales tax worlds, could be open to challenge, and lawmakers in the UK and Germany want their taxmen to investigate.

full story: EBay's double tax base prompts calls for investigation | Reuters

 

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Jobless rate 7.7%; 146,000 new jobs​

4:13PM EST December 7. 2012 - Employers added a better-than-expected 146,000 jobs in November, providing further evidence of an economy that continues to show resilience despite Superstorm Sandy and budget battles in Washington.

The unemployment rate fell to a four-year low of 7.7% from 7.9% as 350,000 Americans left the labor force, which includes people working and looking for work, the Labor Department said.

INVESTORS: Jobs report cheers markets, but few real changes

Businesses added 147,000 workers, while state, local and federal governments cut 1,000. Retailers, professional and business services and leisure and hospitality led the job gains.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the storm "did not substantively impact" employment in the Northeast.

The government revised down job gains for September and October by a total 49,000. September's additions were revised from 148,000 to 132,000 and October's, from 171,000 to 138,000.

Bloomberg's consensus forecast of economists estimated that non-farm employers added 87,000 jobs last month, with businesses adding 93,000 and state, local and federal governments cutting 6,000. Several economists had estimated the storm likely reduced job gains by as much as 80,000 to 90,000.

STOCKS: Better-than-expected report sparks rally

In light of the Labor Department's view that Sandy's effects were more muted, the overall job gains were fairly modest, says Bob Baur, chief global economist of Principal Global Investors.

"I think it shows businesses are delaying hiring because of concerns about the fiscal cliff," Baur says.

The fiscal cliff is the package of tax increases and spending cuts looming Jan. 1. They could push the U.S. back into the recession if Congress can't agree on how to soften their impact.

Instead of hiring more workers, Labor figures show businesses are piling more overtime on existing employees. Productivity, or output per labor hour, rose a solid 2.9% in the third quarter -- a trend that Baur says can't continue and will likely lead to more hiring next year after the fiscal cliff is resolved.

Meanwhile, the continuing sharp drop in the unemployment rate -- from 8.3% to 7.7% since July -- is surprising and at least partly reflects retiring Baby Boomers, says Chief U.S. Economist Jim O'Sullivan of High Frequency Economics.

"What's happening here is the demographics have changed," he says.

He says monthly job gains of about 75,000 are likely enough to keep the jobless rate from rising, down from 100,000 to 150,000.

A shrinking labor force, however, does not bode well for economic growth because retirees have less spending power.

Other barometers of the labor market were mixed. The average workweek in November was unchanged at 34.4 hours for the fifth straight month. As workloads increase, employers typically increase the hours of employees before adding new ones. And average hourly earnings rose four cents to $23.63.

More encouraging was the addition of 18,000 temporary workers. The growth of such contingent workers also tends to foreshadow a pickup in hiring.

The underemployment rate -- a broader measure of joblessness that includes the unemployed as well as part-time workers who prefer full-time jobs and discouraged workers who stopped looking -- dipped to 14.4% from 14.6%. .

POLITICS: Obama, Congress get lower unemployment rate

And the number of people out of work at least six months fell by 216,000 to 4.8 million. These long-term unemployed still represent 40.1% of all jobless Americans.

Retailers led job gains with 53,000, indicating strong holiday hiring. Professional and business services added 43,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality added 23,000 and education and health services added 18,000

But the construction industry cut 20,000 jobs and manufacturers, which have seen their exports fall amid the economic slowdown in Europe, trimmed 7,000.

Monthly job gains have averaged 151,000 this year, in line with 153,000 in 2011.

Recent economic reports have been mixed. Manufacturing activity contracted in November, but service activity picked up, reports this week showed. Rising home prices have helped buoy consumer confidence and retail sales.

 

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US trade gap widens in October as exports fall

WASHINGTON - The US trade deficit widened in October as exports fell sharply from the prior month amid a slowing global economy, government data released Tuesday showed.

The trade gap increased to US$42.2 billion from a revised US$40.3 billion in September, the Commerce Department said.

Exports fell by 3.6 percent, while imports fell by 2.1 percent.

The decline in exports was the sharpest since January 2009, led by a 4.8 percent drop in goods exports.

"Trade looks to contribute slightly to US GDP growth again in the current quarter, but pronounced weakness in exports and imports says all there is to say about the US economy's momentum," said Sal Guatieri at BMO Capital Markets.

The politically sensitive trade shortfall with China, one of the United States' biggest trading partners, expanded to a record US$28.1 billion, bringing the year's 10-month total to US$245.5 billion.

The three-month average trade deficit rose to US$41.7 billion in October from US$41.5 billion in September.

US trade gap widens in October as exports fall - Channel NewsAsia

 

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Fed announces new steps to boost U.S. economy

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday sent his clearest signal to date that the Fed will keep interest rates super-low to boost the U.S. economy even after the job market has improved significantly



WASHINGTON, Dec. 12 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced that it would continue buying longer-term Treasury securities and keep its key short-term rate near zero until the country's unemployment rate drops below 6.5 percent, so as to stimulate economic growth and job creation.

The Fed said that it will purchase longer-term U.S. government debt at a pace of 45 billion U.S. dollars per month starting in January, a move to expand its third-round quantitative easing program, also known as the QE3.

The Fed "will purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of 45 billion dollars per month," according to a statement issued after a two-day policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's interest-rate setting panel.

The latest move came ahead of the expiration at the end of this month of "Operation Twist," in which the Fed sells 45 billion dollars of short-term Treasuries and replaces them with the same amount of longer-term government debt.

The U.S. central bank also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25 percent, and anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent and inflation is projected to be no more than 2.5 percent "between one and two years ahead," according to the statement.

This is the first time that the Fed has set explicit unemployment and price thresholds for its monetary policy guidance to better explain its policy intentions to the market.

The new practice aimed to make monetary policy "more transparent and predictable to the public," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said at a press conference after the FOMC meeting.

U.S. economic activity and employment have continued to expand at a "moderate pace" in recent months, despite weather-related disruptions. Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated, said the Fed

Household spending has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed, it noted.

"The Committee (FOMC) remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions," added the Fed.

The central bank on Wednesday slightly lowered its outlook for U.S. economic growth next year, predicting that U.S. economy would expand by 2.3 percent to 3.0 percent in 2013, as against the range of 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent projected in September.

Fed policymakers held that the nation's long-term inflation expectations have remained stable and below the Fed's 2-percent objective.

Fed announces new steps to boost U.S. economy - Xinhua | English.news.cn

 

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EXCLUSIVE: Susan Rice drops out of running for secretary of state, cites 'very politicized' confirmation process

Embattled U.N. envoy Susan Rice is dropping out of the running to be the next secretary of state after months of criticism over her Benghazi comments.

“Today, I made the decision that it was the best thing for our country, for the American people that I not continue to be considered by the president for nomination of secretary of state,” Rice told NBC’s Brian Williams.

“I didn’t want to see a confirmation process that was very prolonged, very politicized, very distracting and very disruptive because there are so many things we need to get done as a country and the first several months of a second term president’s agenda is really the opportunity to get the crucial things done.”

Rice noted that President Obama’s second-term agenda included “comprehensive immigration reform, balanced deficit reduction, job creation.”

She added, “And to the extent that my nomination could have delayed or distracted or deflected or maybe even some of these priorities impossible to achieve, I didn’t want that and I much prefer to keep doing what I’m doing which is a job I love at the United Nations.”

The full interview with Rice will air on tonight’s “Rock Center With Brian Williams” at 10p/9c. Excerpts will also be broadcast on Nightly News at 6:30 pm ET.

Obama said in a statement that he accepted her decision and regretted “the unfair and misleading attacks” on Rice, who was considered a front-runner to replace Hillary Clinton as the nation’s top foreign policy official.

full story: EXCLUSIVE: Susan Rice drops out of running for secretary of state, cites 'very politicized' confirmation process - Rock Center with Brian Williams

 

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The U.S. economy grew at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, more than previously reported, reflecting the first gain in state and local government spending in three years, more consumer purchases and a smaller trade gap.
The revised gross domestic product reading exceeded the highest projection in a Bloomberg survey and compared with a previously estimated 2.7 percent gain, according to Commerce Department figures released today in Washington. The median estimate of economists called for a 2.8 percent advance.

The world’s largest economy will be hard-pressed to maintain that pace of growth this quarter as global demand cools and companies limit spending and hiring ahead of looming tax increases and spending cuts. While a stronger housing market will provide some cushion, the Federal Reserve is pursuing record stimulus aimed at driving bigger gains for the expansion.
“We’re going to have some weakness closing out this year and starting off next year,” said Omair Sharif, a U.S. economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. “We really want to see business investment coming back because, ultimately, that’s going to lead to hiring.”
The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments rose for the first time in five weeks, a separate Labor Department report today showed.
Jobless Claims
Applications for jobless benefits increased by 17,000 to 361,000 in the week ended Dec. 15. Economists forecast 360,000 claims, according to the Bloomberg survey median.
Stock-index futures were little changed after the figures, with the contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in March falling less than 0.1 percent to 1,432.8 at 8:57 a.m. in New York.
Projections for economic growth from the 80 economists surveyed ranged from gains of 2.6 percent to 3 percent. Today’s figure marked the third reading for the quarter. The economy expanded at a 1.3 percent pace in the prior three-month period.
Consumer spending rose at a 1.6 percent annual pace from July through September, compared with the 1.4 percent advance previously reported and a 1.5 percent rise in the prior quarter. Household purchases contributed 1.12 percentage points to growth in the third quarter. The gain primarily reflected more spending for health care services, the agency said.
Trade Deficit
The gap between exports and imports narrowed, adding 0.38 point to third-quarter growth. Imports declined at a 0.6 percent rate during the period, the first drop in three years.
Government spending offered more support to growth in the third quarter. State and local government outlays added 0.04 percentage point to GDP, the first contribution since the same three months in 2009. The Commerce Department previously estimated that such spending subtracted 0.04 percentage point from the economy. The upward revision primarily reflected a pickup in investment on structures.
Business investment in equipment and software, which has slumped as companies waited for lawmakers to clarify tax policy, declined at a 2.6 percent annual pace, the most since the second quarter of 2009. It subtracted 0.19 percentage point from the expansion.
Residential investment, on projects like home construction and improvement, climbed at a 13.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
Growth Outlook
Economists project the economy will slow to a 1.4 percent pace in the current quarter, according to the median of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg from Dec. 7 to Dec. 12.
Clouding their forecasts is debate over the resolution of the so-called fiscal cliff, a package of more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts in place for January should Congress fail to agree to trim the budget deficit. President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner are at odds over what level of income should be taxed at a higher rate.
Companies are pointing to uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy as one reason they’re holding back on spending.
“The economy is growing but very, very slowly,” Peter McCausland, chairman and founder of Airgas Inc. (ARG), the largest U.S. distributor of packaged gases, said during a Dec. 5 analyst meeting. “The customer feedback we’re getting is that no one wants to make a decision. We’re always hanging on by our fingernails in this particular quarter.”
‘Risk Factor’
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said a tightening in fiscal policy is a “major risk factor” that is already harming investment and hiring decisions by causing “uncertainty” or “pessimism.” The central bank “doesn’t have the tools” to offset that event, he said during a Dec. 12 press conference.
Central bank officials in the U.S. last week linked the outlook for the Fed’s main interest rate to unemployment and inflation for the first time and said they will expand the bank’s asset purchase program in January to spur the economy.
A Commerce Department price gauge that is tied to consumer spending and strips out food and energy costs climbed at a 1.1 percent annual pace, matching the prior estimate.
Changes in fiscal policy also threaten to reduce household spending, the largest part of the economy, first by hurting Americans’ confidence and then by raising their tax bill. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell in December to a four-month low, a Dec. 7 report showed.
In addition, weaker global economies indicate limited demand for U.S.-made goods. Some economists also project that the superstorm Sandy, which struck the East Coast Oct. 29, will reduce GDP in the fourth quarter.
Housing is a bright spot. The number of building permits, a proxy for future construction, issued in November was at a four- year high, according to Commerce Department figures released yesterday. Record-low mortgage rates and rising home prices suggest the housing recovery will extend into 2013.

U.S. Economy Grew 3.1% Last Quarter, More Than Forecast - Bloomberg

 

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US consumer confidence falls sharply in December

A shopper pushes a trolley through the clearance section of a store in Chicago


WASHINGTON: US consumer confidence fell sharply in December to the lowest level since August amid uncertainty about the "fiscal cliff" crisis, the Conference Board said Thursday.

The monthly survey said the consumer confidence index dipped to 65.1, a drop from a downwardly revised 71.5 in November. The previously released figure for November was 73.7. Analysts had expected the December figure to be 70.0.

December's figure is the lowest since August, when it stood at 61.3.

Lynn Franco, the Conference Board's director of economic indicators, said consumers' expectations had retreated sharply in December, resulting in a decline in the overall index.

"The sudden turnaround in expectations was most likely caused by uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff," Franco said in a statement.

With an end-of-year deadline just days away, politicians in Washington have yet to strike a deal to keep stiff tax hikes and drastic budget cuts from taking effect next month.

Experts say going over the "cliff" could take the world's biggest economy back into recession.

Franco added that a similar decline was experienced in August 2011 during debt ceiling discussions in Washington.

"While consumers are quite negative about the short-term outlook, they are more upbeat than last month about business and labour market conditions," Franco said.

US consumer confidence falls sharply in December - Channel NewsAsia


That's awful low, let see what this number will mean.


US weekly jobless claims down 12,000

US weekly jobless claims down 12,000 - Channel NewsAsia