@1000
The problem with Iraq since 2003 has been the various terrorist groups and non-state actors that have roamed around freely and which all have been able to influence the political parties and regimes.
Call them militias, al-Jays al-Iraqi al-Hurr, or whatever you want to. Sunni, Shia, Salafi/Wahhabi (just to make the farsis happy).
As long as they are present, as long as regional powers support them or are favorable to them, as long as various Iraqi regimes are sympathetic towards those groups as long as they are "their own" = from the same sect supposedly Iraq will continue to be in huge trouble.
To tell you honestly then I see a black feature for Iraq if unity and a strong independent Iraq is the goal. The Kurds in the North are basically ruling their own two countries (Barzanistan and Talabanistan), the mistrust between Sunni Arabs and Shia Arabs is huge and will take decades to heal if not generations, federalism is on the rise (see in Basra etc.).
People are getting more and more radical and extreme in their though process. Iraq's location is not helping either or the demographic makeup as no ethnic (outside of Arabs obviously) or religious group will dominate fully. It's not like in KSA, Iran and Turkey where you have 3 dominating ethnic sects and ethnicities.
Iraq should have a strong government and a strong leader that promotes Iraqi nationalism but at the same acknowledges that he is part of the Arab fold and always will be. Abadi might do this but one can't seriously have high hopes when he is a Islamic Dawa Party member. All while the State of Law coalition is still the biggest political bloc and the Shia alternative is Al-Hakim (Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq) and Al-Sadr (Sadrist Movement). Even bigger Shia islamists. Indeed the Arab world has been blessed with great retarded leaderships. Farsi influence in Iraq must be gone in order for Iraq to truly advance as before. As long as this is not the case Iraq will end up as another Southern Lebanon. Just on a bigger and more complex scale.
They are not even effective leaders. Iraq is an Islamic country and that is very good but they make a mockery out of it all with their retarded behavior, statements, corruption etc. It's the same all over the Islamic world.
The Shia militias are not doing what their enemies are doing because they have no reason to do so. They are in power but if they ever found themselves in a similar position they would employ similar tactics and fight the regime in power. As seen previously under the US occupation and under Saddam.
Of course I might be wrong and I hope so.
Anyway you know that I am right as my track record in terms of predictions in the Arab world tells its own clear story.
