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US desire to squeeze Pakistan will backfire: Former Top State Department official
5 Jan, 2018
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WASHINGTON - Lisa Curtis, a Pakistan expert who has argued that the United States should pressure Pakistan to curtail arms exports into Afghanistan, expel Taliban leaders and seize their assets.
If Pakistan does not act against militants, the Trump administration could also consider imposing sanctions, increasing the tempo of drone strikes outside of tribal areas or withholding backing for Pakistan at global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
READ MORE: Pakistan Army powerful force without US aid: ISPR
Experts have warned that additional U.S. measures might prompt Pakistan to take retaliatory action of its own, possibly including closing road routes and airspace the United States relies on to support its campaign in landlocked Afghanistan.
In 2011, Pakistan suspended access to those routes after U.S. aircraft killed more than two dozen Pakistani military personnel along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton later apologized for the incident.
READ MORE: No organised terrorists sanctuaries in Pakistan: ISPR
It was one in a series of crises during a turbulent year in which Pakistan curtailed intelligence cooperation following the arrest of a CIA contractor and the secret U.S. raid that killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.
According to Sameer Lalwani, a senior associate at the Stimson Center, Pakistan might also suspend cooperation on safeguarding its nuclear program or sharing intelligence regarding militants in Pakistan or the Pakistani diaspora in the West.
READ MORE: Pakistan Army responds to the US security aid cut, warns of throne in military ties
"They have a lot of arrows in their quiver as well," Lalwani said. "The worry is if we start going in this tit-for-tat cycle."
The nationalist instinct that characterized the response to Trump's tweet may grow stronger as Pakistani politicians react to the suspension of aid and position themselves ahead of elections expected this summer.
U.S. officials noted that the aid suspension could be reversed if they assess Pakistan has taken sufficient action, for example detaining militants. "Our hope is that Pakistan will understand our seriousnessness," the official said. "That they appreciate the valued of this relationship . . . and look at what additional they can do to address our requests."
Laurel Miller, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation who was a top State Department official until last year, cautioned that the desire to squeeze Pakistan, while understandable, might backfire.
"A punitive and shaming approach is unlikely to elicit greater cooperation from the Pakistanis because experience shows that when cornered their inclination is to dig in rather than to find some new accommodation," she said.
https://timesofislamabad.com/05-Jan...backfire-former-top-state-department-official
5 Jan, 2018
SHARES
WASHINGTON - Lisa Curtis, a Pakistan expert who has argued that the United States should pressure Pakistan to curtail arms exports into Afghanistan, expel Taliban leaders and seize their assets.
If Pakistan does not act against militants, the Trump administration could also consider imposing sanctions, increasing the tempo of drone strikes outside of tribal areas or withholding backing for Pakistan at global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
READ MORE: Pakistan Army powerful force without US aid: ISPR
Experts have warned that additional U.S. measures might prompt Pakistan to take retaliatory action of its own, possibly including closing road routes and airspace the United States relies on to support its campaign in landlocked Afghanistan.
In 2011, Pakistan suspended access to those routes after U.S. aircraft killed more than two dozen Pakistani military personnel along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton later apologized for the incident.
READ MORE: No organised terrorists sanctuaries in Pakistan: ISPR
It was one in a series of crises during a turbulent year in which Pakistan curtailed intelligence cooperation following the arrest of a CIA contractor and the secret U.S. raid that killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.
According to Sameer Lalwani, a senior associate at the Stimson Center, Pakistan might also suspend cooperation on safeguarding its nuclear program or sharing intelligence regarding militants in Pakistan or the Pakistani diaspora in the West.
READ MORE: Pakistan Army responds to the US security aid cut, warns of throne in military ties
"They have a lot of arrows in their quiver as well," Lalwani said. "The worry is if we start going in this tit-for-tat cycle."
The nationalist instinct that characterized the response to Trump's tweet may grow stronger as Pakistani politicians react to the suspension of aid and position themselves ahead of elections expected this summer.
U.S. officials noted that the aid suspension could be reversed if they assess Pakistan has taken sufficient action, for example detaining militants. "Our hope is that Pakistan will understand our seriousnessness," the official said. "That they appreciate the valued of this relationship . . . and look at what additional they can do to address our requests."
Laurel Miller, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation who was a top State Department official until last year, cautioned that the desire to squeeze Pakistan, while understandable, might backfire.
"A punitive and shaming approach is unlikely to elicit greater cooperation from the Pakistanis because experience shows that when cornered their inclination is to dig in rather than to find some new accommodation," she said.
https://timesofislamabad.com/05-Jan...backfire-former-top-state-department-official
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