Escalation in Afghanistan is not an option.
Agreed but we are not in position to stop it
No country is willing to dispatch its troops to Afghanistan (with the exception of US); Iran, Russia and China will not commit to this end because each understand how chaotic Afghanistan is and they will maintain a safe distance. The maximum each can do is to continue to provide arms to the Afghan Taliban (if this is even true), but US have the capacity to target/harass these countries in different ways as well. US is already subjecting each to economic penalties as we speak, and can divert their attention to other theaters if necessary.
Active participation does not necessarily mean troops on ground .... active participation can vary country to country based on their strength and capabilities in Afghanistan
I rather see the trio of Iran, Russia and China, committing to the intra-Afghan dialogue because a chaotic Afghanistan is a problem for each as well,
Yes .... but the factor you forget which I explicitly mention in my post is the
emergence of ISIS which not only an extra regional entity but also could not be a part of any solution be it Intra-Afhan dialogue or any other solution based on wider political understanding b/w Afghan groups
but they also understand that US have the ultimate say in the affairs of Afghanistan at present.
We can agree to disagree on this .....
I am a firm believer that No single country or a group have 'ULTIMATE' say or could act as ultimate deciding factor for Afghan problem, all have some degree of influence but none have final decision power about the political future of Afghanistan ....
Very timid, and commitment to the intra-Afghan dialogue is apparent.
Currently we are also favouring this and recent trilateral dialogue b/w Pakistan, Afghan regime and China can be taken as prove for this
Pakistan have CPEC to operationalize, FATF to address, and a dysfunctional economy to fix.
exactly these are the factors which I was pointing out when I said strategic national Interest related to economic prosperity, territorial integrity, political sovereignty
A chaotic Afghanistan will undermine foreign investments in Pakistan, split Pakistan's attention between Afghanistan and IOK, and continue to siphon from Pakistan's economy.
exactly, but the issue is
we can not stop chaos in Afghanistan going to its worst in near future, our economic development is related to stability in the region but the situation in Afghanistan and Kashmir would not let the region become stable, in context of Afghanistan spillover of civil war will directly increase risk and danger to CPEC and political and social social stability particularly in KPK and Baluchistan region, we would face a new wave of sub-conventional war.
India can/will benefit from this dynamic,
Agreed and I also have pointed out the same in my post ....
and India is on very good terms with Iran, GCC and Russia on top.
but presence of ISIS in Afghanistan is not in the interest of any of the country you mention ..... so our cooperation with those countries in context of Afghanistan should not be effected by relations of India with those countries, here keep one more thing in mind that China is going to invest $250 billion in Iran and it could go up to $400 billion in future so strategic and diplomatic equation of region could change
And how can we even afford to antagonize US?
Why US should get antagonised .... ???
We have done our part by bringing Taliban on the table, we could not guarantee any solution so if the situation go worst which it seems its certain .... we could not be held responsible for the failure of USA in Afghanistan
ISIS has emerged in the presence of US forces in Afghanistan and none of the regional country specially Pakistan can afford the spread of ISIS in the region.
GOP need to have a serious dialogue with Afghan Taliban, and convince them to work with Donald Trump because he is the only man in power who is resisting pressures of American deep state, and would want to tout about progress in Afghanistan in the upcoming Presidential elections. Options like these are not always on the cards, and should not be taken for granted.,
We are in no position to convince Taliban for anything and this is a fact which was proved many times in past, all we can do is open a channel for negotiation and dialogue which we did .....
Now as far as the argument of Trump being a person who could resist American deep state and could win a win-win solution for Afghanistan is concern I need to see any track record of trump where he has successfully concluded any international dialogue on positive note be it with North Korea or Iran or Trade war with China .....
the max I see Trump as a President who might have a wish to end Afghan conflict but not as someone who have the power to deliver on the issue and for this recall the killing of Brother and son of Taliban Supreme leader by NDS when the last session of dialogues for Afghan peace process was in progress in Qatar, even after this Taliban concluded the dialogue and agreed to the peace agreement which mean they delivered the anticipated results. Its the US government which back out from the agreed agreement, so Trump might appear authoritative and decisive person but in reality he actually have to prove this
