US decreasing not withdrawing forces from Afghanistan: Kerry

[indushek]

The long and short of it is this: Afghanistan is going to steadily keep BOILING.
And the SPILLOVER from that boiling is going to scald people in the neighborhood who are least equipped either economically, militarily or strategically to handle that. Who might that be?

That is the explanation for the spate of multi-lateral meetings that have taken place internationally over Afghanistan. Which is a part of the efforts by major international players to cover their bases. But it will finally show results in relation-ship to the three factors enumerated above. The lesser players will have lesser immunity to the eventual blow-back.

The Americans are just setting into place, the PLAN B that they always had.

Recently Pakistani Foreign office guys were seen changing tact and meeting Karzai, saying we shouldn't ignore the in gov guys. I was like, what you call him 'Mayor of Kabul' so what happened

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Recently Pakistani Foreign office guys were seen changing tact and meeting Karzai, saying we shouldn't ignore the in gov guys. I was like, what you call him 'Mayor of Kabul' so what happened

All the dynamics in Afghanistan are simply nebulous now, in the process of change. The only thing that can be predidicted is the unrest that will be more and more visible. There has been a great deal of 'behind the scenes' confabulations going on. Even the composition of the players is changing. They are not even the same as that when the Taliban last took over Afghanistan.
So everybody is setting up a Plan B of their own. The Americans had worked on their PLAN B long ago.

Just think; the last time around, China had nothing to do with Afghanistan. Now China has been discussing Afghanistan even with Russia and India. Why is that? On her own behalf or as a broker on behalf of somebody else?
Iran has also been a serious part of the multi-lateral discussions, and Iran's views have even been conveyed to the US and even the US is cognisant of some of that now. So the sterotypes and conventional wisdoms that were so far wrapped around Afghanistan can best be discarded.

But as I said earlier:

The long and short of it is this: Afghanistan is going to steadily keep BOILING.
And the SPILLOVER from that boiling is going to scald people in the neighborhood who are least equipped either economically, militarily or strategically to handle that. Who might that be?

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...forces-afghanistan-kerry-3.html#ixzz2b0xLgtCY

 

[indushek]

All the dynamics in Afghanistan are simply nebulous now, in the process of change. The only thing that can be predidicted is the unrest that will be more and more visible. There has been a great deal of 'behind the scenes' confabulations going on. Even the composition of the players is changing. They are not even the same as that when the Taliban last took over Afghanistan.
So everybody is setting up a Plan B of their own. The Americans had worked on their PLAN B long ago.

Just think; the last time around, China had nothing to do with Afghanistan. Now China has been discussing Afghanistan even with Russia and India. Why is that? On her own behalf or as a broker on behalf of somebody else?
Iran has also been a serious part of the multi-lateral discussions, and Iran's views have even been conveyed to the US and even the US is cognisant of some of that now. So the sterotypes and conventional wisdoms that were so far wrapped around Afghanistan can best be discarded.

But as I said earlier:




Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...forces-afghanistan-kerry-3.html#ixzz2b0xLgtCY

But people here think these are our (Indian's) wet dreams, nobody wants to see the changing dynamics.

 

[rockstarIN]

Yeah , quite effective in creating ' new ' enemies by deaths of innocents , with less causalities of the High Value Targets . You think you understand the ' asymmetrical warfare ' there , by declaring ' the small force isn't a disadvantage ' ? . It means less troops to effectively hold off areas , more soldiers stationed in remote bases for protection of large cities only unlike now , limited to training and consultation , more breathing space for the militants , a bigger headache for the ANA who has to fight on its own now without the extensive U.S support . The technology use will more or less remain the same , after all the coalition didn't come ill prepared in 2001 . As for Pakistanis having a problem , I dont really think so .



Please enlighten me , why will they ever loose the ' invisible ' standard ? This is the basic MO of the militant groups .

Aren't they gonna invade Kabul post 2014?

 

[Vinod2070]

The long and short of it is this: Afghanistan is going to steadily keep BOILING.
And the SPILLOVER from that boiling is going to scald people in the neighborhood who are least equipped either economically, militarily or strategically to handle that. Who might that be?

That is the explanation for the spate of multi-lateral meetings that have taken place internationally over Afghanistan. Which is a part of the efforts by major international players to cover their bases. But it will finally show results in relation-ship to the three factors enumerated above. The lesser players will have lesser immunity to the eventual blow-back.

The Americans are just setting into place, the PLAN B that they always had.

If you have read the book "next 100 years" by the Stratfor founder, keeping the region destabilized and not "winning the Afghan war" was part of the original plan.

Not sure how literally to take the book but it suggests that USA never wanted to stabilize Afghanistan or Iraq. It never wanted to achieve something but to prevent something.

And that something was to prevent the emergence of any large powerful Islamic country.

If this is true, everything makes sense despite the apparent chaos and flip flop. All this is a sideshow in the larger scheme of things.

Unfortunately the price is being paid and will be paid even more, by the people of our region. Most notably those closest to the scene.

We have a buffer in between to shield us to an extent.

 

[Secur]

Aren't they gonna invade Kabul post 2014?

I dont see a single faction in Afghanistan , this time , taking Kabul alone . The civil war and the country continuing to boil , otherwise , is a more plausible scenario .