US-China Cold War 2.0 megathread

[Titanium100]

A US-China clash is not unthinkable
Lack of cold war-style checks between Washington and Beijing means there is scope for miscalculation


EDWARD LUCE

23th September 2021

A US-China clash is not unthinkable

Lack of cold war-style checks between Washington and Beijing means there is scope for miscalculation

www.ft.com

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Here is my opinion and verdict. The cold war 2.0 has officially started and many people will point out to the trade wars being the beginning of the cold war or Quad formation etc etc but these were just prelude to the cold war 2.0 but with AUKUS and the nuclear submarine it has officially begun 15th september 2021 and note this day will be remembered as the day Cold war 2.0 has started.

Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, announced on 15 September 2021.[1] Under the pact, the US and the UK agree to help Australia to develop and deploy nuclear-powered submarines, adding to the Western military presence in the Pacific region

AUKUS - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Biden said something about improving relations with China but there is really nothing to improve here because there is no beef but there is compeition which is why the US approved a competition act few months back against china on all government levels and made it official. China knows it has entered a hectic competition which will split the world into two camps and they will play their hand.

The US didn't forsee a major power to rise so fast after the collaspe of the soviet union and not to forget one that is 100 times stronger than the Soviet union and the reason this has become a major surprise to the US is because in the speed which China rose out of nowhere like a phoenix China has been growing in a decade what other countries does in 30 years. meaning China may have covered the amount of 50-60 years of growth from 2000 to 2020 which kinda threw everything they had previously calculated into the garbage and the rise itself became an anomaly and China is here now it has stronger industrial power than the US, more logistical power and more manpower they ain't going nowhere and realizing hey this is an old dying entity (Americans) They can't compete with us nor even approch our speed which is absolutely true. China views them as this old man whos from a bygone era that needs to step aside.

It will be interesting to see China's counter move and I think I know where and how but I don't wanna reveal to much details But they will gather necessary backers in the next 15-20 years to officially end the Dollar and we will see a new currency in the next 15-20 years...

 

[Menthol]

This Cold War, it's not just an ordinary Cold War.

It will be ended in the nuclear war.

The war that had been told all over the world.


One-third of the world population will perish.

350 millions in North America, 750 millions in Europe, and 1.5 billions in East Asia.

Equal to 2.6 billions will die.

Today world's population is 7.5 billions.

2.6 billions is exactly one-third of 7.5 billions.

 

[kuge]

This Cold War, it's not just an ordinary Cold War.

It will be ended in the nuclear war.

The war that had been told all over the world.


One-third of the world population will perish.

350 millions in North America, 750 millions in Europe, and 1.5 billions in East Asia.

Equal to 2.6 billions will die.

Today world's population is 7.5 billions.

2.6 billions is exactly one-third of 7.5 billions.

said who?

btw that cold war mentality is unique to US not china's

 

[Menthol]

said who?

btw that cold war mentality is unique to US not china's

You don't know the prophecy?

 

[FuturePAF]

An interesting video on the subject. It looks like, IMHO, these guys are analyzing China’s perspective clearly (a little too well...but I digress), the key summary that comes across in why this is different from Cold War 1.0 is the Chinese unlike the Soviets are playing (in the terminology of game theory) an infinite game, while the hysteria makes everyone think they are playing a finite game to be global hegemon (regional hegemon to some extent, but even that is more of a burden then a blessing as the Soviets learned)

The best approach for either side is just plain old fashion competition and waiting out the other side till something changes. The US has a long track record of nearly 250 years of the same government, and the CCP has outlasted the Soviet government with no sign of collapsing, it doesn’t look like this hysteria is justified.

 

[Stranagor]

If it is Cold War, US is the relatively isolated one - from trade perspective. China's foreign trade volume is twice that of the US. Cold Wars are won economically since military force is out of question among great powers.

 

[FuturePAF]

If it is Cold War, US is the relatively isolated one - from trade perspective. China's foreign trade volume is twice that of the US. Cold Wars are won economically since military force is out of question among great powers.

But China can be cut off from the latest key technologies, which may hinder economic development of downstream industries. The US isn’t isolated just because it’s trade volume is lower. The US has reliable domestic access to some of the cheapest supplies of raw materials (especially energy) and a well developed domestic market to cater for.

This is why the CCP leadership thinks BRI and China 2025 goals are crucial to the nation’s survival; through catching up with the developed nations.

 

[Stranagor]

But China can be cut off from the latest key technologies, which may hinder economic development of downstream industries. The US isn’t isolated just because it’s trade volume is lower. The US has reliable domestic access to some of the cheapest supplies of raw materials (especially energy) and a well developed domestic market to cater for.

This is why the CCP leadership thinks BRI and China 2025 goals are crucial to the nation’s survival; through catching up with the developed nations.

I think it cannot be cut off more than it is now. In fact, even though Trump somehow popularized it, China has been under sanctions since the 80s. No advanced tech from the US and Europe has been allowed.

China's domestic consumption is much bigger than the US and its market has room for development. US is saturated, China still has 400 million plus joining the ranks of middle class. US rioting minorities and shanty towns do not give much optimism about consumption prospects.

In 2021, China's 11/11 shopping festival raked 110 billion USD. US Black Friday stood at 9 billion. Go figure.

About resources, China is lucky to have physical connections with both Russia, Russian Arctic, and Central Asia. Mongolia is a large coal depot.

BRI and Made in China 2025 are important, but they are not the only games in town. Before the BRI, China was already the country with the most number of countries with China their greatest trade partner.

So, it is a fierce competition, but increasingly on even grounds.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I think it cannot be cut off more than it is now. In fact, even though Trump somehow popularized it, China has been under sanctions since the 80s. No advanced tech from the US and Europe has been allowed.

China's domestic consumption is much bigger than the US and its market has room for development. US is saturated, China still has 400 million plus joining the ranks of middle class. US rioting minorities and shanty towns do not give much optimism about consumption prospects.

In 2021, China's 11/11 shopping festival raked 110 billion USD. US Black Friday stood at 9 billion. Go figure.

About resources, China is lucky to have physical connections with both Russia, Russian Arctic, and Central Asia. Mongolia is a large coal depot.

BRI and Made in China 2025 are important, but they are not the only games in town. Before the BRI, China was already the country with the most number of countries with China their greatest trade partner.

So, it is a fierce competition, but increasingly on even grounds.

Russia and ASEAN are our core tech allies.

 

[Stranagor]

Russia and ASEAN are our core tech allies.

Exactly. US cannot surpass the dynamism, especially, ASEAN offers. No wonder it is China's greatest trade partner going for 1 trillion USD volume.

Under sanctions, Russian economy somehow became more dynamic. There is good future prospects for greater cooperation.

 

[Shotgunner51]

But China can be cut off from the latest key technologies

Shall we quantify it, with credible/official source?

That's true in 20th century when China lacked behind in R&D, the country was even way behind SK or Europe, let alone matching Japan or US, but now? As per WIPO, the United Nations agency for global intellectual property administration, patent filings in China surpassed the EPO and the SK in 2005, Japan in 2010 and the US in 2011, and now receives the most applications as well as grants worldwide.

Even if China's huge population is taken into account, the country still ranks 4th in the world, or has recorded a annual growth of 16% over the last 10 years.

Coming down to impact on real-life business, strong technologies reserve is perhaps the most important driver behind a nation's hi-tech exports. Even with US waiving an epic scale of Trade War on China since 2016, not to mention decades old Wassenaar Regime, in 2020 China hi-tech exports further soared to $757.7 billion (over 30% of all exports), that even excludes HK's data (partly re-export), and was already more than 5 times that of US. Picture looks differently from US side, hi-tech exports is not only small compared with China, it also constitutes only 10% of US total exports.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

 

[FuturePAF]

Shall we quantify it, with credible/official source?

That's true in 20th century when China lacked behind in R&D, the country was even way behind SK or Europe, let alone matching Japan or US, but now? As per WIPO, the United Nations agency for global intellectual property administration, patent filings in China surpassed the EPO and the SK in 2005, Japan in 2010 and the US in 2011, and now receives the most applications as well as grants worldwide.

View attachment 805375

Even if China's huge population is taken into account, the country still ranks 4th in the world, or has recorded a annual growth of 16% over the last 10 years.

View attachment 805383

Coming down to impact on real-life business, strong technologies reserve is perhaps the most important driver behind a nation's hi-tech exports. Even with US waiving an epic scale of Trade War on China since 2016, not to mention decades old Wassenaar Regime, in 2020 China hi-tech exports further soared to $757.7 billion (over 30% of all exports), that even excludes HK's data (partly re-export), and was already more than 5 times that of US. Picture looks differently from US side, hi-tech exports is not only small compared with China, it also constitutes only 10% of US total exports.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Number of patents are not the measure of having the latest high technologies. Many patents could just be new ways to do standard things more efficiently by a new competitor.

Aircraft Engines for passenger airliners as well as semiconductors are the two most prominent that come to mind.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Number of patents are not the measure

I guess to many people such statement doesn't apply to the last century when US lead the world in patent metrics, and suddenly become increasingly applicable after 2000?

Don't worry, the same WIPO, in collaboration with the west of course, does offer another measure from 2012 onward. A patent-derived measure far more easy for western readers to accept: an INDEX.

The Global Innovation Index (GII) began in 2007 by a French college (INSEAD) and a British magazine (World Business). WIPO only began co-publishing the GII in 2012. From 2013~2020, Cornell University joined WIPO and INSEAD as co-publisher. As of 2021, the GII is co-published by WIPO with the Portulans Institute, various corporate and academic network partners and an "Advisory Board". Last year, this index put China at 12, way below US and even some EPO countries. I am sure this index is a measure more comfortable for people in the west.