Indus Pakistan
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- May 7, 2012
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Pakistan has limited efficacy in shutting down the supply route. It using the key alone unilaterally will not achieve much as it did not when previously Pakistan shut it for a while. However as in conjunction with other key holders I think USA can be squeezed. The Caucus-Central Asian route requires Turkmenistan and or Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan to oblige. I make a assumption that Russia has influence over these countries. Therefore Pakistan in conjunction with other three could squeeze US. The problem is within Pakistan we have a large 'Arab' lobby that looks upto KSA as "gods" and to build up a strong alliance with Iran requires going against KSA as it will do everything to prevent a move by Pakistan toward Tehran. KSA is America's secret hand in Pakistan.
My feeling is a Pak tilt toward Iran is only possible if China slowly pushes Pakistan via the army. It is possible that is already happening. Prime Minister Imran Khan does not owe anything to KSA unlike Nawaz Sharif. I noticed in PM IK's inaugeration speach he specifically mentioned Iran. And I believe the Iranian foreign minister was the first to visit PM IK. So perhaps we are seeing a change. I certainly think that Pakistan has to enter new era where new alignment has to be workerd on particularly around Iran, China and Russia.
I am sure you have heard of the 'Mackinder heartland pivot. These four, Pakistan, Iran, Russia and China can end up dominating the Eurasian heartland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History
My feeling is a Pak tilt toward Iran is only possible if China slowly pushes Pakistan via the army. It is possible that is already happening. Prime Minister Imran Khan does not owe anything to KSA unlike Nawaz Sharif. I noticed in PM IK's inaugeration speach he specifically mentioned Iran. And I believe the Iranian foreign minister was the first to visit PM IK. So perhaps we are seeing a change. I certainly think that Pakistan has to enter new era where new alignment has to be workerd on particularly around Iran, China and Russia.
I am sure you have heard of the 'Mackinder heartland pivot. These four, Pakistan, Iran, Russia and China can end up dominating the Eurasian heartland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History