US attacks China!! a scenario

[Jay_]

Also regarding the superiority of Arleigh Burke - Jay, do you remember this incident when Russian fighters buzzed the desk of the Kitty Hawk? Where were the Arleigh Burkes with Aegis???

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/showthread.php?t=10665

This story was verified btw and NOT an urban legend!!

I dont know what you are trying to prove here. Burke's are capable if not the best behind those swedish one's. Just coz some Russian flankers did a fly by on a CVBG does not mean that its the end of USN, does it?

And read the circumstances on how and why it happened.

 

[TexasJohn]

I dont know what you are trying to prove here. Burke's are capable if not the best behind those swedish one's. Just coz some Russian flankers did a fly by on a CVBG does not mean that its the end of USN, does it?

And read the circumstances on how and why it happened.

OK, I'll explain. The Burke's are what protect a carrier group - along with with aircraft, ASW and subs, etc. They are responsible for a "space denial" ( best phrase I can think of) of several miles around the carrier.

The planes that buzzed the Kitty Hawk were not even the latest and greatest Russian planes. In real life it would have meant - the carrier just got sunk. The Chinese Air Force flies the SU-30MKKs that can carry the latest and greatest class of supersonic anti-ship missiles that are classified as " carrier busters". The Russian built Chinese destroyers also carry these.

Sovremenny-class guided-missile destroyers, have been test-firing their SS-N-22 Sunburn carrier-busting anti-ship missiles (range 120km). In March this year, Chinese navy ordered two more Sovremennys, to be delivered by 2005. They will be equipped with the SS-N-26 Yakhont supersonic anti-ship missile (range 300km).

Bottom line is if the Burke's and other defenses could not protect the carrier, all we have is a large target that can be nailed easily.

All the Chinese need is a 1% success rate!!

I am going by my earlier post that the US would not intervene if China attacked Taiwan for the same reason.

Carrier Battle groups represent the symbol of America's power projection as a superpower. The loss of even one carrier in terms of men, (~3,000), global prestige ( man! them 3rd world people were able to sink a mighty carrier of the world's only superpower), local public outrage ( where the hell is Taiwan - and why should we care? please remember the average American does not really know the difference) of why we were in harms way, would escalate the political - not military costs of intervention.

That is what I meant by we will not have the political will and the talk of defending Taiwan is nothing more than rhetoric!

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Please read more - We DID apologize,

No, the US did not apologize. The US expressed regrets over the incident. If you want to say that the intent was to apologize, you may have a point but no apology was ever given.

the damage to the plane was propeller on Engine #1, and damage to the radome. Technicians established it could be repaired and flown out. The Chinese would not let us do that.

YOU'VE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!!!!!! You've got an American spy plane at a secret Chinese airbase (all right, all Chinese airbases are secret) and now you want to invite technical expertise to poke around Chinese secrets? They ain't that ****.

OPSEC procedures involve driving metal nails through drives among other things to damage platters and make it unreadable. Being in the IT field - I know for a fact any number to data recovery companies here in Dallas can take something like that and glean the data in a clean room. It's not that hard. We don't know what classified info they have.

They've got nothing. Maybe they've got a bunch of 1s and zeros but the data on those systems are encrypted and decrypted realtime. And those encryption is hard coded. Once those chips were destroyed, the Chinese got squat.

Sorry about your perception, but the reality is different. Here is a link to assist you:

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EPF/is_25_100/ai_74692671

All that is is an opinion, not a fact.

We ALSO compromised on how to avoid future incidents with them.

What crompomise? We gave them the same deal that the Soviets and us worked out for our ego games. They took it.

 

[TexasJohn]

No, the US did not apologize. The US expressed regrets over the incident. If you want to say that the intent was to apologize, you may have a point but no apology was ever given.


YOU'VE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!!!!!! You've got an American spy plane at a secret Chinese airbase (all right, all Chinese airbases are secret) and now you want to invite technical expertise to poke around Chinese secrets? They ain't that ****.

Since you do not believe in reading let me assist you. This from the Stars and Stripes (US Armed Forces) magazine

http://ww2.pstripes.osd.mil/01/may01/ed050401a.html

hmmm.... sounds like techies to me. Read the article all the way through.I know you can do it!


They've got nothing. Maybe they've got a bunch of 1s and zeros but the data on those systems are encrypted and decrypted realtime. And those encryption is hard coded. Once those chips were destroyed, the Chinese got squat.

:idiot: It's now completely obvious you know nothing about computers. Yes, 0s and 1s is how data is stored on any computer.
it's called binary! It doesn'y surprise me you know nothing about data recovery. Here is what it said:

"U.S. officials have said they are certain Chinese officials boarded the EP-3 shortly after its emergency landing and began taking equipment, supposedly for further study and possible "reverse engineering," in which computers are dissected by experts and then meticulously reconstructed to reveal their technological capabilities"


All that is is an opinion, not a fact.
What crompomise? We gave them the same deal that the Soviets and us worked out for our ego games. They took it.[/QUOTE]

Whatever - btw if your computer ever takes a dive, I'll be happy to help you recover your hard drive:love:

 

[Officer of Engineers]

No, the US did not apologize. The US expressed regrets over the incident. If you want to say that the intent was to apologize, you may have a point but no apology was ever given.


YOU'VE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!!!!!! You've got an American spy plane at a secret Chinese airbase (all right, all Chinese airbases are secret) and now you want to invite technical expertise to poke around Chinese secrets? They ain't that ****.

Since you do not believe in reading let me assist you. This from the Stars and Stripes (US Armed Forces) magazine

http://ww2.pstripes.osd.mil/01/may01/ed050401a.html

hmmm.... sounds like techies to me. Read the article all the way through.I know you can do it![/quote]

What does that prove? A hell of alot of difference between an inspection than a full crew with tons of US equipment running around on a Chinese base. You can keep an eye on an inspection. You've going to have a hell of a time keeping an eye on an entire repair team coming and going.

They've got nothing. Maybe they've got a bunch of 1s and zeros but the data on those systems are encrypted and decrypted realtime. And those encryption is hard coded. Once those chips were destroyed, the Chinese got squat.

:idiot: It's now completely obvious you know nothing about computers. Yes, 0s and 1s is how data is stored on any computer.
it's called binary! It doesn'y surprise me you know nothing about data recovery. Here is what it said:

"U.S. officials have said they are certain Chinese officials boarded the EP-3 shortly after its emergency landing and began taking equipment, supposedly for further study and possible "reverse engineering," in which computers are dissected by experts and then meticulously reconstructed to reveal their technological capabilities"

I know alot more than you. I've started my career with typewriters and when computers uses those punch cards. I've also been heavily involved in OPSEC and COMMSEC both in protocals and technologies.

Yeah, right, the Chinese can recover encryption and decryption algorithms from smashed chips. You want to tell me another fairy tale? The data is encrypted and decrypted REALTIME via hardcoded IC chips. You've got alot to learn about military systems.

I suggest you read Lt Osborn's book. He stated upfront that before he allowed the Chinese to board, he made sure all OPSEC procedures were completed.

Whatever - btw if your computer ever takes a dive, I'll be happy to help you recover your hard drive:love:

Give me a break. These things are lego sets.

 

[Jay_]

The planes that buzzed the Kitty Hawk were not even the latest and greatest Russian planes. In real life it would have meant - the carrier just got sunk. The Chinese Air Force flies the SU-30MKKs that can carry the latest and greatest class of supersonic anti-ship missiles that are classified as " carrier busters". The Russian built Chinese destroyers also carry these.

Yeah, but did you read why/how Kitty hawk got buzzed?

Sovremenny-class guided-missile destroyers, have been test-firing their SS-N-22 Sunburn carrier-busting anti-ship missiles (range 120km). In March this year, Chinese navy ordered two more Sovremennys, to be delivered by 2005. They will be equipped with the SS-N-26 Yakhont supersonic anti-ship missile (range 300km).

PLAN has no means to acquire targets in the open seas, so even if they have a 2000km missiles its a waste.

Bottom line is if the Burke's and other defenses could not protect the carrier, all we have is a large target that can be nailed easily.

Do you even know whether Kitty Hawk has other defenses ?

I am going by my earlier post that the US would not intervene if China attacked Taiwan for the same reason.

Believe all you want, PLAN knows the truth. The combined ABCA navies along with JMSDF will be there in the action, which would sink PLAN to the bottom of South China sea.

Carrier Battle groups represent the symbol of America's power projection as a superpower. The loss of even one carrier in terms of men, (~3,000), global prestige ( man! them 3rd world people were able to sink a mighty carrier of the world's only superpower), local public outrage ( where the hell is Taiwan - and why should we care? please remember the average American does not really know the difference) of why we were in harms way, would escalate the political - not military costs of intervention.

The same would apply to China when PLAN boats are sunk one aftet the other.

That is what I meant by we will not have the political will and the talk of defending Taiwan is nothing more than rhetoric!

Hope we will never find it out.

 

[TexasJohn]

hmmm.... sounds like techies to me. Read the article all the way through.I know you can do it!

What does that prove? A hell of alot of difference between an inspection than a full crew with tons of US equipment running around on a Chinese base. You can keep an eye on an inspection. You've going to have a hell of a time keeping an eye on an entire repair team coming and going.



I know alot more than you. I've started my career with typewriters and when computers uses those punch cards. I've also been heavily involved in OPSEC and COMMSEC both in protocals and technologies.

Yeah, right, the Chinese can recover encryption and decryption algorithms from smashed chips. You want to tell me another fairy tale? The data is encrypted and decrypted REALTIME via hardcoded IC chips. You've got alot to learn about military systems.

I suggest you read Lt Osborn's book. He stated upfront that before he allowed the Chinese to board, he made sure all OPSEC procedures were completed.



Give me a break. These things are lego sets.[/QUOTE]

I am glad you know it all, totally in denial of facts. which appears to be very little

Talk about blinders! " I dont' care what the facts are - say it isn't true-- don't upset my life......aaargh!!!! it hurts too much!!!! "

Long time!!! - btw who is Lt.Osborn? buddy of col. whatshisface?
Do you have any REAL links other than out of work armchair warriors??

Also, do you have any REAL facts other than emotional wanna bees? You have yet to substantiate ANYTHING other than opinions! as they everyone has one!

 

[sigatoka]

Sorry, I fail to see how PLAN's surface fleet can stack up with USN or even for that matter other Asian navies like JMSDF and IN.

The indian navy is pretty pathetic, i find it hard to accept that the Indian navy is better than the Chinese even with their two outdated aircraft carriers.

The Japan navy is superior to the Chinese BUT Japan didnt support U.S. in Iraq, there is no guarantee that they would support U.S. action in Taiwan especially in with a hundred or so nuclear tipped MRBM pointed their way.

With the large increases in Chinese military budget, their capability will exceed that of Japan within five years in terms of their navy.

Japanese troops have not fought or participated in any combat since world war 2, it is doubtful what their capability will actually be. Their constitution restricts their military capability such that apart from their bases they give to U.S. forces, they wont play a decisive role in the conflict.

 

[TexasJohn]

The indian navy is pretty pathetic, i find it hard to accept that the Indian navy is better than the Chinese even with their two outdated aircraft carriers.

The Japan navy is superior to the Chinese BUT Japan didnt support U.S. in Iraq, there is no guarantee that they would support U.S. action in Taiwan especially in with a hundred or so nuclear tipped MRBM pointed their way.

With the large increases in Chinese military budget, their capability will exceed that of Japan within five years in terms of their navy.

Japanese troops have not fought or participated in any combat since world war 2, it is doubtful what their capability will actually be. Their constitution restricts their military capability such that apart from their bases they give to U.S. forces, they wont play a decisive role in the conflict.

I don't remember saying that IN was superior to China's. But I don't think they are pathetic either. They are still learning..

 

[TexasJohn]

Yeah, but did you read why/how Kitty hawk got buzzed?


PLAN has no means to acquire targets in the open seas, so even if they have a 2000km missiles its a waste.


Do you even know whether Kitty Hawk has other defenses ?


Believe all you want, PLAN knows the truth. The combined ABCA navies along with JMSDF will be there in the action, which would sink PLAN to the bottom of South China sea.


The same would apply to China when PLAN boats are sunk one aftet the other.


Hope we will never find it out.

Jay, what did you mean by "Yeah, but did you read why/how Kitty hawk got buzzed?"

I'm afraid I did not understand what you meant by that. I thought the link covered the incident in detail. What am I missing? sorry.

 

[Jay_]

The indian navy is pretty pathetic, i find it hard to accept that the Indian navy is better than the Chinese even with their two outdated aircraft carriers.

Oh, cut thebs already. PLAN cannot come anywhere close to IOCR, all they can croon is in South China sea. IN has already patrolled Malacca Straits much to thedismay of the Chinese and look at the way IN mobilized its fleet during Tsunami.

With the large increases in Chinese military budget, their capability will exceed that of Japan within five years in terms of their navy.

Yeah, would be and If's. Give them 100 years and they will beat the martians out of the sky. We are talking about present capabilities.

Their constitution restricts their military capability such that apart from their bases they give to U.S. forces, they wont play a decisive role in the conflict.

Thats until China touches one of their merchant ships. You do know majority of the oil transported to Japan is via IOCR and Straits of Malacca.

 

[sigatoka]

Yeah, would be and If's. Give them 100 years and they will beat the martians out of the sky. We are talking about present capabilities.

Im usually all for that, but in this case China's economy is growing at 9% per annum. That means doubling around every seven years. Defense spending growth is just as robust. As well since defence depreciation is around 10%, in five years there will have been significant accumualtion of military hardware on China's part.

It is easy to forecast out to five years with accuracy, it is not as you say that its about ifs and buts.

It is important to remember that the Navy enjoys low priority compared to other arms in Chinese military. This will not be so important since it does not seek to project power to the other side of the globe. It doesnt need Aircraft Carriers for its aircraft to hit Taiwanese Targets.

 

[Jay_]

As well since defence depreciation is around 10%, in five years there will have been significant accumualtion of military hardware on China's part.

It is easy to forecast out to five years with accuracy, it is not as you say that its about ifs and buts.

The good Colonel here can vouch about Chinese modernisation. the so called accumulation will not be as huge as you think. you know chinese soldiers are human and they need to be fed. The older junks cannot be completely thrown out, they have to be serviced and not the least, pension to the retired comrades. In reality, not a large amount goes in to modernisation as you claim, most of them go to maintain existing systems/personnel.

I dont have a link off hand, but I remember reading it in CDF, I request the Colonel to post his opinion on this.

 

[sigatoka]

The good Colonel here can vouch about Chinese modernisation. the so called accumulation will not be as huge as you think. you know chinese soldiers are human and they need to be fed. The older junks cannot be completely thrown out, they have to be serviced and not the least, pension to the retired comrades. In reality, not a large amount goes in to modernisation as you claim, most of them go to maintain existing systems/personnel.

I dont have a link off hand, but I remember reading it in CDF, I request the Colonel to post his opinion on this.

The U.S. has around 140,000 troops committed to Iraq, around 20,000 to Afghanistan. It needs around 200,000 for contingency for Iran, 100,000 for North Korea and is spending tremondous amounts of resources in fighting rather than in acquiring new hardware. There have been cuts across the board in the numbers that U.S. military will acquire of planes, subs, helicopters and so on.

Should hostilities with China increase, it will be gradual. China will double its military budget to 5% while U.S. might only be able to increase it 1% to 5% because of political reasons. (guns vs butter). China will arm nations that U.S. considers rogue and in this Russia is also pursuing robustly independant foreign policy (read anti-american).

Things certainly do not look rosy for the U.S. and is a far fall from ten years ago when it was the sole undisputed superpower.

 

[Jay_]

Yes, the US is cutting corner across the board like any other country/enterprise. But they still do have a humongous defense budget, that China or Russia or the combination of any other nations can beat. Not to mention the technological advantage they have over China.

Remember no one is selling them to China as we speak, not even the French.

Lets see what are thr nations that China can arm,. Other than Iran I dont see any other adversary that US cares. But think about what a CVBG force in South China sea can do to the hyped one China policy? Think what would happen if US directly supports Taiwan independence?? The results would be far reaching inside China.