Unraveling Bangladesh’s cabinet puzzle: Less of India and more of China?

[bd_4_ever]

You are thinking about short term goals. Hasina is surely a good leader but every thing has an end. What would happen after her departure? Her supposed successors are not even 1% as efficient as her to command such enormous centralized power. An almost non-existent opposition and weak institutions would mean there would be huge political vacuum that could lead to massive instability, paving the way for direct foreign intervention.

This is an age of Information Technology. There is a reason why previously undemocratic countries are now heading towards democratization. We all know what happened to the countries affected by the Arab Spring. Take a look what's happening in Venezuela.

Unless we enforce a massive censorship similar to what China has or have a living standard fully subsidized and free of all taxes like that seen in the Gulf states, such authoritarianism would just destroy the country in the long term.

You have valid point. Problem is, and talking in present tense, we are far in our journey and things have already happened. Unfortunately its repair work from here. The only way to avoid any massive unrest after she is gone is either she prepares someone like herself as replacement or take the country back to an absolutely democratical election process in the next term (which I think is unlikely).

So I share your concern but currently nothing is going to change. All we can do is hope Bangladesh reaches a strong economical position and some visionary leader takes it from there. We have to live with what we got now and make sure we dont go worse from there.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

As for Hasina, it's now the time to panic....

She's making too many enemies at too fast a rate....

By practically abolishing political opponents she's letting all the animosity brew inside her own base...

And, she's getting too much over confident....

Wish her the best of luck...

 

[Nilgiri]

The reality is food, shelter, cloth, treatment, and education are the basic needs of human being, democracy is not.

Freedom (which is what democracy is in the end) most certainly is a basic need of a human being.

Even taking your argument, for argument sake...

The problem with BAL is they are trying to hold up two ends of such argument at same time.

If BD is doing so well as they say (in delivery of food, shelter etc)....surely the voice and choice of people can be indulged and respected politically as the next step?

Or is BD not doing as well as they say? In which case shouldn't again people be allowed to choose their leaders to address that and play them against each other?

What you cannot be saying is that BD is doing great and will keep doing much better AND use the "we know the greater good" on top....like BAL is currently doing as excuse for power control.

I mean how would you even know how people are doing in the end in reality (regarding that food and shelter)?...if the govt is the one controlling all the data and information regarding that in first place (and then lets no avenue for the people to replace them?)

At some point you have to have a system where people can voice their political choices without making it so brittle you create a polarised situation that only a civil conflict/war can address. You saw what such a conflict can do already (in creating your country in first place)....and you want another so recklessly (and for something quite internal and addressable)? What you think going to happen to BD if SHW is gone? @Mage already said just what it could look like...its not pretty.

This whole concept that poor people can be "bought" as though they cannot think for themselves properly is an authoritarian reckless one....and will destroy you in the end, more than you can imagine.

I used to share the same sentiment, not any more. You need to give them opportunity of free thought and free selection of leaders....you do not have Confucian disciplined order neither had a cultural revolution like china did....you are a naturally quarrelsome, rambunctious people compared to them.....and yet you want to charge head strong away from harnessing your natural strengths and adopt some foreign (weakly applicable) concept?

You will have to learn this sadly the hard way in the end....oh well.

@Skies @bluesky

 

[VikingRaider]

Freedom (which is what democracy is in the end) most certainly is a basic need of a human being.

Even taking your argument, for argument sake...

The problem with BAL is they are trying to hold up two ends of such argument at same time.

If BD is doing so well as they say (in delivery of food, shelter etc)....surely the voice and choice of people can be indulged and respected politically as the next step?

Or is BD not doing as well as they say? In which case shouldn't again people be allowed to choose their leaders to address that and play them against each other?

What you cannot be saying is that BD is doing great and will keep doing much better AND use the "we know the greater good" on top....like BAL is currently doing as excuse for power control.

I mean how would you even know how people are doing in the end in reality (regarding that food and shelter)?...if the govt is the one controlling all the data and information regarding that in first place (and then lets no avenue for the people to replace them?)

At some point you have to have a system where people can voice their political choices without making it so brittle you create a polarised situation that only a civil conflict/war can address. You saw what such a conflict can do already (in creating your country in first place)....and you want another so recklessly (and for something quite internal and addressable)? What you think going to happen to BD if SHW is gone? @Mage already said just what it could look like...its not pretty.

This whole concept that poor people can be "bought" as though they cannot think for themselves properly is an authoritarian reckless one....and will destroy you in the end, more than you can imagine.

I used to share the same sentiment, not any more. You need to give them opportunity of free thought and free selection of leaders....you do not have Confucian disciplined order neither had a cultural revolution like china did....you are a naturally quarrelsome, rambunctious people compared to them.....and yet you want to charge head strong away from harnessing your natural strengths and adopt some foreign (weakly applicable) concept?

You will have to learn this sadly the hard way in the end....oh well.

@Skies @bluesky

I will write my full reply , but first let me ask you a question. What is actually democracy . How would you define it ? Please be specific, and try to reply it in one or two sentences.
And first @Skies must respond to my post #12 where I suggested proportional representation system for Bangladesh in order to qualify here . Same goes for marked AL supporters.

Opinion of @bluesky is always appreciated and more than welcome though, as IMHO he is neutral .
@Mage is also very welcome in democratic case without responding #12 as although he is AL supporter, yet he is not senseless like others.

As I already spoke for democracy ( at past and now too in #12) , but by not considering it as sacred scriptures like Quran, Bible or Vedas that can't be altered for a short time.
Okay please start with the definition of democracy first. Or what is the goal of democracy.
I will be back in few hours, as I have to travel now.

 

[Skies]

What you cannot be saying is that BD is doing great and will keep doing much better AND use the "we know the greater good" on top....like BAL is currently doing as excuse for power control.

I mean how would you even know how people are doing in the end in reality (regarding that food and shelter)?...if the govt is the one controlling all the data and information regarding that in first place (and then lets no avenue for the people to replace them?)

At some point you have to have a system where people can voice their political choices without making it so brittle you create a polarised situation that only a civil conflict/war can address.

They are acting, and some are showing themselves to be good by shading crocodile tears by showing that the election was not fair.

Now they are on the side of 'might is right'. I know they will change this tone, if they are on the opposite side or suppressed.

Just imagine I have golds and diamonds, but no freedom!

The necessity of food, shelter, cloth, treatment are for the bodily needs only, but the education and freedom of expression matter equally because of the fact that you are most intelligent creation.

Humans are not cow or chicken which need food, shelter, cloth and treatment only.

Those who are saying so are the bunch of hypocrites, corrupted minded (or stupid) and illegal beneficiary of BAL.

Plus BD is not a welfare state like Saudi, Kuwait, or China where if not the freedom, at least all citizens are equally the beneficiary of the government's facilities. But here in BD you cannot avail many certain facilities if you are not BAL supporter. For example, you will not get help from the court, police and army if you complain against any BAL.

 

[Nilgiri]

I will write my full reply , but first let me ask you a question. What is actually democracy . How would you define it ? Please be specific, and try to reply it in one or two sentences.
And first @Skies must respond to my post #12 where I suggested proportional representation system for Bangladesh in order to qualify here . Same goes for marked AL supporters.

Opinion of @bluesky is always appreciated though, as IMHO he is neutral .
@Mage is also very welcome in democratic case without responding #12 as although he is AL supporter, yet he is not senseless like others.

As I already spoke for democracy ( at past and now too in #12) , but by not considering it as sacred scriptures like Quran, Bible or Vedas that can't be altered for a short time.
Okay please start with the definition of democracy first. Or what is the goal of democracy.
I will be back in few hours, as I have to travel now.

Democracy is the freedom of the population to choose who govern them....quite simply. "Demos" literally means people in greek.

They are acting, and some are showing themselves to be good by shading crocodile tears by showing that the election was not fair.

Now they are on the side of 'might is right'. I know they will change this tone, if they are on the opposite side or suppressed.

Just imagine I have golds and diamonds, but no freedom!

The necessity of food, shelter, cloth, treatment are for the bodily needs only, but the education and freedom of expression matter equally because of the fact that you are most intelligent creation.

Humans are not cow or chicken which need food, shelter, cloth and treatment only.

Those who are saying so are the bunch of hypocrites, corrupted minded (or stupid) and illegal beneficiary of BAL.

Plus BD is not a welfare state like Saudi, Kuwait, or China where if not the freedom, at least all citizens are equally the beneficiary of the government's facilities. But here in BD you cannot avail many certain facilities if you are not BAL supporter. For example, you will not get help from the court, police and army if you complain against any BAL.

Yes, I am always concerned with slippery slope arguments in general.

If exception against any basic freedom can be made initally for X...what is to stop it from expanding then to Y and Z etc....and how would there even be a (peaceful, civilised) recourse to stopping and reversing such a thing.

In the end it basically boils down to is it an inherent (God-given) right for people to choose who best leads and represents them?

Are we free souls under God?...or to be ruled as other men say we should be ruled?

 

[Super Falcon]

Election in banlgladesh were not freevand fair it is dictatorship in Bangladesh

 

[Skies]

Democracy is to let me vote to elect my representative.
-Skies

I believe in equal right irrespective of my believe and background like in USA and Canada.

In Bangladesh, I do not have issue with free-sex/living together, and also do not have issues with Islamic rule or Jamaties. As long as the right to elect is preserved.

 

[Skies]

And first @Skies must respond to my post #12 where I suggested proportional representation system for Bangladesh in order to qualify here .

I agree with the post #13 quoted below.

First we need to make sure people can choose and vote in whatever form of government we have. That is the most important part.

But before that we have to educate people about the systems such as proportional representation that we discussed before and their pros and cons by making videos.

But there is no environment to make awareness and educate people now.

 

[VikingRaider]

Democracy is the freedom of the population to choose who govern them....quite simply. "Demos" literally means people in greek.

Can write short replies with mobile. So will not go for details. I suppose you wanted to say majority of population right?
Here is the results of elections of Bangladesh .
1991, 1996, 2001, 2008. Other than 2008 election, even as qualition no one got the mandate of majority population, yet they ruled. 2001 was worse in this sense . BNP Jamat qualition got 45.5% vote of peoples and got 210 seat is parliament, AL hot 40.2% vote in parliament , and got 62 seat.
54.5% peoples didn't vote for BNP Jamat qualition to rule, yet they not only ruled but ruled with brute majority.
So according to your own definition, this is not democracy.
However I read someone's lecture on democracy in another comment, and he already proclaimed that 2008 election that also was held under a caretaker govt was a rigged election by military . He only said because his party lost badly, yet pretending to be neutral.
So according to them the definition of democracy is when I win, it's free and fair , democracy, and when others wins, it's rigged.
And if a group of peoples are trying to analyse then they are tagged. However that's common old cheap dirt tricks of the Bengali population. But as I said I am not directly talking to them unless they respond to my post regarding proportional representation (#12).

Finally according to the definition of democracy on 2008 election AL led grand alliance won and their total votes were 57.2% ( majority voted for the alliance) under a caretaker govt, yet it is rigged election because AL ( their opposition) won .

But before that we have to educate people about the systems such as proportional representation that we discussed before and their pros and cons by making videos.

But there is no environment to make awareness and educate people now.

Well thanks that you responded . Okay good . Hmm it's a long way to go. But current parliamentary bogus can't be the alternative, and here you can get only 62 and 32 seats ( of 300) , although you got 40.2% and 33.8% vote.
I hope you understand what I am talking about.
The system is foul, and it's not a scripture that can't be altered.
PS: @Nilgiri, @Skies, if you still believe that this flawed Westminster system is fine until we can't make our peoples properly educated, then please let's try to do this. I will use your democratic spells against you.
Nothing is happening against this current flawed Westminster system, as according to our constitution , two thirds can make amendment in our constitution ( article 142), so abolition of caretaker govt is also a part of this system since in 2008 AL got two thirds under a caretaker govt and according to constitution, it gave them the right to make this amendment.
So first we need to change this system , otherwise debate is useless in the end .

and also do not have issues with Islamic rule or Jamaties.

I also have no issue with islamic parties , but I have issues with militant party . And you are talking as intellectual's tone,and I am trying to talk in the tone of common peoples, who existed before the age of democracy and still democracy play a very minor role in their life.
They want food first and shelter, politics play little to no role in their life. They still love siraj uddoula and Mughal emperors more than Hasina and khaleda.
Still I want democracy , but in its right forms, and the right form should be amended over time according to needs of society .

 

[Mage]

Freedom (which is what democracy is in the end) most certainly is a basic need of a human being.

People in Bangladesh have freedom other than political freedom. Will you say, freedom to choose govt is a basic need?

Not to many only majority gets to chose as minority's choice is sidelined.

BD's constitution allows a govt with super majority to be autocratic anyway.

If BD is doing so well as they say (in delivery of food, shelter etc)....surely the voice and choice of people can be indulged and respected politically as the next step?

Or is BD not doing as well as they say? In which case shouldn't again people be allowed to choose their leaders to address that and play them against each other?

BD is doing good, but not as good as they say. But in Bangladesh, elections are not won by good works. People always likes change. And massive anti-incumbency sentiment has built up in past 10 years. Hooliganism of BCL have played a big part here. Although with BNP in power, Shibir or BNP's student wing would have done the same. And another point is there are a good number of people who would not give credit to govt no matter what. You can take a look at skies. He admitted BD is doing better than Pak. But added that there is zero contribution of AL.

BD never had good democracy. Mujib, Zia, Ershsd were all autocrats. It was some sort of democracy from 1991-2013. But again, the constitution allows super majority govt to be autocratic.

We are in a vicious cycle. Getting out of this cycle unscathed will be very difficult.

 

[Nilgiri]

54.5% peoples didn't vote for BNP Jamat qualition to rule

So? You speak as though this is supposed to be a purely binary choice of A and B....that by choosing A, you are rejecting the totality of B (which is not true in many cases). If you want to know just how many cases that is, then the system can be refined and improved...rather than saying its imperfect and thus its fine to abuse it completely by outright rigging.

This is still not any argument you have against democracy. If westminster system is not your cup of tea, then so be it (onus is really on BD society to make more than just 2 major political parties). Its heck of a lot better still than a dictator....for essentially a very unruly mob of people who succeed by arguing and clashing when needed...rather than be told whats good for them and repressed on it.

Major industrialisation came to TN, because there were 2 parties switching power (by very much same FPTP) constantly in the 90s and 2000s...because of fair competition and basic institution development and trust/credibility over time. Having some dictator there rigging everything (and then outputting data on paper as everything getting better, however the reality might or might not be)...would have been a severe blow towards that. I don't think BD people of today are that much better or worse ("pay-off" potential wise) than the average Tamil (unruly mob) voter back in 90s....so shouldn't they have the same opportunity to start the process rolling of getting to genuine democracy?...instead of being forced by just few people to take several steps back on it?

You tell me now, how are you going to hold Hasina/BAL feet to the fire without completely starting a war (which need BD military coup etc)? The better options have been completely suppressed...till you have just this last resort domino chain waiting for wind to start blowing hard enough.....its not good.

However I read someone's lecture on democracy in another comment, and he already proclaimed that 2008 election that also was held under a caretaker govt was a rigged election by military . He only said because his party lost badly, yet pretending to be neutral.
So according to them the definition of democracy is when I win, it's free and fair , democracy, and when others wins, it's rigged.

Can't comment as I don't know that election's history/details that well. But the answer is to improve the institutions in the end...to the level that no party sounds credible when they accuse rigging. Its not hard...I discussed the options and statistics involved with mage earlier.

Put yourself in other guys shoes....if BNP were the one holding power and strangulating/rigging like was done just now (and enough group of people perceive development/improvement in what they see as important for BD)....would you still say democracy FPTP is imperfect system anyway....so stability wise, its fine?

Both and all major parties have to sit down and work this fundamental thing out.....playing winner takes all is fun while you are in the gaming venue....till you step outside to go home....and the ppl you took everything from...are standing there waiting for you with sticks. You can guess what happens next.

if you still believe that this flawed Westminster system is fine

It being perfect or imperfect is not even the issue dude. It is your institutions and crediblity first...having presidential system right now with just as faulty institution underneath it would be just equally as bad. Its like commenting on whether glass or concrete building is better....when you have chosen a quicksand area to build it on. The issue is to find and clear suitable place (that can hold the weight and you can sink foundations into) first....then we can talk the building.

 

[Skies]

You can take a look at skies. He admitted BD is doing better than Pak. But added that there is zero contribution of AL.

Actually, IMO, since 2005/2006, the fast penetration of internet connectivity has brought a huge change in BD by empowering the common people with knowledge. For instance, at that time some people from the places where internet was not available would ask me to for information because I had internet. Now, no one ask.

I think because of internet connectivity, the growth of BD has increased and for more global market integration over time. No matter which govt were there, it would happen over time.

And the the garment, pharmaceutical, shipping, freelancing industries have increased growth as like any business grows over time. These are private sectors that have grown by their own.

On the other hand, I can see that BAL has destroyed all the instituts in last 10 years which is a barrier to the growth of BD.

However, I will admit that BAL follows innovation, and BNP was less capable of innovation. But I think this gap will not remain in future, as I think BNP has learnt from BAL. BNP needs more capable think tanks.

Once they can come to power, then I will give them 100 innovative ideas everyday, and people will forget at if BAL did anything important in past.

 

[Nilgiri]

People in Bangladesh have freedom other than political freedom. Will you say, freedom to choose govt is a basic need?

If the govt is interfering big time in your day to day life...you bet your bottom dollar choosing and disciplining that interference is a basic freedom that every citizen should have the right to exercise.

If the govt is limited in such, the need for the scale of freedom in controlling it scales back conceptually as well (though ideally its best to have such a scale of freedom always present...should the govt genie get out of its bottle later).

Not to many only majority gets to chose as minority's choice is sidelined.

Then the minority better make a better argument (and then deliver upon) to the people so they can be a majority stakeholder the next time around.

BD's constitution allows a govt with super majority to be autocratic anyway.

That's a different conversation regarding a specific constitution....rather than the broad concept of democracy I am going on about here.

BD is doing good, but not as good as they say. But in Bangladesh, elections are not won by good works. People always likes change. And massive anti-incumbency sentiment has built up in past 10 years. Hooliganism of BCL have played a big part here. Although with BNP in power, Shibir or BNP's student wing would have done the same. And another point is there are a good number of people who would not give credit to govt no matter what. You can take a look at skies. He admitted BD is doing better than Pak. But added that there is zero contribution of AL.

I get that both sides are sullied...point is both sides are investures of the BD people in the end....there should be an appropriate arena for them to fight, win and take the laurel...and if lose...to live another day and fight again for it. It is only through such renewal that confidence, trust and respect is established...and more contestants join over time to compete (recognizing they have a fair shot at winning as well) and the emanciated brutal history of the combatants (that sullied them in the first place) becomes a thing of the past over time.

How you don't go about it, is invite the opponent and then rig the game so you win....just because you can. Its fun in the short term maybe, long term always bloody and destructive (esp as you are forced to keep propping it up and covering your tracks down the road).

You can be as smart and shrewd, even as successful as you have proven to the unruly mob. Caesar was all of that (the guy basically in a way achieved something like Bangladesh conquering India and China in his time and scale)....but he got assassinated in the end....because he was simply perceived to be usurping/rigging to gain an absolute power of the scale of an earlier era....where the "greater good" could simply be stated by one rather than debated by many. Hasina is no Caesar and she has definitely moved well past mere perception of a power grab. No bueno.

BD never had good democracy. Mujib, Zia, Ershsd were all autocrats. It was some sort of democracy from 1991-2013. But again, the constitution allows super majority govt to be autocratic.

Hence my argument of institutions...maybe a constitution rewrite (with this hardcoded into it) is needed too. But now it seems a complete bloody revolution is needed to even get to a proper sounding board stage for it.

We are in a vicious cycle. Getting out of this cycle unscathed will be very difficult.

Right. But you can take solace this is no different to how it is in the world more broadly....human beings are deep down pretty much the same kinda stuff everywhere.

 

[Skies]

It being perfect or imperfect is not even the issue dude. It is your institutions and crediblity first..

He is too much beating around the bush instead of talking on the points that r important.