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Uncertain economy problems.

Its not wishful thinking its simple maths
Oil is not going to stay at 120$ this artifical low supply state by blocking four largest oil producers isnt going to stay for ever
I'm sure the mathematics is simple. I'm not saying the mathematics is difficult, obviously. I am saying that everyone could see where the oil prices were going. Nobody in their right mind thought that oil would be $50. Which is why I am arguing that this is wishful thinking.

There's a lot of people that think that besides the usual fluctuations oil is not going to go down in any meaningful way for a long time:
So yeah, forever? Probably not. Foreseeable future? Probably yes.

And yeah oil prices are almost always controlled by artificial supply controls. It's literally what OPEC does. So I don't see why this $120 is especially because of artificial supply shortage.

Exports and remittences growth outpaced imports FOR THE FIRST TIME in last 20 years
Exports yes. That's a great thing.

Remittances. I don't think that Pakistan's economy should rely so heavily on these.
A. These can be fickle and dry up for a variety of reasons so we are exposing our economy to externalities
B. High remittances basically mean that we've failed to provide jobs for a large working population. In a way our number one export is human resource. This might have been ok if remittances were not so significant to our budget.

PTI didnt lag in refroms in its foreign stability part
I maintain that PTI was doing what you said up until Shaukat Tarin was brought in because PTI decided that it couldn't bear the political cost of all of the stabilization that was needed and being done by Hafeez Shiekh. I think that was a misstep for Pakistan's economy that I understand based on politics.


Its biggets failure was reforms in taxation/revenue side and we all know why that happened..noone will allow any political party to tax the elite
No arguments there friend. I've been saying the same.

Oh boy. I have attracted a lot of animosity and unfair treatment simply for saying this. :D
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Interesting that your advice comes to "they just need to let go", which sounds fine in theory, but truly a devil to think about implementation. That is the dilemma, even if they agree to let go, just how do they do it, and to whom? Decades of policies have left no other institution in any shape to bear this responsibility your solution is placing on them.

My views are simply to recognize the system for what it is in reality, and work with it wherever possible. That is far more feasible IMO.
I do see your point. And I wouldn't want to be the one making the decision.

This of course begs the question; how are you proposing that the handoff happens exactly?
 
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how are you proposing that the handoff happens exactly?

I am actually not proposing such a handoff. It is simply not possible for the foreseeable future. My solution is to recognize the system for what it is in reality, and work with it wherever possible for small increments of betterment, and leave the major steps for an unspecified future time when appreciable progress has been made.
 
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I didn't know which thread to move our discussion to and this felt like a good enough thread.


@PakFactor @VCheng @SQ8
Good question but there's a reasonable explanation. The "British Raj spiritual successor" moniker warrants more explanation.

First of all, this desi raj (let's call it that), is not coming from a place of malice. As much as that would make it easy to explain things but as you point out that introduces some other logical holes. The pre partition Indian Army was heavily Britishized. These desi officers were given perks and privileges above the local populace. This bred a sense of superiority in them, which served to keep them in line and not revolting. After partition, India inherited almost all of the institutions of the Raj and so the military-(civilian) government balance was more or less the way the British left it. On the other hand in Pakistan, there were no institutions to speak of. The westernized military leadership made an analysis that they continued to make for 70 years that
"These people are incompetent and don't know what is best for them".
THAT is the source of this raj - not some desire to rule/extract/colonize.

The culture is such that the military has a sense of superiority (inherited from the pre partition Indian Army) over the local population. This leads to several statements that will sound awfully familiar to you and some aren't even directly given by the military but have been internalized by a segment of the population:
1. The people are jahil and don't know what's best for them.
2. Democracy cannot work in a country like this.
3. The people sell their votes for qeemay walay naan they can't be trusted with the right to vote.
4. A strong central government (sometimes dictator) is needed to keep these jahil awam in check.
5. These people are too jahil to run any form of local government.
6. We the raj need to show these people what the right path is.
7. All politicians are thieves and want to destroy Pakistan.

Here's the scary part. You probably just resonated with some of the above points. I am saying this because I did too. Many readers will and still do. But think about it a little. Don't these sound EXACTLY like the things the British Raj used to say about us South Asians to deny us any franchise?????? The desi raj is actually coming from a place of good intentions but the above is what they are thinking. Explains the whole bloody civilian attitude that is so strong in Pakistan too.

What about internalization? Well, these desi raj officers have had children and their children obviously mirror their views in most cases. Over three generations a large portion of our upper middle class (upper middle class because of their desi raj privilege of course) has come to have the above views. I count myself in this too. Being the son of a generational army officer I am not denying that I have benefited from the status quo and have had the same view of the people above. So there's a upper-middle class in Pakistan that basically despises the lower class. Evidence of this can be seen by the amount of people that agree to the above 6 points. These views have been reinforced by the decades of direct military control with the dictators openly saying and reinforcing the above points. So it is my opinion that these people are primarily what make up PTI voters. The theory fits nicely. These were people that didn't believe in democracy or voting until PTI showed up (points 1-3). They had a celebrity savior and not a traditional politician who was calling everyone else chor (point 7). So this makes me believe very strongly that IK is a project of the desi raj to have an internationally acceptable version of their views.

The problem is that our desi raj keeps making monsters that it can't control. Taliban, MQM, TLP, and now PTI. PTI clearly does not believe in the sanctity of democracy. They view 65% of Pakistan's population as jahil awam that sells their vote for qeemay walay naan so their vote doesn't count. The only good votes are the ones for PTI and every other vote is a "traitor/chor/jahil" vote. So you have a party that believes in the "above democracy" beliefs of the desi raj but is put in a democracy. Of course they will try to do unconstitutional system breaking things like dissolving assembly when theyre about to lose vote of no confidence because the 65% of Pakistan that voted for PPP and PMLN is jahil and doesn't know what theyre doing.

All of this brings us to the current situation. PTI was supported into power by the desi raj because they thought they would be their civilian brothers. It was well intentioned. They would finally have a civilian government that they could hand off things to. But of course, IK sahb started to believe that he was the head of the desi raj and forgot how he is a pawn in this game and was shown his place. The desi raj is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one hand theyve been telling us for 70 years that politicians are chor and and traitors and on the other hand they are forced to sit with the same politicians because their little experiment of IK was inexperienced and wanted to control them.

So this should explain why I'm not pro PTI like a lot of people on this forum. I see PTI as yet another desi raj experiment gone wrong. I think its a dangerous thing because PTI's current politics threatens the stability of Pakistan because they and their voter honestly believes that 65% of Pakistan is a chor and/or traitor. You can't build nations with divisions like that. This doesn't mean that I am for the corruption of our politicians and desi raj. But those things are secondary to the stability of Pakistan. To me, PTI PPP PMLN are the spokes of the same wheel with the desi raj at the center.

So to answer your question:
why don't they care about their country enough to make the right decisions?

They care deeply about the country. They just don't believe that the people of Pakistan are smart enough to make decisions for themselves and they keep trying to control Pakistan in unsustainable and dangerous ways. Like a child holding on to a bird too tight because he loves it too much but doesn't realize that he's killing it.


A tangent on corruption:
Corruption in Pakistan is real and legal (I agree with Shabbar Zaidi). These politicians have literally legalized corruption so there is really no way to hold them accountable in courts. Which is why I think IK's anti-corruption mantra feels like truck ki batti to me. Either he is naive or deceptive. Pakistan needs structural changes like digitization to tackle corruption. Simply having an honest man on top is clearly not enough.










I would like your views on what I have written above. Maybe I will be able to convince you of something. Maybe @PanzerKiel will also understand some of the things that I said even though I said a lot of negative things about his service. But I do say that their control comes from a place of good intentions. They just need to let go. And they seem to be letting go of their latest experiment at least. Let's hope the experiment doesn't explode too badly.




Read my views above. He's a victim of smoking his own desi raj product.

As far as economics are concerned every political party can make cherry picked figures like that. Yes PTI did some great things but so did PMLN and PPP. Let's not think PTI was some God-sent. They were an experiment in civilian desi raj that smoked their own product. But let's hope they can let that go and try to be an political party that believes in democracy in Pakistan and work with the remaining 65% of the country to solve the country's problems.

I was out for the weekend give me sometime to clear my desk and read and will respond.
 
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