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Uncertain economy problems.

Omar Moazzam Batta

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Who is responsible for the current economy problem? Why our country is going to bankrupt? Before coming in power same people promised that they would decrease inflation rate, where are that promises? Poverty is increasing which leads to increase in crimes. Petrol prices are getting globally high but main thing if PTI government was giving subsidy by going against IMF, so why they are not giving the subsidy? Why they are not contacting Russia to import fuel in cheaper prices, is it because they don't want to make America sad? How much they can buy everything in 2000 Rs is given by this incompetent govt? Our treasure falls to single digit and our foreign reserves is also depreciating. Federal finance minister is also an illiterate man who doesn't know about economy that much. Large textile mills and some other transport services are shutting down, what's the reason behind this?
 
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Who is responsible for the current economy problem? Why our country is going to bankrupt? Before coming in power same people promised that they would decrease inflation rate, where are that promises? Poverty is increasing which leads to increase in crimes. Petrol prices are getting globally high but main thing if PTI government was giving subsidy by going against IMF, so why they are not giving the subsidy? Why they are not contacting Russia to import fuel in cheaper prices, is it because they don't want to make America sad? How much they can buy everything in 2000 Rs is given by this incompetent govt? Our treasure falls to single digit and our foreign reserves is also depreciating. Federal finance minister is also an illiterate man who doesn't know about economy that much. Large textile mills and some other transport services are shutting down, what's the reason behind this?

Because of Imported government of beggars can't be choosers... special Thanks to treasonous establishment...
 
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Who is responsible for the current economy problem? Why our country is going to bankrupt? Before coming in power same people promised that they would decrease inflation rate, where are that promises? Poverty is increasing which leads to increase in crimes. Petrol prices are getting globally high but main thing if PTI government was giving subsidy by going against IMF, so why they are not giving the subsidy? Why they are not contacting Russia to import fuel in cheaper prices, is it because they don't want to make America sad? How much they can buy everything in 2000 Rs is given by this incompetent govt? Our treasure falls to single digit and our foreign reserves is also depreciating. Federal finance minister is also an illiterate man who doesn't know about economy that much. Large textile mills and some other transport services are shutting down, what's the reason behind this?
Because for decades and decades (yes decades) Pakistan has financed its growth through imports and consumption. What this means is that Pakistan (in one way or the other) has encouraged imports so that people can consume more, and this is one way to achieve growth. The problem with this approach is that Pakistan also needs to earn dollars to pay for these imports. But because Pakistan has been spending more than it can produce, everytime Pakistan's growth goes above 5% there is a crises of inflation and low reserves. We produce/export very little but want to import a lot. Each year we make the difference up with loans. The terms of these loans getting worse (higher interest rate) because our ability to pay back the loans becomes more suspect as our economy worsens.

In simple words there is no free lunch. Pakistan, as a country, has been living beyond its means for decades. American aid during the 80s and 2000s allowed Pakistan to persist in this "beggar" mode but you see the boom-bust cycle regularly. There was no boom cycle this time because we had no American aid this time. So Pakistan is going through a reality check this past decade.

Remember those loans we need to finance our country? IMF's role is to provide a small loan to Pakistan and more importantly certify to the rest of the world that Pakistan is good for loans because we are asking them to do reforms to fix their economy. Unfortunately, Pakistan has completed few IMF programs because:
1. We have unimaginative planners that ask IMF to give us policies without proposing our own
2. IMF recommends unpopular measures and Pakistan agrees first few years then leaves program without finishing reforms.
So what has been happening for decades is that IMF certifies Pakistan's goodness for loans, Pakistan takes tonnes of loans, then Pakistan abandons IMF program and doesn't do any of the reforms needed for fixing the structural problems of Pakistan's economy.

One of the reasons that successive Pakistani governments have been unable to do the difficult but necessary reforms is elite capture and the kinds of things our elite puts money in. Our elite (politicians generals judges businessmen malikriaztypes) have ensured laws such that there is little to no tax on property/land and these people are the biggest landowners and decision makers. An X amount of money invested in land produces nothing in the economy. The same X amount if used to start a factory can produce jobs and exports. Starting and running business is highly taxed and complicated compared to property. So everyone with money buys plots (I am sure you can relate). Land in Pakistan is an unproductive asset that can't be exported. Roughly speaking this real estate bubble is being funded by the loans being burdened on the poor Pakistan and the tax that they pay on petrol for example. Other countries also have elite capture: most famously South Korea. But their elite has invested into Hyundai and Samsung. Sure there is wealth inequality but the capital in the country is being used for productive things as opposed to Pakistan where it only fuels speculation nothing else.
 
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Who is responsible for the current economy problem? Why our country is going to bankrupt? Before coming in power same people promised that they would decrease inflation rate, where are that promises? Poverty is increasing which leads to increase in crimes. Petrol prices are getting globally high but main thing if PTI government was giving subsidy by going against IMF, so why they are not giving the subsidy? Why they are not contacting Russia to import fuel in cheaper prices, is it because they don't want to make America sad? How much they can buy everything in 2000 Rs is given by this incompetent govt? Our treasure falls to single digit and our foreign reserves is also depreciating. Federal finance minister is also an illiterate man who doesn't know about economy that much. Large textile mills and some other transport services are shutting down, what's the reason behind this?
Everyone know who is responsible
 
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1654994724604.png
 
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I didn't know which thread to move our discussion to and this felt like a good enough thread.

I understand your point, but the thing that escapes me is -- why don't they care about their country enough to make the right decisions?

There's inequality, classism, injustice, etc, in the United States too. Yet, at a macro-level, the U.S. has kept moving forward. The leaders of the U.S. rarely made self-destructive (for a nation) decisions. The big one was probably opening up to China, but it was a mistake in hindsight.

What's missing among Pakistan's leaders (especially the Army leadership)? How do they lack vision? Why do they lack the ambition to "look outwards" and compete with other nations?
@PakFactor @VCheng @SQ8
Good question but there's a reasonable explanation. The "British Raj spiritual successor" moniker warrants more explanation.

First of all, this desi raj (let's call it that), is not coming from a place of malice. As much as that would make it easy to explain things but as you point out that introduces some other logical holes. The pre partition Indian Army was heavily Britishized. These desi officers were given perks and privileges above the local populace. This bred a sense of superiority in them, which served to keep them in line and not revolting. After partition, India inherited almost all of the institutions of the Raj and so the military-(civilian) government balance was more or less the way the British left it. On the other hand in Pakistan, there were no institutions to speak of. The westernized military leadership made an analysis that they continued to make for 70 years that
"These people are incompetent and don't know what is best for them".
THAT is the source of this raj - not some desire to rule/extract/colonize.

The culture is such that the military has a sense of superiority (inherited from the pre partition Indian Army) over the local population. This leads to several statements that will sound awfully familiar to you and some aren't even directly given by the military but have been internalized by a segment of the population:
1. The people are jahil and don't know what's best for them.
2. Democracy cannot work in a country like this.
3. The people sell their votes for qeemay walay naan they can't be trusted with the right to vote.
4. A strong central government (sometimes dictator) is needed to keep these jahil awam in check.
5. These people are too jahil to run any form of local government.
6. We the raj need to show these people what the right path is.
7. All politicians are thieves and want to destroy Pakistan.

Here's the scary part. You probably just resonated with some of the above points. I am saying this because I did too. Many readers will and still do. But think about it a little. Don't these sound EXACTLY like the things the British Raj used to say about us South Asians to deny us any franchise?????? The desi raj is actually coming from a place of good intentions but the above is what they are thinking. Explains the whole bloody civilian attitude that is so strong in Pakistan too.

What about internalization? Well, these desi raj officers have had children and their children obviously mirror their views in most cases. Over three generations a large portion of our upper middle class (upper middle class because of their desi raj privilege of course) has come to have the above views. I count myself in this too. Being the son of a generational army officer I am not denying that I have benefited from the status quo and have had the same view of the people above. So there's a upper-middle class in Pakistan that basically despises the lower class. Evidence of this can be seen by the amount of people that agree to the above 6 points. These views have been reinforced by the decades of direct military control with the dictators openly saying and reinforcing the above points. So it is my opinion that these people are primarily what make up PTI voters. The theory fits nicely. These were people that didn't believe in democracy or voting until PTI showed up (points 1-3). They had a celebrity savior and not a traditional politician who was calling everyone else chor (point 7). So this makes me believe very strongly that IK is a project of the desi raj to have an internationally acceptable version of their views.

The problem is that our desi raj keeps making monsters that it can't control. Taliban, MQM, TLP, and now PTI. PTI clearly does not believe in the sanctity of democracy. They view 65% of Pakistan's population as jahil awam that sells their vote for qeemay walay naan so their vote doesn't count. The only good votes are the ones for PTI and every other vote is a "traitor/chor/jahil" vote. So you have a party that believes in the "above democracy" beliefs of the desi raj but is put in a democracy. Of course they will try to do unconstitutional system breaking things like dissolving assembly when theyre about to lose vote of no confidence because the 65% of Pakistan that voted for PPP and PMLN is jahil and doesn't know what theyre doing.

All of this brings us to the current situation. PTI was supported into power by the desi raj because they thought they would be their civilian brothers. It was well intentioned. They would finally have a civilian government that they could hand off things to. But of course, IK sahb started to believe that he was the head of the desi raj and forgot how he is a pawn in this game and was shown his place. The desi raj is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one hand theyve been telling us for 70 years that politicians are chor and and traitors and on the other hand they are forced to sit with the same politicians because their little experiment of IK was inexperienced and wanted to control them.

So this should explain why I'm not pro PTI like a lot of people on this forum. I see PTI as yet another desi raj experiment gone wrong. I think its a dangerous thing because PTI's current politics threatens the stability of Pakistan because they and their voter honestly believes that 65% of Pakistan is a chor and/or traitor. You can't build nations with divisions like that. This doesn't mean that I am for the corruption of our politicians and desi raj. But those things are secondary to the stability of Pakistan. To me, PTI PPP PMLN are the spokes of the same wheel with the desi raj at the center.

So to answer your question:
why don't they care about their country enough to make the right decisions?

They care deeply about the country. They just don't believe that the people of Pakistan are smart enough to make decisions for themselves and they keep trying to control Pakistan in unsustainable and dangerous ways. Like a child holding on to a bird too tight because he loves it too much but doesn't realize that he's killing it.


A tangent on corruption:
Corruption in Pakistan is real and legal (I agree with Shabbar Zaidi). These politicians have literally legalized corruption so there is really no way to hold them accountable in courts. Which is why I think IK's anti-corruption mantra feels like truck ki batti to me. Either he is naive or deceptive. Pakistan needs structural changes like digitization to tackle corruption. Simply having an honest man on top is clearly not enough.








same feeling here I too feel as something is lost, something is missing, betrayed & abandoned.

I just lost respect I used to have for defence forces of Pakistan .... & you know one of biggest wish I have in my life is to severely abuse Bajwa & his team face to face, while are present in their Full Ceremonial Uniform.

I really want to do this even If I have to pay the price of this act with Life.

@PanzerKiel .... I am really sorry that I am tagging you in this post ... but I just want you to know the feelings that many people now have even personally I feel like ke main rona chata hoo cheek cheek ker main Qasam khaney ke liya tyar hoo iis baat per, magr rona nahi ataa, aik ghutaan hai, ajeeb bohat ajeeb feelings hai, jase koi cheez halaq main pans gai hoo .... ajeeb mental situation hain meri sach mani agar koi Army General mera samney ho tu I will spit on his face, & with all this feeling I have to act as normal individual who have healthy & positive mindset which is becoming difficult day by day.

Plz if possible pass this feelings this message to someone or anyone who is in superior position in Army, main kabi apni personal feeling and status share nahi ker ta 10 years of my stay on this forum and other defence forums are available as supportive evidence of this.

agreed but their value is same as the Nation they are trained and feed to be sold to the foreign powers for their interests.

I would like your views on what I have written above. Maybe I will be able to convince you of something. Maybe @PanzerKiel will also understand some of the things that I said even though I said a lot of negative things about his service. But I do say that their control comes from a place of good intentions. They just need to let go. And they seem to be letting go of their latest experiment at least. Let's hope the experiment doesn't explode too badly.



Read my views above. He's a victim of smoking his own desi raj product.

As far as economics are concerned every political party can make cherry picked figures like that. Yes PTI did some great things but so did PMLN and PPP. Let's not think PTI was some God-sent. They were an experiment in civilian desi raj that smoked their own product. But let's hope they can let that go and try to be an political party that believes in democracy in Pakistan and work with the remaining 65% of the country to solve the country's problems.
 
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Who is responsible for the current economy problem? Why our country is going to bankrupt? Before coming in power same people promised that they would decrease inflation rate, where are that promises? Poverty is increasing which leads to increase in crimes. Petrol prices are getting globally high but main thing if PTI government was giving subsidy by going against IMF, so why they are not giving the subsidy? Why they are not contacting Russia to import fuel in cheaper prices, is it because they don't want to make America sad? How much they can buy everything in 2000 Rs is given by this incompetent govt? Our treasure falls to single digit and our foreign reserves is also depreciating. Federal finance minister is also an illiterate man who doesn't know about economy that much. Large textile mills and some other transport services are shutting down, what's the reason behind this?

FTA with China needs to be stopped
 
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FTA with China needs to be stopped
Impose maximum tariff of 20 % based on WTO regulation =

More revenue to government
Less import
Giving incentive to local industry
FDI that focus on Pakistan market will likely come

-------------------------------

Others :

Maintain defense budget that is pro economic growth
Discourage cars ownership ( less imported fuels, less imported cars )- no oil subsidy for cars owned by individuals, subsidized oil must only go to motor cycle, public transportation, agriculture and logistic industries- impose the highest tax to imported cars.
Calculate CPEC thorougly, pay several respected consultants to make assessment on the project
Improve easiness to start a business
60 % Government spending should go to local products
Women education needs to be supported
 
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I didn't know which thread to move our discussion to and this felt like a good enough thread.


@PakFactor @VCheng @SQ8
Good question but there's a reasonable explanation. The "British Raj spiritual successor" moniker warrants more explanation.

First of all, this desi raj (let's call it that), is not coming from a place of malice. As much as that would make it easy to explain things but as you point out that introduces some other logical holes. The pre partition Indian Army was heavily Britishized. These desi officers were given perks and privileges above the local populace. This bred a sense of superiority in them, which served to keep them in line and not revolting. After partition, India inherited almost all of the institutions of the Raj and so the military-(civilian) government balance was more or less the way the British left it. On the other hand in Pakistan, there were no institutions to speak of. The westernized military leadership made an analysis that they continued to make for 70 years that
"These people are incompetent and don't know what is best for them".
THAT is the source of this raj - not some desire to rule/extract/colonize.

The culture is such that the military has a sense of superiority (inherited from the pre partition Indian Army) over the local population. This leads to several statements that will sound awfully familiar to you and some aren't even directly given by the military but have been internalized by a segment of the population:
1. The people are jahil and don't know what's best for them.
2. Democracy cannot work in a country like this.
3. The people sell their votes for qeemay walay naan they can't be trusted with the right to vote.
4. A strong central government (sometimes dictator) is needed to keep these jahil awam in check.
5. These people are too jahil to run any form of local government.
6. We the raj need to show these people what the right path is.
7. All politicians are thieves and want to destroy Pakistan.

Here's the scary part. You probably just resonated with some of the above points. I am saying this because I did too. Many readers will and still do. But think about it a little. Don't these sound EXACTLY like the things the British Raj used to say about us South Asians to deny us any franchise?????? The desi raj is actually coming from a place of good intentions but the above is what they are thinking. Explains the whole bloody civilian attitude that is so strong in Pakistan too.

What about internalization? Well, these desi raj officers have had children and their children obviously mirror their views in most cases. Over three generations a large portion of our upper middle class (upper middle class because of their desi raj privilege of course) has come to have the above views. I count myself in this too. Being the son of a generational army officer I am not denying that I have benefited from the status quo and have had the same view of the people above. So there's a upper-middle class in Pakistan that basically despises the lower class. Evidence of this can be seen by the amount of people that agree to the above 6 points. These views have been reinforced by the decades of direct military control with the dictators openly saying and reinforcing the above points. So it is my opinion that these people are primarily what make up PTI voters. The theory fits nicely. These were people that didn't believe in democracy or voting until PTI showed up (points 1-3). They had a celebrity savior and not a traditional politician who was calling everyone else chor (point 7). So this makes me believe very strongly that IK is a project of the desi raj to have an internationally acceptable version of their views.

The problem is that our desi raj keeps making monsters that it can't control. Taliban, MQM, TLP, and now PTI. PTI clearly does not believe in the sanctity of democracy. They view 65% of Pakistan's population as jahil awam that sells their vote for qeemay walay naan so their vote doesn't count. The only good votes are the ones for PTI and every other vote is a "traitor/chor/jahil" vote. So you have a party that believes in the "above democracy" beliefs of the desi raj but is put in a democracy. Of course they will try to do unconstitutional system breaking things like dissolving assembly when theyre about to lose vote of no confidence because the 65% of Pakistan that voted for PPP and PMLN is jahil and doesn't know what theyre doing.

All of this brings us to the current situation. PTI was supported into power by the desi raj because they thought they would be their civilian brothers. It was well intentioned. They would finally have a civilian government that they could hand off things to. But of course, IK sahb started to believe that he was the head of the desi raj and forgot how he is a pawn in this game and was shown his place. The desi raj is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one hand theyve been telling us for 70 years that politicians are chor and and traitors and on the other hand they are forced to sit with the same politicians because their little experiment of IK was inexperienced and wanted to control them.

So this should explain why I'm not pro PTI like a lot of people on this forum. I see PTI as yet another desi raj experiment gone wrong. I think its a dangerous thing because PTI's current politics threatens the stability of Pakistan because they and their voter honestly believes that 65% of Pakistan is a chor and/or traitor. You can't build nations with divisions like that. This doesn't mean that I am for the corruption of our politicians and desi raj. But those things are secondary to the stability of Pakistan. To me, PTI PPP PMLN are the spokes of the same wheel with the desi raj at the center.

So to answer your question:
why don't they care about their country enough to make the right decisions?

They care deeply about the country. They just don't believe that the people of Pakistan are smart enough to make decisions for themselves and they keep trying to control Pakistan in unsustainable and dangerous ways. Like a child holding on to a bird too tight because he loves it too much but doesn't realize that he's killing it.


A tangent on corruption:
Corruption in Pakistan is real and legal (I agree with Shabbar Zaidi). These politicians have literally legalized corruption so there is really no way to hold them accountable in courts. Which is why I think IK's anti-corruption mantra feels like truck ki batti to me. Either he is naive or deceptive. Pakistan needs structural changes like digitization to tackle corruption. Simply having an honest man on top is clearly not enough.










I would like your views on what I have written above. Maybe I will be able to convince you of something. Maybe @PanzerKiel will also understand some of the things that I said even though I said a lot of negative things about his service. But I do say that their control comes from a place of good intentions. They just need to let go. And they seem to be letting go of their latest experiment at least. Let's hope the experiment doesn't explode too badly.




Read my views above. He's a victim of smoking his own desi raj product.

As far as economics are concerned every political party can make cherry picked figures like that. Yes PTI did some great things but so did PMLN and PPP. Let's not think PTI was some God-sent. They were an experiment in civilian desi raj that smoked their own product. But let's hope they can let that go and try to be an political party that believes in democracy in Pakistan and work with the remaining 65% of the country to solve the country's problems.

You assume people vote freely. They don't. My family in Pakistan are financially independent, they have more people abroad than in the village. They are all educated, even some of the women in our family (who live in rural AJK) work as teachers in govt schools.

Yet they vote on the basis of caste, and they vote for the PPP candidate to avoid creating animosity. To avoid the potential of conflict they vote PPP.

The local candidate is regularly engaged in election violence. The other people on the ballot are the same. He might be a bad guy, but he's our bad guy - as long as we support him politically.

If this is the condition of the educated wealthy in Pakistan - what hope do the poor have? Do you think the people who voted for Jam Abdul Karim are able to vote for the opposition without consequence?


No doubt this is true for some candidates in EVERY party.
 
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I didn't know which thread to move our discussion to and this felt like a good enough thread.


@PakFactor @VCheng @SQ8
Good question but there's a reasonable explanation. The "British Raj spiritual successor" moniker warrants more explanation.

First of all, this desi raj (let's call it that), is not coming from a place of malice. As much as that would make it easy to explain things but as you point out that introduces some other logical holes. The pre partition Indian Army was heavily Britishized. These desi officers were given perks and privileges above the local populace. This bred a sense of superiority in them, which served to keep them in line and not revolting. After partition, India inherited almost all of the institutions of the Raj and so the military-(civilian) government balance was more or less the way the British left it. On the other hand in Pakistan, there were no institutions to speak of. The westernized military leadership made an analysis that they continued to make for 70 years that
"These people are incompetent and don't know what is best for them".
THAT is the source of this raj - not some desire to rule/extract/colonize.

The culture is such that the military has a sense of superiority (inherited from the pre partition Indian Army) over the local population. This leads to several statements that will sound awfully familiar to you and some aren't even directly given by the military but have been internalized by a segment of the population:
1. The people are jahil and don't know what's best for them.
2. Democracy cannot work in a country like this.
3. The people sell their votes for qeemay walay naan they can't be trusted with the right to vote.
4. A strong central government (sometimes dictator) is needed to keep these jahil awam in check.
5. These people are too jahil to run any form of local government.
6. We the raj need to show these people what the right path is.
7. All politicians are thieves and want to destroy Pakistan.

Here's the scary part. You probably just resonated with some of the above points. I am saying this because I did too. Many readers will and still do. But think about it a little. Don't these sound EXACTLY like the things the British Raj used to say about us South Asians to deny us any franchise?????? The desi raj is actually coming from a place of good intentions but the above is what they are thinking. Explains the whole bloody civilian attitude that is so strong in Pakistan too.

What about internalization? Well, these desi raj officers have had children and their children obviously mirror their views in most cases. Over three generations a large portion of our upper middle class (upper middle class because of their desi raj privilege of course) has come to have the above views. I count myself in this too. Being the son of a generational army officer I am not denying that I have benefited from the status quo and have had the same view of the people above. So there's a upper-middle class in Pakistan that basically despises the lower class. Evidence of this can be seen by the amount of people that agree to the above 6 points. These views have been reinforced by the decades of direct military control with the dictators openly saying and reinforcing the above points. So it is my opinion that these people are primarily what make up PTI voters. The theory fits nicely. These were people that didn't believe in democracy or voting until PTI showed up (points 1-3). They had a celebrity savior and not a traditional politician who was calling everyone else chor (point 7). So this makes me believe very strongly that IK is a project of the desi raj to have an internationally acceptable version of their views.

The problem is that our desi raj keeps making monsters that it can't control. Taliban, MQM, TLP, and now PTI. PTI clearly does not believe in the sanctity of democracy. They view 65% of Pakistan's population as jahil awam that sells their vote for qeemay walay naan so their vote doesn't count. The only good votes are the ones for PTI and every other vote is a "traitor/chor/jahil" vote. So you have a party that believes in the "above democracy" beliefs of the desi raj but is put in a democracy. Of course they will try to do unconstitutional system breaking things like dissolving assembly when theyre about to lose vote of no confidence because the 65% of Pakistan that voted for PPP and PMLN is jahil and doesn't know what theyre doing.

All of this brings us to the current situation. PTI was supported into power by the desi raj because they thought they would be their civilian brothers. It was well intentioned. They would finally have a civilian government that they could hand off things to. But of course, IK sahb started to believe that he was the head of the desi raj and forgot how he is a pawn in this game and was shown his place. The desi raj is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one hand theyve been telling us for 70 years that politicians are chor and and traitors and on the other hand they are forced to sit with the same politicians because their little experiment of IK was inexperienced and wanted to control them.

So this should explain why I'm not pro PTI like a lot of people on this forum. I see PTI as yet another desi raj experiment gone wrong. I think its a dangerous thing because PTI's current politics threatens the stability of Pakistan because they and their voter honestly believes that 65% of Pakistan is a chor and/or traitor. You can't build nations with divisions like that. This doesn't mean that I am for the corruption of our politicians and desi raj. But those things are secondary to the stability of Pakistan. To me, PTI PPP PMLN are the spokes of the same wheel with the desi raj at the center.

So to answer your question:
why don't they care about their country enough to make the right decisions?

They care deeply about the country. They just don't believe that the people of Pakistan are smart enough to make decisions for themselves and they keep trying to control Pakistan in unsustainable and dangerous ways. Like a child holding on to a bird too tight because he loves it too much but doesn't realize that he's killing it.


A tangent on corruption:
Corruption in Pakistan is real and legal (I agree with Shabbar Zaidi). These politicians have literally legalized corruption so there is really no way to hold them accountable in courts. Which is why I think IK's anti-corruption mantra feels like truck ki batti to me. Either he is naive or deceptive. Pakistan needs structural changes like digitization to tackle corruption. Simply having an honest man on top is clearly not enough.










I would like your views on what I have written above. Maybe I will be able to convince you of something. Maybe @PanzerKiel will also understand some of the things that I said even though I said a lot of negative things about his service. But I do say that their control comes from a place of good intentions. They just need to let go. And they seem to be letting go of their latest experiment at least. Let's hope the experiment doesn't explode too badly.




Read my views above. He's a victim of smoking his own desi raj product.

As far as economics are concerned every political party can make cherry picked figures like that. Yes PTI did some great things but so did PMLN and PPP. Let's not think PTI was some God-sent. They were an experiment in civilian desi raj that smoked their own product. But let's hope they can let that go and try to be an political party that believes in democracy in Pakistan and work with the remaining 65% of the country to solve the country's problems.
Ustaad is mein koi shak nahi k tune bari qeemti batein likhi hain

Lekin ye b bata de k ham is politically concentrated environment mein kese real change le kar aen.

In simple words,i am asking what is the cure for whole this dilama?
 
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I didn't know which thread to move our discussion to and this felt like a good enough thread.


@PakFactor @VCheng @SQ8
Good question but there's a reasonable explanation. The "British Raj spiritual successor" moniker warrants more explanation.

First of all, this desi raj (let's call it that), is not coming from a place of malice. As much as that would make it easy to explain things but as you point out that introduces some other logical holes. The pre partition Indian Army was heavily Britishized. These desi officers were given perks and privileges above the local populace. This bred a sense of superiority in them, which served to keep them in line and not revolting. After partition, India inherited almost all of the institutions of the Raj and so the military-(civilian) government balance was more or less the way the British left it. On the other hand in Pakistan, there were no institutions to speak of. The westernized military leadership made an analysis that they continued to make for 70 years that
"These people are incompetent and don't know what is best for them".
THAT is the source of this raj - not some desire to rule/extract/colonize.

The culture is such that the military has a sense of superiority (inherited from the pre partition Indian Army) over the local population. This leads to several statements that will sound awfully familiar to you and some aren't even directly given by the military but have been internalized by a segment of the population:
1. The people are jahil and don't know what's best for them.
2. Democracy cannot work in a country like this.
3. The people sell their votes for qeemay walay naan they can't be trusted with the right to vote.
4. A strong central government (sometimes dictator) is needed to keep these jahil awam in check.
5. These people are too jahil to run any form of local government.
6. We the raj need to show these people what the right path is.
7. All politicians are thieves and want to destroy Pakistan.

Here's the scary part. You probably just resonated with some of the above points. I am saying this because I did too. Many readers will and still do. But think about it a little. Don't these sound EXACTLY like the things the British Raj used to say about us South Asians to deny us any franchise?????? The desi raj is actually coming from a place of good intentions but the above is what they are thinking. Explains the whole bloody civilian attitude that is so strong in Pakistan too.

What about internalization? Well, these desi raj officers have had children and their children obviously mirror their views in most cases. Over three generations a large portion of our upper middle class (upper middle class because of their desi raj privilege of course) has come to have the above views. I count myself in this too. Being the son of a generational army officer I am not denying that I have benefited from the status quo and have had the same view of the people above. So there's a upper-middle class in Pakistan that basically despises the lower class. Evidence of this can be seen by the amount of people that agree to the above 6 points. These views have been reinforced by the decades of direct military control with the dictators openly saying and reinforcing the above points. So it is my opinion that these people are primarily what make up PTI voters. The theory fits nicely. These were people that didn't believe in democracy or voting until PTI showed up (points 1-3). They had a celebrity savior and not a traditional politician who was calling everyone else chor (point 7). So this makes me believe very strongly that IK is a project of the desi raj to have an internationally acceptable version of their views.

The problem is that our desi raj keeps making monsters that it can't control. Taliban, MQM, TLP, and now PTI. PTI clearly does not believe in the sanctity of democracy. They view 65% of Pakistan's population as jahil awam that sells their vote for qeemay walay naan so their vote doesn't count. The only good votes are the ones for PTI and every other vote is a "traitor/chor/jahil" vote. So you have a party that believes in the "above democracy" beliefs of the desi raj but is put in a democracy. Of course they will try to do unconstitutional system breaking things like dissolving assembly when theyre about to lose vote of no confidence because the 65% of Pakistan that voted for PPP and PMLN is jahil and doesn't know what theyre doing.

All of this brings us to the current situation. PTI was supported into power by the desi raj because they thought they would be their civilian brothers. It was well intentioned. They would finally have a civilian government that they could hand off things to. But of course, IK sahb started to believe that he was the head of the desi raj and forgot how he is a pawn in this game and was shown his place. The desi raj is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one hand theyve been telling us for 70 years that politicians are chor and and traitors and on the other hand they are forced to sit with the same politicians because their little experiment of IK was inexperienced and wanted to control them.

So this should explain why I'm not pro PTI like a lot of people on this forum. I see PTI as yet another desi raj experiment gone wrong. I think its a dangerous thing because PTI's current politics threatens the stability of Pakistan because they and their voter honestly believes that 65% of Pakistan is a chor and/or traitor. You can't build nations with divisions like that. This doesn't mean that I am for the corruption of our politicians and desi raj. But those things are secondary to the stability of Pakistan. To me, PTI PPP PMLN are the spokes of the same wheel with the desi raj at the center.

So to answer your question:
why don't they care about their country enough to make the right decisions?

They care deeply about the country. They just don't believe that the people of Pakistan are smart enough to make decisions for themselves and they keep trying to control Pakistan in unsustainable and dangerous ways. Like a child holding on to a bird too tight because he loves it too much but doesn't realize that he's killing it.


A tangent on corruption:
Corruption in Pakistan is real and legal (I agree with Shabbar Zaidi). These politicians have literally legalized corruption so there is really no way to hold them accountable in courts. Which is why I think IK's anti-corruption mantra feels like truck ki batti to me. Either he is naive or deceptive. Pakistan needs structural changes like digitization to tackle corruption. Simply having an honest man on top is clearly not enough.










I would like your views on what I have written above. Maybe I will be able to convince you of something. Maybe @PanzerKiel will also understand some of the things that I said even though I said a lot of negative things about his service. But I do say that their control comes from a place of good intentions. They just need to let go. And they seem to be letting go of their latest experiment at least. Let's hope the experiment doesn't explode too badly.




Read my views above. He's a victim of smoking his own desi raj product.

As far as economics are concerned every political party can make cherry picked figures like that. Yes PTI did some great things but so did PMLN and PPP. Let's not think PTI was some God-sent. They were an experiment in civilian desi raj that smoked their own product. But let's hope they can let that go and try to be an political party that believes in democracy in Pakistan and work with the remaining 65% of the country to solve the country's problems.
I think this is bang on.

So, the question is, what does the 'desi raj' lack in its ability to make the right decisions?

You aptly pointed out the structural flaws in their thinking, but I imagine there's also something missing.

As I see it, I think the 'desi raj' lacks a genuine ideology (not talking about truck ki batti type stuff like "no corruption!") to structure the thoughts and create a common framework of rules, expectations, vision, etc. So, for example, the American elite base their thinking on capitalistic lines, e.g., "we want to see economic growth; we want to win in other trade markets; etc." In turn, they strictly follow rules that translate into impactful laws, e.g., property law, contract law, etc. In turn, the need to win on the global stage and the rules sort of coalescing into very practical, goal-oriented thinking, which shapes their business environment, education system, etc.

I feel that the 'thoughts' of Pakistani society are chaotic and all over the place. One guy wants Azm, but has no idea that a real Project Azm would require delegating to the experts, broader economic policies, a growth-oriented education policy, specific development spending (for certain infrastructure within education, industry, etc). He has no idea about all of those things because his mind isn't structured to think along those lines.
 
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You assume people vote freely. They don't. My family in Pakistan are financially independent, they have more people abroad than in the village. They are all educated, even some of the women in our family (who live in rural AJK) work as teachers in govt schools.

Yet they vote on the basis of caste, and they vote for the PPP candidate to avoid creating animosity. To avoid the potential of conflict they vote PPP.

The local candidate is regularly engaged in election violence. The other people on the ballot are the same. He might be a bad guy, but he's our bad guy - as long as we support him politically.

If this is the condition of the educated wealthy in Pakistan - what hope do the poor have? Do you think the people who voted for Jam Abdul Karim are able to vote for the opposition without consequence?


No doubt this is true for some candidates in EVERY party.
The desi raj's narrative wouldn't be this effective if it didn't have some truth behind it so you're right and I do concede that much. And this is exactly the fear of the desi raj that if they let people choose freely, the people will be coerced into a corrupt(er) system.

Now here's my counter arguments to that:
1. The desi raj IS also coercing people and taking away their voter franchise albeit with the purest of intentions. So there isn't much of a moral high ground on that side.
2. The hope of democracy is that given enough time people will grow enough strength through electoral choice and "unionizing". This is what happened in the west - remember they were feudal societies too. Our elite discredits democracy based on the short and interuppted spurts that have happened in Pakistan. As a result Pakistanis judge it the same way too. But I assert that we need to let the cycle run free of outside influence for at least a decade - the military wanted to kick out PMLN in 2015 before the so called decade of democracy was even over and their legs were being cut.


Ustaad is mein koi shak nahi k tune bari qeemti batein likhi hain

Lekin ye b bata de k ham is politically concentrated environment mein kese real change le kar aen.

In simple words,i am asking what is the cure for whole this dilama?
Short term: PTI needs to swallow the bitter pill for Pakistan. IK needs to take one of his famous U-turns and sit in parliament as opposition. He should strengthen the system. IK's ego is too big for him to be statesman, he needs to check it. Just like in 2018 PMLN PPP were calling PTI selected and yet they chose to sit in parliament and play the role of the opposition. PTI can and should do the same. This will give much needed breathing room to the government to save Pakistan from default. This isn't a matter of fun politics tum chor tum ghaddar anymore. It's a matter of Pakistan's survival.

Long term: The military establishment needs to remain neutral. They were supporting PTI and they let that support go. The sin wasn't letting the support go. The sin was supporting a party. The military needs to remain neutral and let the politics work itself out. Sure it can play a role to bring people together but nothing more.

Everything else, I hope, will sort itself out.


I think this is bang on.

So, the question is, what does the 'desi raj' lack in its ability to make the right decisions?

You aptly pointed out the structural flaws in their thinking, but I imagine there's also something missing.

As I see it, I think the 'desi raj' lacks a genuine ideology (not talking about truck ki batti type stuff like "no corruption!") to structure the thoughts and create a common framework of rules, expectations, vision, etc. So, for example, the American elite base their thinking on capitalistic lines, e.g., "we want to see economic growth; we want to win in other trade markets; etc." In turn, they strictly follow rules that translate into impactful laws, e.g., property law, contract law, etc. In turn, the need to win on the global stage and the rules sort of coalescing into very practical, goal-oriented thinking, which shapes their business environment, education system, etc.

I feel that the 'thoughts' of Pakistani society are chaotic and all over the place. One guy wants Azm, but has no idea that a real Project Azm would require delegating to the experts, broader economic policies, a growth-oriented education policy, specific development spending (for certain infrastructure within education, industry, etc). He has no idea about all of those things because his mind isn't structured to think along those lines.
Hmmm..

I admit I haven't thought a lot about it. But if I was forced to answer, we don't like to engage in complex thought. For example, what's wrong with Pakistan? One word corruption. The real answer is in my first post on this thread but that's too complex of a thought. Our thinking has been twitter like since before twitter. We need to build dams? Dam fund. Want to get rid of Pakistani debt? Qarz utaro mulk sawaro scheme. All the stuff that I wrote in my post? No American conspiracy simple. The list is endless.

I was reading a theory on why colder countries are more developed. Now the theory might not be the reason but it does give food for thought. It said people in colder climates were forced to do complex thinking because they had to plan for snowy winters by storing crops and supplies, moving to warmer places etc. On the other hand warm places provided a year-long supply of food for the people and therefore they didn't develop the ability to do long-term planning as a society. I wonder how much truth there is in that theory.

But it is my belief (yes not argument) that given enough time and stability the Pakistani people are smart enough to work out their best interest. Our systems just have been messed with too often to function.

EDIT: Also I think there is a big element of fear here. The desi raj is terrified of what the Pakistani people will vote for. They didn't like what they voted for in 1971. This is a nation level trust exercise that our actual rulers need to do.
 
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Who is responsible for the current economy problem? Why our country is going to bankrupt? Before coming in power same people promised that they would decrease inflation rate, where are that promises? Poverty is increasing which leads to increase in crimes. Petrol prices are getting globally high but main thing if PTI government was giving subsidy by going against IMF, so why they are not giving the subsidy? Why they are not contacting Russia to import fuel in cheaper prices, is it because they don't want to make America sad? How much they can buy everything in 2000 Rs is given by this incompetent govt? Our treasure falls to single digit and our foreign reserves is also depreciating. Federal finance minister is also an illiterate man who doesn't know about economy that much. Large textile mills and some other transport services are shutting down, what's the reason behind this?

If you really want to go to the early days:

If we take a look at Pakistan’s history of borrowing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), some interesting facts come to light. Pakistan’s history of knocking upon the IMF’s door started back in 1958, when General Ayub Khan first took the country to the IMF route and signed an agreement to secure special drawing rights (SDR) 25 million under a Standby Agreement. The money was never withdrawn.

Not too long after, Ayub’s finance team pursued two back-to-back IMF programs in 1965 and 1968 respectively. This time, however, they ended up withdrawing around SDR 112 million, the entire agreed upon amount. This is where Pakistan officially became a new client for the IMF.

If we compare based on democracy vs dictatorship, our democratically-elected leaders were behind 82% of these loans.
 
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FTA with China needs to be stopped
FTA with China is terrible for most developing economies. The low value manufacturing goods that lower economies can produce is not something that China wants to import. Trade relationship with China is typically similar to colonial trade. Export resources (food or raw materials) to China and import all manufactured consumer goods from them. Blanket no tariff on import means it is extremely difficult for local manufacturers to compete.
 
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