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Ukraine War: Time For India To Rethink its Military Doctrine Modeled On Russia's?

RiazHaq

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India's Russian-equipped and trained military is watching with great concern Russia's losses in the Ukraine war. Moscow has lost 20,000 soldiers, nearly 500 main battle tanks and a large warship so far, according to media reports. Ukraine's use of Turkish drones, US-made anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) Javelins and Ukrainian anti-ship Neptune missiles has taken a heavy toll on the Russian Army and Navy. It is notable that India's Cold Start Doctrine against Pakistan is modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG).


Russian Influence on Indian Military Doctrine:

It is well known that the Indian Army relies on Russian tanks, artillery, rockets, and ammunition. The Indian Navy uses Russian ships, submarines and missiles and the Russian Su-30 MKI forms the backbone of the Indian Air Force. Like Russia, the Indian military doctrine is based on deploying large platforms (tanks, artillery, ships and fighter-bombers) with massive firepower. Here's an excerpt of an article by Dr. Vipin Narang, Indian-American analyst, on the subject:

"In terms of doctrine and strategy, although it may be difficult to trace direct influence and lineage between Russia and India, there are several pieces in India’s conventional and nuclear strategy that at least mirror Russia’s behavior. On the conventional side, the core formation in the quick-strike concept known as “Cold Start” or “proactive strategy options” was modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG). The idea was to have a formation that could be rapidly assembled from tank and armored divisions that could break through reinforced defenses—NATO for Russia, and Pakistan’s I and II Corps in the plains and desert sectors for India.

"On the nuclear side, India is currently seized with the same dilemma as the Soviet Union was during the Cold War: both NATO and Pakistan threaten battlefield nuclear weapons against conventional thrusts (India, at least, presumably would be retaliating following a Pakistan-backed provocation). While both states refined their conventional concept of operations, there may have also been corresponding adjustments to their nuclear strategies. It was long believed that, in response to NATO threats to use nuclear weapons first on the battlefield, the Soviet Union had strong preemptive counterforce elements in its strategy to try to at least disarm the United States of its strategic nuclear weapons for damage limitation. It is increasingly evident that at least some serious Indian officials are interested in developing the same sort of option: preemptive counterforce against Pakistan’s strategic nuclear forces, both for damage limitation and to reopen India’s conventional superiority. It is no surprise perhaps, then, that India chose to go ahead with acquiring Russia’s S-400 missile and air defense system, despite the threat of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions from the United States: the S-400 is key to India’s damage limitation strategy, capable of potentially intercepting residual ballistic and cruise missiles that a counterforce strike might miss".

Turkish Drones:

Turkish Bayraktar TB2 has been highly effective in destroying Russian tanks and armor in Ukraine. It is playing a key role in Ukraine's counter offensives against Russia's invasion. It is proving so effective that "Ukrainian forces are singing its praises, literally", according to a CNN report.

Indian Army has nearly 6,000 tanks of Russian origin. These tanks are just as vulnerable to drone and anti-tank missiles as the Russian tanks that perished in Ukraine.

Pakistan has developed Baktar Shikan, a second-generation man-portable anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system which uses optical aiming, IR tracking, remotely controlled and wire transmitted guidance signals. It can also be mounted on attack helicopters and Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs). Its long range, penetration power and a powerful anti-jamming capability form a potent defense against armored targets.

Pakistan is also reported to have already acquired Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones recently. It was displayed in the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23, 2022, along with other military equipment acquired recently by the Pakistani defense forces.

Anti-Ship Missiles:

Ukraine claims that its Neptune anti-ship missiles hit and sank Moskva in Black Sea. It was a large 10,000-ton guided missile cruiser of the Russian Navy that was launching cruise missiles on targets in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. It is the largest warship to have been sunk in action since WWII.

Vast majority of Indian Navy ships, including its aircraft carriers and missile frigates, are designed, built and equipped by Russians.

Pakistan recently showcased its anti-ship missile Harbah at DIMDEX 2022, a defense expo in Qatar. It is a medium range ship launched subsonic cruise missile system capable of targeting sea as well as land targets in “all weather operation” at a maximum range of 280 kilometers, according to a report in NavalNews. The missile is fire and forget type. It relies on inertial navigation technologies with GPS and GLONASS systems. According to its manufacturer GIDS, the missile features the following guidance systems: a DSMAC camera, imaging infrared seeker, and radar seeker.

Summary:

The war in Ukraine is forcing a defense strategy rethink in countries such as India which rely on Russian equipment and training. Hindustan Times has quoted an unnamed former Indian Army Chief as saying: “War videos available show that the Russian Army has tactical issues in Ukraine war. Tell me, which tank formation goes to war in a single file without air or infantry cover when the opponent is equipped with the best anti-tank guided missile like Javelin or Turkish Bayraktar TB2 missile firing drones? There is question on Russian air supremacy with Ukraine Army armed with shoulder fired Stinger surface to air missiles as well as the night fighting capability of the Russian Air Force.”

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Probably until Sundarji but beyond that I believe the doctrine has changed. It now incorporates lessons learnt from other exercises across the globe.
 
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Guess what? Turkey and Pak are the masters in the asymmetric warfare, which is how the Muslims have been fighting the major wars since the time of Resulullah (PBUH)....
 
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Russia has too few troops to conquer Ukraine. No amount of weapons or tactics changes that
 
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Russia's biggest mistake was their intelligence failure in believing the Ukrainian public would welcome them as liberators. They were also exercising restraint in targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Those two factors will not apply when India attacks Pakistan. They also know that the dominant Western media will sell the Indian narrative.
 
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Russia's biggest mistake was their intelligence failure in believing the Ukrainian public would welcome them as liberators. They were also exercising restraint in targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.
Assume that no. 2 is correct, this mean the first mistake led to the second, which gave the Ukrainians critical time to form their resistance. Back in Desert Storm, we did not make the first mistake, in fact, we went in with full confidence that at best, there would be indifference, if not alliance with the retreating Iraqi Army to create a populist resistance. We did not expect the welcome from many Iraqis and eventually assistance to US in trying to keep a peace.

 
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Assume that no. 2 is correct, this mean the first mistake led to the second, which gave the Ukrainians critical time to form their resistance. Back in Desert Storm, we did not make the first mistake, in fact, we went in with full confidence that at best, there would be indifference, if not alliance with the retreating Iraqi Army to create a populist resistance. We did not expect the welcome from many Iraqis and eventually assistance to US in trying to keep a peace.

The war for Russia was over given Ukraine's willingness to resist and NATO willingness to supply Ukraine.
I do not know what is worse -- failing to capture Kiev or capturing Kiev & getting picked off platoon at a time
 
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Assume that no. 2 is correct, this mean the first mistake led to the second, which gave the Ukrainians critical time to form their resistance. Back in Desert Storm, we did not make the first mistake, in fact, we went in with full confidence that at best, there would be indifference, if not alliance with the retreating Iraqi Army to create a populist resistance. We did not expect the welcome from many Iraqis and eventually assistance to US in trying to keep a peace.

Both mistakes, especially the first, led to the could-be-fatal mistake of leaving untouched rails, roads and airports which allowed NATO weapons to flow in.

Sadly, Pakistan can count on maybe Turkey and China for support, whereas India will surely get supplies and intelligence from individual NATO countries, though probably not NATO as an organization.
 
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#Russia Can’t Depend on #India Either. #NewDelhi may be frustratingly tolerant of #Putin, but it isn’t likely to help him substantively in #UkraineWar. #Modi @dhume https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-...scow-energy-exports-oil-new-delhi-11651173078 via @WSJOpinion

Russian oil makes up a small fraction of Indian oil imports—only around 2% in 2021. Despite its recent purchases, India isn’t among the top 10 importers of Russian energy. As Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar pointed out last month, this is unlikely to change. Most of Indian energy comes from Gulf nations that are friendly to America. As of 2020, its top three oil suppliers were Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while its top gas suppliers were Qatar and the U.S. With access to reliable energy supplies from the Gulf, Indian refiners don’t need to turn to faraway Russia.

------

India’s reliance on Russian arms has been declining—down from 69% of Indian arms purchases in 2012-16 to 46% in 2017-21. Western sanctions on Russia could accelerate this decline by undermining Russia’s ability to maintain a sophisticated defense-industrial base. Russia’s battlefield losses may also force its arms producers to focus on replenishing its own stocks over expanding exports. And though Moscow has been a reliable strategic partner to New Delhi in the past, its growing closeness to Beijing makes it less dependable. Mr. Tellis predicts a continued “gentle decline” in Indian arms imports from Russia, at least compared with India’s imports from other nations such as the U.S., Israel and France.
 
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Pak are the masters in the asymmetric warfare,
And you advocate more of it for success in the battlefield and beyond?

Russia's biggest mistake was their intelligence failure in believing the Ukrainian public would welcome them as liberators. They were also exercising restraint in targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Those two factors will not apply when India attacks Pakistan. They also know that the dominant Western media will sell the Indian narrative.
I find it impossible to believe that you are seriously saying that, considering the scrupulousness, even, to be harsh, the scrupulosity with which India (AND Pakistan) have dealt with bombing civilian centres.


India's Russian-equipped and trained military is watching with great concern Russia's losses in the Ukraine war. Moscow has lost 20,000 soldiers, nearly 500 main battle tanks and a large warship so far, according to media reports. Ukraine's use of Turkish drones, US-made anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) Javelins and Ukrainian anti-ship Neptune missiles has taken a heavy toll on the Russian Army and Navy. It is notable that India's Cold Start Doctrine against Pakistan is modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG).


Russian Influence on Indian Military Doctrine:

It is well known that the Indian Army relies on Russian tanks, artillery, rockets, and ammunition. The Indian Navy uses Russian ships, submarines and missiles and the Russian Su-30 MKI forms the backbone of the Indian Air Force. Like Russia, the Indian military doctrine is based on deploying large platforms (tanks, artillery, ships and fighter-bombers) with massive firepower. Here's an excerpt of an article by Dr. Vipin Narang, Indian-American analyst, on the subject:

"In terms of doctrine and strategy, although it may be difficult to trace direct influence and lineage between Russia and India, there are several pieces in India’s conventional and nuclear strategy that at least mirror Russia’s behavior. On the conventional side, the core formation in the quick-strike concept known as “Cold Start” or “proactive strategy options” was modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG). The idea was to have a formation that could be rapidly assembled from tank and armored divisions that could break through reinforced defenses—NATO for Russia, and Pakistan’s I and II Corps in the plains and desert sectors for India.

"On the nuclear side, India is currently seized with the same dilemma as the Soviet Union was during the Cold War: both NATO and Pakistan threaten battlefield nuclear weapons against conventional thrusts (India, at least, presumably would be retaliating following a Pakistan-backed provocation). While both states refined their conventional concept of operations, there may have also been corresponding adjustments to their nuclear strategies. It was long believed that, in response to NATO threats to use nuclear weapons first on the battlefield, the Soviet Union had strong preemptive counterforce elements in its strategy to try to at least disarm the United States of its strategic nuclear weapons for damage limitation. It is increasingly evident that at least some serious Indian officials are interested in developing the same sort of option: preemptive counterforce against Pakistan’s strategic nuclear forces, both for damage limitation and to reopen India’s conventional superiority. It is no surprise perhaps, then, that India chose to go ahead with acquiring Russia’s S-400 missile and air defense system, despite the threat of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions from the United States: the S-400 is key to India’s damage limitation strategy, capable of potentially intercepting residual ballistic and cruise missiles that a counterforce strike might miss".

Turkish Drones:

Turkish Bayraktar TB2 has been highly effective in destroying Russian tanks and armor in Ukraine. It is playing a key role in Ukraine's counter offensives against Russia's invasion. It is proving so effective that "Ukrainian forces are singing its praises, literally", according to a CNN report.

Indian Army has nearly 6,000 tanks of Russian origin. These tanks are just as vulnerable to drone and anti-tank missiles as the Russian tanks that perished in Ukraine.

Pakistan has developed Baktar Shikan, a second-generation man-portable anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system which uses optical aiming, IR tracking, remotely controlled and wire transmitted guidance signals. It can also be mounted on attack helicopters and Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs). Its long range, penetration power and a powerful anti-jamming capability form a potent defense against armored targets.

Pakistan is also reported to have already acquired Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones recently. It was displayed in the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23, 2022, along with other military equipment acquired recently by the Pakistani defense forces.

Anti-Ship Missiles:

Ukraine claims that its Neptune anti-ship missiles hit and sank Moskva in Black Sea. It was a large 10,000-ton guided missile cruiser of the Russian Navy that was launching cruise missiles on targets in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. It is the largest warship to have been sunk in action since WWII.

Vast majority of Indian Navy ships, including its aircraft carriers and missile frigates, are designed, built and equipped by Russians.

Pakistan recently showcased its anti-ship missile Harbah at DIMDEX 2022, a defense expo in Qatar. It is a medium range ship launched subsonic cruise missile system capable of targeting sea as well as land targets in “all weather operation” at a maximum range of 280 kilometers, according to a report in NavalNews. The missile is fire and forget type. It relies on inertial navigation technologies with GPS and GLONASS systems. According to its manufacturer GIDS, the missile features the following guidance systems: a DSMAC camera, imaging infrared seeker, and radar seeker.

Summary:

The war in Ukraine is forcing a defense strategy rethink in countries such as India which rely on Russian equipment and training. Hindustan Times has quoted an unnamed former Indian Army Chief as saying: “War videos available show that the Russian Army has tactical issues in Ukraine war. Tell me, which tank formation goes to war in a single file without air or infantry cover when the opponent is equipped with the best anti-tank guided missile like Javelin or Turkish Bayraktar TB2 missile firing drones? There is question on Russian air supremacy with Ukraine Army armed with shoulder fired Stinger surface to air missiles as well as the night fighting capability of the Russian Air Force.”

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan-China Defense Industry Collaboration Irks West

Pakistan's Cyber Attack and Defense Capability

Is India a Paper Elephant?

Pakistan's Aircraft Exports

Pakistan Navy Modernization

West's Technological Edge in Geopolitical Competition

Pakistan Defense Industry

Silicon Valley Book Launch of "Eating Grass"

Ukraine's Lesson For Pakistan: Never Give Up Nukes!

Pakistan Economy Nears Trillion Dollars

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Riaz Haq Youtube Channel

VPOS Youtube Channel



Artefacts do not form policy, they follow policy.
 
.
Russia's biggest mistake was their intelligence failure in believing the Ukrainian public would welcome them as liberators. They were also exercising restraint in targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Those two factors will not apply when India attacks Pakistan. They also know that the dominant Western media will sell the Indian narrative.

Assume that no. 2 is correct, this mean the first mistake led to the second, which gave the Ukrainians critical time to form their resistance. Back in Desert Storm, we did not make the first mistake, in fact, we went in with full confidence that at best, there would be indifference, if not alliance with the retreating Iraqi Army to create a populist resistance. We did not expect the welcome from many Iraqis and eventually assistance to US in trying to keep a peace.

This and WotTen's message is based on the assumption that Putin's aim was a plan military victory over Ukraine. If that is the only lens you are willing to look at things then I am sorry
you are missing out.

The Ukraine drama has played well, in setting thresholds and updating the existing ones.
The political and financial impacts of Putin's move are far more deeper than the apparent military action.
And you advocate more of it for success in the battlefield and beyond?


I find it impossible to believe that you are seriously saying that, considering the scrupulousness, even, to be harsh, the scrupulosity with which India (AND Pakistan) have dealt with bombing civilian centres.



Artefacts do not form policy, they follow policy.
Putin has managed to do away with single polar world view, there are at least 2 superpowers; one of whom is willing to flex it's muscle.
It has also shown the realistic reach of NATO and to what extent nations can be galvanized.
The oil war will soon prevail, OPEC + are going to have serious rifts soon.
 
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Modern Indian army conventional doctrine is based on 1st Gulf-war

It is a bit antiquated for small scale conflicts but very relevant in full scale war

BECA adds to this
 
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