Ukraine rebels claim Tochka ballistic missile shoot-down

[Saifullah Sani]

East Ukrainian rebels claimed to have shot down a OTR-21 Tochka (SS-21 'Scarab'/9M79) short-range ballistic missile near Luhansk on 1/2 February Source: LifeNews

Ukrainian rebels claim to have shot down an OTR-21 Tochka (SS-21 'Scarab'/9M79) short-range ballistic missile near Luhansk on the night of 1/2 February.
The claim, if true, would indicate that anti-Kiev forces have an operational missile defence capability. However, analysis by IHS Jane's indicates the rebels are unlikely to have downed the missile.
The news does nevertheless appear to confirm that Kiev is using tactical ballistic missiles, possibly armed with submunitions, in its 'anti-terrorism operation' in east Ukraine.

The Tochka's propulsion and control sections are intact, with its guidance system visible on the slope behind. The missile's warhead, however, is absent. (LifeNews)​

Russian news website/television channel Life News broadcast video footage showing the damaged but intact tail (control) and propulsion section of a Tochka ballistic missile, with its guidance section nearby but no warhead present. The Tochka is known to be in Ukrainian service and has reportedly been used by Kiev as early in the conflict as July 2014.
Rebels interviewed by the channel stated that "the missile was intercepted by missile defence troops in Bryanka" before landing near the Alchevsk Metallurgical Plant.
The missile "was flying from the south-west and it can be said that it was Luhansk-bound. Parts of the missile were scattered across the area but they will be collected for international organisations to examine," the rebel added.

ANALYSIS
In order to successfully shoot down a tactical ballistic missile, which travel at very high velocities, the rebels would need to be operating advanced air defence systems of the kind not seen in east Ukraine since a 9K37 Buk (SA-11 'Gadfly') or a later 9K40 Buk-M2 (SA-17/'Grizzly') was used in July 2014 to down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17.
Most variants of the Buk offer some degree of counter-tactical ballistic missile capability, as do variants of the S-300P (SA-10 'Grumble'), while the most modern version of the 96K6 Pantsyr-S1 (SA-22 'Greyhound') is also claimed to offer a limited missile defence capability. Although they may be present, no confirmed sightings of such systems have been seen in east Ukraine since last July.
The most likely scenario then is that rebel claims of shooting down the missile are mere bluster.
Two key pieces of evidence support this view. Firstly, the wreckage shows no evidence of damage by either a fragmentation warhead as seen on Buk systems, or the kind of fragmentation/continuous-rod warheads seen on the later S-300 or Pantsyr systems.
Secondly, the wrecked tail and body section seen on 2 February in Ukraine is almost identical to the wreckage of several Tochka missiles fired during Russia's short 2008 war with Georgia. With Georgian forces never having claimed to have downed Tochka missiles during the conflict, another factor must be in play.
Photo evidence of the impact of Tochkas armed with unitary high explosive (HE) warheads from the Georgian conflict indicate that very little of the missile's fuselage remains recognisable after detonation. However, during the Georgian war, the wreckage of several Tochka missile tail and body sections were found (often showing signs of having landed on their base), indicating that the missiles had broken up in mid-air.
One explanation given for this is that a fault in the missiles themselves has been causing some to become unstable in flight and to break up. This could be due to age, with the Tochka missiles mainly built in the 1980s - although some in service may date from as early as the late 1970s - or it could be from a manufacturing or design fault. That Russian forces are not known to have modernised or upgraded their Tochka inventories following the Georgian conflict indicates that the missiles were functioning as designed.
The most likely explanation is that both Russia in Georgia and Ukraine in this instance have been firing a submunition-armed version of the Tochka which, after dispensing its munitions, is becoming unstable and breaking up in the air.
Although often perceived to only mount a unitary warhead - whether HE, fragmentation, or nuclear - a submunition warhead, the 9M123K, is also available for the Tochka. The 9M123K warhead actively dispenses its submunitions and, in the process, the casing on the warhead. This appears to make the remainder of the missile aerodynamically unstable and causes it to tumble, shearing off the empty nose and submunition container and leaving the tail and guidance section to fall to the ground as a single piece.
With a circular error probable of up to 95-150 m and a 482 kg warhead the Tochka is by no means a precision-strike weapon. Using such tactical ballistic missiles in a conflict often involving civilian areas is undoubtedly controversial. While Ukraine is not a party to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, using such weapons with a relatively inaccurate delivery mechanism will do little credit to Kiev on the international stage.
Related article: Ukrainian separatists show off 'air force'

The wreckage in Ukraine is almost identical to this wreckage of a Tochka missile's propulsion, control, and guidance sections seen in Poti, Georgia, in 2008. (Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs)Analysis: Ukraine rebels claim Tochka ballistic missile shoot-down - IHS Jane's 360​

 

[PakArmyFTW]

That car really got screwed. Damn.

 

[Falcon29]

What will this devplpment mean? Can we expect war in all of Ukraine? Or will it stay contained in the east?