U.S. Sources Claim China Could Have Over 150 J-20 Stealth Fighters in Service as Production Expands — Is It Possible?

[Shotgunner51]

Exactly! I'm confused as to why many people are confused that CHina has that many J-20s. what is 100 for China to produce?? lol....people shouldnt judge China based on how they judge their incompetent, slow selves, aka projecting. If China can crank out advanced, large, expensive warships, why cant China crank out 100 J-20s??

Yes bro I also think supply side shouldn't be a big problem, but people overlook one core issue: there's not enough money! Approved defence budget for 2021 is RMB 1.35 trillion, or 1.23% of GDP (Esimated 110 trillion), such crazily low expenditure level can almost be described as "pacifist". Furthermore this thin budget is spread across at least 5 military branches (PLARF, PLASSF, PLAN, PLAAF, PLA, and partially PAP) all are hungry for budget, so it's a tough reality that each single piece of tactical equipment has limited purchase order (unless they are of strategic level), especially when unit prices soaring through the roof. I don't know how many J-20 PLAAF chief has procured, but I can imagine the look on his face when he compares the budget allocated to him vs the very long list of tactical equipment he needs to buy.

 

[FuturePAF]

Yes bro I also think supply side shouldn't be a big problem, but people overlook one core issue: there's not enough money! Approved defence budget for 2021 is RMB 1.35 trillion, or 1.23% of GDP (Esimated 110 trillion), such crazily low expenditure level can almost be described as "pacifist". Furthermore this thin budget is spread across at least 5 military branches (PLARF, PLASSF, PLAN, PLAAF, PLA, and partially PAP) all are hungry for budget, so it's a tough reality that each single piece of equipment has limited purchase order, especially when unit prices soaring through the roof. I don't know how many J-20 PLAAF chief has procured, but I can imagine the look on his face when he compares the budget allocated to him vs the very long list of equipment he needs to buy.

Why do you think the budget is limited?

1.23% of GDP ($17.17 Trillion GDP) is still $211 Billion a year.

perhaps they don’t want to overspend the way the Soviets did and want to leapfrog technologies. Perhaps they are still spending more on R&D to catchup in key technologies like engines, then switch to mass production once the technologies have matured, similar to how the F-35 is going these days. They could always ramp up production if it seems they will be needing it. In the mean time they are maximizing the size of the economy to support a larger defense budget down the line.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Why do you think the budget is limited?

1.23% of GDP ($17.17 Trillion GDP) is still $211 Billion a year.

perhaps they don’t want to overspend the way the Soviets did and want to leapfrog technologies. Perhaps they are still spending more on R&D to catchup in key technologies like engines, then switch to mass production once the technologies have matured, similar to how the F-35 is going these days. They could always ramp up production if it seems they will be needing it. In the mean time they are maximizing the size of the economy to support a larger defense budget down the line.

Yes, but $211 Billion a year is only 1.23% of GDP, that's the other way looking at the equation. 1.23%, such a number in NATO is called "piggy banking" (anything below 2%), in Japan is called "pacifist" (1%).

The absolute amount seems big, but if spread across a military of China size then it's very low. It's not just money to maintain a sizable standing force, but a significant slice of the cake is allocated to R&D like you've mentioned, that's exactly why procurement of each single piece of tactical equipment is extremely limited, not to mention the list is very, very, long.

China obviously wouldn't repeat the USSR mistake, in fact it's going in the exact opposite direction, with surpluses in all accounts China is even set to dethrone Japan as world's largest creditor soon. China can of course double the current military scale or maybe even more without any financial impact, but it's not necessary. I guess PLAAF will continue to add new equipment, like J-20, at a "fair" speed.

 

[FuturePAF]

Yes, but $211 Billion a year is only 1.23% of GDP, that's the other way looking at the equation. 1.23%, such a number in NATO is called "piggy banking" (anything below 2%), in Japan is called "pacifist" (1%).

The absolute amount seems big, but if spread across a military of China size then it's very low. It's not just money to maintain a sizable standing force, but a significant slice of the cake is allocated to R&D like you've mentioned, that's exactly why procurement of each single piece of tactical equipment is extremely limited, not to mention the list is very, very, long.

China obviously wouldn't repeat the USSR mistake, in fact it's going in the exact opposite direction, with surpluses in all accounts China is even set to dethrone Japan as world's largest creditor soon. China can of course double the current military scale or maybe even more without any financial impact, but it's not necessary. I guess PLAAF will continue to add new equipment, like J-20, at a "fair" speed.

If China were to go to the 2% standard, that would mean ~$343 Billion a year, or approximately $132 Billion more. With that kind of increase do you think China would just speed up its current programs or are there programs it wants to invest in that the lower funding is hold it back from going into; like a comprehensive Nuclear triad matching the big two, or an increase in the logistical aircrafts; especially tankers, AWACS, ELINT, etc.?

Perhaps a lot of the programs are maturing and once they do, China will allocate a large amount of funding for those programs. For example; perhaps they are waiting on the CJ-1000A engine to be ready to make a lot of C-919 based military platforms.

Although, more funding could speed up R&D programs. Higher spending could also attract better candidates for the officer and NCO Corp from private corporations.

 

[Shotgunner51]

If China were to go to the 2% standard, that would mean ~$343 Billion a year, or approximately $132 Billion more. With that kind of increase do you think China would just speed up its current programs or are there programs it wants to invest in that the lower funding is hold it back from going into; like a comprehensive Nuclear triad, or an increase in the logistical aircrafts; especially tankers, AWACS, ELINT, etc.

Perhaps a lot of the programs are maturing and once they do, China will allocate a large amount of funding for those programs. For example; perhaps they are waiting on the CJ-1000A engine to be ready to make a lot of C-919 based military platforms.

Although, more funding could speed up R&D programs.

Exactly, that's what I guess is the guiding principle. With limited budget, prioritize R&D to develop comprehensive military strength in all domains, no need to rush on numbers (especially tactical-level equipment) given current standing scale is already quite sizeable. Or put it simply, adding already known equipment is never priority of spending money, programs on "yet-to-be known" military tech is. I think defence spend will still hover around 1.3% in coming years just like before, R&D programs like you've mentioned (and of course a lot more) will continue to be well funded.

 

[FuturePAF]

Exactly, that's what I guess is the guiding principle. With limited budget, prioritize R&D to develop comprehensive military strength in all domains, no need to rush on numbers (especially tactical-level equipment) given current standing scale is already quite sizeable. Or put it simply, adding already known equipment is never priority of spending money, programs on "yet-to-be known" military tech is. I think defence spend will still hover around 1.3% in coming years just like before, R&D programs like you've mentioned (and of course a lot more) will continue to be well funded.

The best example is the new rifle; QBZ-191. It’s finally a modern rifle (same caliber rounds as current PLA rifle); equal to US equipment but will probably be bought in limited numbers (100,00s not millions), but I suspect, the Chinese already have a rifle in development equal to the future US rifle. Once that rifle is ready, China will go into full scale mass production.

 

[925boy]

Fair point, we shouldn’t be surprised considering what else China has been able to do? Btw, how many J-20s do you think China is producing a year?

Hmm...i'm not sure, buti just feel its better to assume - ambitious and "not light". China is planning how to plan in the back end/CCP/military leadership....its good to assume CHina will invest, releatively, more in J-20 than older frames...why? it closes the divide between PLA and US military quicker...China has 1st world money access and opportunity and behaves acordingly, esp its leadership. Underestimating China will be like underestimating taliban X1000.

 

[Shotgunner51]

The best example is the new rifle; QBZ-191. It’s finally a modern rifle (same caliber rounds as current PLA rifle); equal to US equipment but will probably be bought in limited numbers (100,00s not millions), but I suspect, the Chinese already have a rifle in development equal to the future US rifle. Once that rifle is ready, China will go into full scale mass production.

This is a beautiful rifle! Some visitors at Zhuhai Airshow had the chance to play with it and were deeply impressed by its quality/craftmanship, well I don't know much about it perhaps a land weapon expert here like Zarvan can shed some light.