U.S. sees China's rise as no threat

[gambit]

Soviet Union ALSO ran spy flights and from the other direction; no mention of this in Soviet archives either.

China's main agricultural regions, besides Henan and Sichuan, are on the coast. Evidence of mass starvation, death due to starvation, and/or disposing of the bodies resulting from such would've been easily seen by at least ONE contemporary, if that's true at all.

So lets list some facts from 1960:

1. My grandfather, who was a political criminal in the 1960's, survived, and saw no one die. Logically, you'd think that they'd starve the political criminals to death first.
2. There's no mention of this event or associated events in Soviet records.
3. There's no mention of this event or associated events in US or allied records.
4. There's no mention of this event or associated events in China's state records.
5. Every book written about this event was written in the 1980's at the earliest, 30 years after it took place.

In the older thread about the GLF, I posted a demographics chart that showed that 90% of the cohort born in 1955-1965 were still alive and remaining in China as of 1990.

No need to argue about this here though, its off topic and it is just a reply to a dumb@ss troll.

So let me get this straight...

You got no problems with believing that the US committed genocide against the Native Americans despite the same lack of evidences you wanted us to use for the deaths associated with China's Great Leap Forward. Be careful before answering because right now am looking at a declassified 1960 CIA study paper on the Sino-Soviet relationship that mentions the flaws and results of the 'communes' Mao demanded in China.

Check that out. Mao is saying that everyone in China should work for free. Wonder what happened to that scheme. Who among the Chinese members here would work for free?

So Mao exaggerated the success of the commune experiment and the Great Leap Forward to the Soviets who already knew about the flaws of the entire program. What are the odds that the Soviets knew exactly what was going to happen and what did happened?

 

[below_freezing]

So let me get this straight...

You got no problems with believing that the US committed genocide against the Native Americans despite the same lack of evidences you wanted us to use for the deaths associated with China's Great Leap Forward. Be careful before answering because right now am looking at a declassified 1960 CIA study paper on the Sino-Soviet relationship that mentions the flaws and results of the 'communes' Mao demanded in China.

Check that out. Mao is saying that everyone in China should work for free. Wonder what happened to that scheme. Who among the Chinese members here would work for free?

So Mao exaggerated the success of the commune experiment and the Great Leap Forward to the Soviets who already knew about the flaws of the entire program. What are the odds that the Soviets knew exactly what was going to happen and what did happened?

However, the CIA source portrays Liu Shaoqi as a radical, when in reality he was the moderate who opposed the entire plan. That places credibility questions on the entire source.

Great Leap Forward - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"A moderate faction within the party and Politburo member Liu Shaoqi argued that change should be gradual and any collectivization of the peasantry should wait until industrialization, which could provide the agricultural machinery for mechanized farming. A more radical faction led by Mao Zedong agreed that the best way to finance industrialization was for the government to take control of agriculture, thereby establishing a monopoly over grain distribution and supply. This would allow the state to buy at a low price and sell much higher, thus raising the capital necessary for the industrialization of the country."

Even if true (which I have severe doubts), China's death rates in the worst days of the Great Leap Forward were lower than that of Hong Kong in 1930.

Chart - Population Growth, Crude Birth & Death Rates, 1949-1996

Elsevier

The LOWEST death rate in HK in a 35 year period 1897-1931 was 33/1000; in contrast, the highest death rate in the GLF, according to Western sources (the Institute for Complex Systems Analysis in Austria) it never goes past 25/1000. Now if you think that mainland China had better healthcare 10 years after the ending of a civil war, than Hong Kong did, I got another 5000 dollar Pentagon coffee machine to sell you.

 

[gambit]

However, the CIA source portrays Liu Shaoqi as a radical, when in reality he was the moderate who opposed the entire plan. That places credibility questions on the entire source.

That CIA study paper is pretty dry, as they usually are. The CIA was not trying to 'portray' anyone in any light. Even though this was back in 1960, The People's Daily, Pravda, Tass, and assorted communist propaganda 'newspapers' were available for all to study. It was against these propaganda that empirical data were held. Soviet archives are now available and they correlated with independent Western investigators regarding what the Soviets knew of the commune experiment in China and its disastrous results.

You cannot lie for the state today any more than Mao could pull the wool over the people's eyes back then.

 

[S10]

Economically, Mao was clueless as to how to run a state. I'll give him credit for building an industrial bases as well as basic infrastructure. He brought both hope and misery to Chinese people. With that said, I do not like the guy at all.

 

[below_freezing]

That CIA study paper is pretty dry, as they usually are. The CIA was not trying to 'portray' anyone in any light. Even though this was back in 1960, The People's Daily, Pravda, Tass, and assorted communist propaganda 'newspapers' were available for all to study. It was against these propaganda that empirical data were held. Soviet archives are now available and they correlated with independent Western investigators regarding what the Soviets knew of the commune experiment in China and its disastrous results.

You cannot lie for the state today any more than Mao could pull the wool over the people's eyes back then.

Yes, I see your paper. But I don't see what your point is. Even President Liu Shaoqi and Marshal Peng Dehuai opposed the communes. But the presence of the communes themselves, does not speak for a necessarily high death rate, nor can they be viewed as the cause of any high death rate. Any calculation of total deaths would have to subtract a few things:

1.) emigration from China
2.) reduced births during famine
3.) the deaths above the prevailing death rate

Now, if you really think that China in 1950's had a much lower death rate than Hong Kong (of Britain) in 1931, then I don't know what to say.

 

[gambit]

Yes, I see your paper. But I don't see what your point is. Even President Liu Shaoqi and Marshal Peng Dehuai opposed the communes.

The point is that you are a liar for the state.

But the presence of the communes themselves, does not speak for a necessarily high death rate, nor can they be viewed as the cause of any high death rate.

The communes were part of an grand communist experiment that Mao intended to bypass the socialist one. It is this grand experiment that resulted in the famines, the political purges, and even the destruction of the family unit that caused the deaths...

Tell us...Since you often pined for the return of Mao do you support the state rearing China's children? Is that not the goal of socialism/communism: From womb to tomb by the all wise State?

Any calculation of total deaths would have to subtract a few things:

1.) emigration from China
2.) reduced births during famine
3.) the deaths above the prevailing death rate

Now, if you really think that China in 1950's had a much lower death rate than Hong Kong (of Britain) in 1931, then I don't know what to say.

Death rate or total deaths? In the 1950s, HK's population were in the low 2 mils. How many were murdered by Mao during the Great Leap Forward?

The Soviets pressured China into abandoning the commune experiment and the resultant Great Leap Forward into romanticized communism. Further into the experiment would collapse China and leave the Soviet Union as the sole authority figure in the communist world. Despite the Sino-Soviet divide, this was not a desirable position for the Soviets, especially after their investment into China in fighting the US in the Korean War that ended in a strategic stalemate.

Still think the Soviets does not know how many died in that inhumane period called 'The Great Leap Forward'?

 

[GSK]

What is the point? Yeah, the great leap forward is really bad, nobody like it. But it is better than what the western had done in Africa, and even in india, which are the biggest tragedy in history. My queation is do you really care about Chinese people, or you just want to use this to bash China? No answer is necessary, we can feel it, and that is why you get our answers that dissapointed you. It is useless, Chinese people know China better than you, they have their own judgement and love their country no matter what you say about it. Without Chinese people's dedication to China, we won't achieve our economic progress in the last 30 years. Happy?

 

[CardSharp]

What is the point? Yeah, the great leap forward is really bad, nobody like it. But it is better than what the western had done in Africa, and even in india, which are the biggest tragedy in history. My queation is do you really care about Chinese people, or you just want to use this to bash China? No answer is necessary, we can feel it, and that is why you get our answers that dissapointed you. It is useless, Chinese people know China better than you, they have their own judgement and love their country no matter what you say about it. Without Chinese people's dedication to China, we won't achieve our economic progress in the last 30 years. Happy?

People here keep forgetting this little fact.

India seems to manage to fill its cupboard with more skeletons every eight years than China put there in its years of shame, 1958-1961

India: Economic Development and Social Opportunity, Amartya Sen with Jean Drèze, 1995.


The GLF was a man made political famine but so are India's famine(s).

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

Economically, Mao was clueless as to how to run a state. I'll give him credit for building an industrial bases as well as basic infrastructure. He brought both hope and misery to Chinese people. With that said, I do not like the guy at all.

What good thing Mao did for the chinese people after the PRC establishment is that in 1976 he died.

 

[no_name]

First guy of any new transition period is pretty much always a strongman.
It's the only way to survive the intense military and political competition.

 

[CardSharp]

First guy of any new transition period is pretty much always a strongman.
It's the only way to survive the intense military and political competition.

There's always that question "what if Mao died after the Korean war...."

Think the likes of Liu Xiaoqi would have taken over, what the direction of the PRC would have been is then up in the air.

 

[no_name]

I don't think we can ever make assumptions for history, only learn from it.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

There's always that question "what if Mao died after the Korean war...."

Think the likes of Liu Xiaoqi would have taken over, what the direction of the PRC would have been is then up in the air.

No idea really.

China might have gone back into the Warlord Era, or maybe another revolution.

In hindsight, a strongman was absolutely needed to unite such an enormous country.

 

[CardSharp]

I don't think we can ever make assumptions for history, only learn from it.

Yeah I am of the same mind, but it's a popular what if question

No idea really.

China might have gone back into the Warlord Era, or maybe another revolution.

In hindsight, a strongman was absolutely needed to unite such an enormous country.

I don't know if a strongman was necessary but Mao certainly did unify the country pretty strongly.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I don't know if a strongman was necessary but Mao certainly did unify the country pretty strongly.

Absolutely. Unity is the most important thing.

The only thing I'm concerned about nowadays, was the borrowed idea from the Soviet Union, of creating "ethnic minority provinces" (autonomous regions).

Almost all of them have a Han majority anyway. Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Guangxi, etc.