I understand. So do the Americans. It is part and parcel of war gaming.
Yes! They do. And this is why they do not take such a bold step. They are not idiots.
Remember 9/11? Most terrorists involved are believed to be Saudi Nationals. And yet! Saudi Arabia was not attacked. Does this gives you any hint?
War-gaming can be done for many kinds of scenarios. However, it is not necessary that all of such plans will be feasible to carry out until or unless geopolitical scenario favors them.
I understand that there will be over a billion very pissed off people worldwide. That is not in question. Their collective response is.
Do not underestimate the power of religious motivation - even in modern times. Collective response (or at minimum: state of readiness) will be of surprising proportions.
Institutional, Military and Asymmetric. Social and Cultural and Economic. Civilian - unfriendly and friendly collateral. That is all part of war gaming.
When people will UNITE! All of these factors will not matter much. United Islamic front will be a force to be reckoned with.
If you do not understand your enemy and predict his moves, all you can do when the time comes is depend on training and react situationally. Most advanced military powers do not find that adequate anymore.
This is interesting point. Question is that which particular Islamic nation USA will decide to hit after Saudi Arabia? Maybe Pakistan? You can then expect Iran to directly support Pakistan in this hypothetical scenario. And China may also supply weapons to Pakistan. This front will definitely become more challenging.
The midle east oil fields will not be damaged. Not by the Americans. Nor allowed to the locals by means of sabotage. Two Gulf Wars as well as the 10 year Iran-Iraq war before should have shown you how it can and will be done.
Access to Middle East OIL will be certainly denied to the aggressor. It will be also used to gather some level of International Support against the aggressor. Interesting! Isn't it?
Even if USA does not needs Middle East OIL, there are many other interested customers. These nations will be definitely concerned.
The military might of the enemy will be neutralized first. As will Pakistani nukes in the first wave. Followed by tactical bombing of utilities and infrastructure. Power grids, railroads, bridges, dams, water works, refineries, fuel depots.
Look at the world map:
Now tell me genius! Is it really possible to perform conventional strikes on such a gigantic scale as you pointed out? And accomplish total breakthrough in a short span of time? Even if all seven US fleets are put to use, it may take a year to cripple so many nations with conventional means. And such an operation will be very expensive.
And you assume that Pakistan will not get ready for confrontation after strikes in Saudi Arabia? Pakistan may even give some nukes to Iran to boost its security.
If that does not bring the countries to their knees, this would in all probability then be followed by nukes on small to medium sized urban pockets. Casualties sub-hundred thousand, timed and executed to limit fallout (seasonal, wind patterns, etc.).
By that time, Israel and India will be done with.
Occupation will not be the objective. Quarantine will.
Overseas muslims will come in to the picture. Countries such as UK and India are specially vulnerable due to sizable populace of muslims in these countries. And quarantine cannot be imposed by a single aggressor on such a grand scale unless the rest of the world cooperates.
Neighboring countries will be forced to close their borders and forcibly prevent survivors from streaming across to escape the fallout.
As hinted above, many non-Islamic states will not necessarily support the aggressor or cooperate with it in this kind of war.
No nation will stand in the way of American nukes and the victim nation.
China and Russia may intervene if nuclear fallout effects them and pressurize USA to give up. In case of Pakistan, nuclear fallout will definitely effect China.
This will all have been played out in the war gaming. Pakistan nukes will be neutralized before the first wave.
This may happen but nuclear fallout will effect both India and China and these states will be pissed.
Not just by American special forces, but by Russian and Chinese ones in tandem.
Is this joke of the century? You expect China and Russia to support USA in this kind of scenario?
On what basis? Or are you assuming a GLOBAL COALITION against the Islamic front?
Worst case scenario, Pakistan does get a few off and India gets hit. Collateral friendly casualties in a few hundreds of thousands. Maybe millions. Not near to an existential threat. It will never come close to that were Pakistan to start assembling. NFU is a doctrine. It is not the word of God. That will also be part of the war gaming.
Nuclear attack on India will scare off International Investors from this country and Indian economy will collapse. Result: more misery.
Please remember that neither will India stand in the way, nor will the US back off for India. Its the price we pay for where we are and who our neighbor is. It is also something that the Indian war machine will be war gaming for in its own way for when and if the time comes.
This does not surprises me. However, China will definitely not support USA unless geopolitical scenario is vastly different from what we have witnessed in our times.
As will the Israelis and the Chinese.
There will be no uninterested parties here.
Stop day dreaming! Genius.
The war against Islamic front only becomes feasible if the rest of the world is willing to assist USA and tolerate the resulting fallout. You are presenting a fictional scenario.
Unless USA is attacked by nukes from Islamic extremists!
Which is also a pure fantasy - it will not find the motivation to attack and destroy the entire Islamic front and neither it will be able to gather international support for such an ambitious adventure.
Point is not about the capability of USA. Point is about existing 'ground realities' that will come in to play in these hypothetical scenarios.